Can First Four Teams Make Deep NCAA Tournament Run?

Get expert analysis & odds for the 2026 NCAA First Four in Dayton. Then find out how often First Four teams advance in their NCAA Tournament brackets.
Can First Four Teams Make Deep NCAA Tournament Run?
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The yearly staple that has started each NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament for the past 15 years is back: The First Four in Dayton, Ohio. Eight teams look to advance to the main field of 64, which is when college basketball betting action picks up steam.

RotoWire.com broke down the odds on how First Four competitors have fared in Big Dance overall, setting the stage for the four games that'll tip off from the Buckeye State tonight and tomorrow night.

NCAA Tournament
First Four Results History
How at-large play-in winners have fared since 2011  ·  No. 16 seeds excluded unless they won their first-round game
Year Team 1 Result Team 2 Result Team 3 Result Wins
2011 11VCU Final Four 12Clemson R1 Exit 4
2012 12South Florida Round of 32 14BYU R1 Exit 1
2013 11Saint Mary's R1 Exit 13La Salle Sweet 16 2
2014 11Tennessee Sweet 16 12NC State R1 Exit 2
2015 11Dayton Round of 32 11Mississippi R1 Exit 1
2016 11Wichita State Round of 32 11Michigan R1 Exit 1
2017 11Southern Cal Round of 32 11Kansas State R1 Exit 1
2018 11Syracuse Sweet 16 11St. Bonaventure R1 Exit 2
2019 11Arizona State R1 Exit 11Belmont R1 Exit 0
2020 No tournament — COVID-19
2021 11UCLA Final Four 11Drake R1 Exit 4
2022 11Notre Dame Round of 32 12Indiana R1 Exit 1
2023 11Pittsburgh Round of 32 11Arizona State R1 Exit 16Fairleigh Dick. Round of 32 2
2024 10Colorado Round of 32 10Colorado State R1 Exit 1
2025 11Xavier R1 Exit 11North Carolina R1 Exit 0
Combined wins by all First Four advancers (2011–2025, excl. 2020) 22
Final Four
Sweet 16
Round of 32
R1 Exit

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The 2026 First Four schedule (all times Eastern):

  • No. 16 UMBC vs. Howard, 6:40 p.m. tonight
  • No. 11 Texas vs. North Carolina State, approximately 9:15 tonight
  • No. 16 Prairie View A&M vs. Lehigh, 6:40 p.m. Wednesday
  • No. 11 Miami (Ohio) vs. SMU, 9:15, approximately 9:15 Wednesday

All four games are airing on truTV.

Who To Watch For In Men's First Four

The team that has perhaps garnered the most ink in the First Four is the Miami (Ohio) RedHawks. But that has not done them any favors with college basketball betting sites.

The RedHawks were the last team to lose a game in the 2025-26 Division I campaign, remaining undefeated throughout the regular season at 31-0 before falling to UMass, 87-83, in the quarterfinals of the MAC Tournament.

With that magical run, the RedHawks became one of 25 teams since 1948 to finish the regular season unblemished. But now the MAC regular-season champs face an uphill battle a stone's throw from their home campus (see 2026 NCAA Tournament Travel Mileage: Every First-Round Team's Trip, Mapped for more on that topic).

Miami is a heavy underdog against SMU on Wednesday to determine the 11th seed in the Midwest Region. At bet365 Sportsbook, the Mustangs were favored by 7 points as of Tuesday afternoon.

Another storyline entering this year's First Four is about tonight's game between North Carolina State and Texas, to decide the No. 11 seed in the West Region. Both teams will try to find their footing after sputtering down the stretch.

Will Wade's Wolfpack bunch from Raleigh climbed as high as No. 23 in the polls in late November. But N.C. State could not find its groove after that, finishing 10-8 in ACC play and 20-13 overall.

Texas is listed as a 1.5-point favorite with FanDuel Sportsbook. Sean Miller's first squad at Texas squeaked into the field after going 18-14 overall (9-9 SEC). But the Longhorns defeated the Wolfpack at the early-season Maui Invitational, 102-97, potentially setting the stage for a high-scoring affair in Dayton tonight.

The two games between No. 16 seeds are equally close with sportsbooks. The "Beltway Battle" between UMBC and Howard is expected to be the tighter of the two. BetRivers Sportsbook is listing the Retrievers as a 1.5-point favorite for tonight's game over the MEAC champs from D.C. The winner of that game will claim the final seed in the Midwest Region.

In the other clash involving the lowest-seeded teams in the field of 68, to settle the No. 16 seed in the South Region, the Patriot League champions from Lehigh are slight favorites.

The Mountain Hawks are spotting 3.5 points against the SWAC champion Prairie View A&M Panthers, according to oddsmakers at Caesars Sportsbook.

How Have First Four Teams Fared

After a bang-up start for the debut class of First Four teams in 2011, things have slowed a bit in recent years.

The most recent team to take the court at UD Arena and advance to the second weekend was UCLA in 2021. Those Bruins made it all the way to the Final Four before bowing out against Gonzaga.

Since then, four of the nine teams we surveyed have won a single tournament game: Notre Dame in 2022, 11th seed Pittsburgh and 16th seed Fairleigh Dickinson in 2023, then Colorado in 2024.

No. 13 seed La Salle reached the Sweet 16 in 2013, as did 11th seed Tennessee the following year and Syracuse in 2018.

In total, that inaugural 2011 First Four class compiled four wins after leaving Dayton, thanks to Shaka Smart's VCU Final Four team. Those four wins are still tied for the most combined victories after the First Four, along with 2021 (that UCLA Final Four team).

Four other NCAA Tournaments saw that year's crop of First Four teams win two games overall: In 2012 (that La Salle Sweet 16 team), 2014 (Tennessee Sweet 16 run), 2018 (Syracuse Sweet 16 trip) and 2023 (with Pitt and FDU both reaching the second round).

Whether the RedHawks, Wolfpack, Mustangs, Longhorns, Retrievers, Bison, Mountain Hawks or Panthers will add to that win total remains to be seen. Fans and customers at sportsbook apps won't have to wait long to find out. Can any of the eight teams taking the floor in Dayton over the next two nights go on to make a deep run in the men's NCAA Basketball Tournament?

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Christopher has covered the sports betting industry for more than seven years, and takes the lead on both sports analysis and legislative developments for GDC Group. His work has also appeared on ArizonaSports.com, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.
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