March Madness Final Four: Arizona vs. Michigan Game Picks & Predictions
Matchup: In his fifth year at the helm of Arizona, Tommy Lloyd is making his first trip to the Final Four and will face the remaining No. 1 seed Michigan, led by second-year coach Dusty May, who will be making his second Final Four appearance after taking Florida Atlantic there in 2023. Clearly the two best teams left in the tournament after Duke's collapse Sunday, the winner will be the favorite come Monday. Both teams have had to overcome some adversity -- Arizona trailed Purdue at the half in the Elite Eight, while Michigan was down after 20 minutes to Alabama in the Sweet 16. Still, both teams have been equally impressive, having won all four of their games by double digits.
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Arizona, West Region No. 1 Seed
Backcourt: The Wildcats are led by Big 12 Player of the Year Jaden Bradley, and the senior point guard is paired in the backcourt with freshman Brayden Burries. Bradley wasn't heavily involved in the offense this past weekend, with single-digit shot attempts in both games despite logging 38 and 33 minutes, respectively. He did keep the offense flowing with 11 total assists, as Arizona lit up Arkansas for 109 points and 48 second-half points against Purdue. Meanwhile, Burries has had an excellent tournament run, averaging 17.8 points and 6.3 boards while shooting 58 percent from the field. Off the bench, 6-6 senior Anthony Dell'Orso is mainly relied upon for his three-point shooting and can provide quite the spark at times, as evidenced by his 26-point showing against Iowa State in the Big 12 semifinals.
Frontcourt: The key piece to Arizona's frontcourt is 7-2 center Motiejus Krivas, who is a huge reason why Arizona ranks second in the country in defensive efficiency and opponent two-point field goal percentage, per KenPom. In his first year as a starter, the junior from Lithuania is averaging 1.9 blocks and has supplied nine double-doubles. Star freshman Koa Peat starts alongside Krivas in the frontcourt and is much more involved offensively, posting 20 points in back-to-back games.
X-Factor: Ivan Kharchenkov. It's easy to forget about the freshman wing amongst this talented group, but Kharchenkov has been held to single figures just once since the start of the Big 12 Tournament. He's only taken 18.3 percent of the team's shots when on the floor, but his scoring is needed considering the Wildcats don't tend to give many minutes to their bench in big games. We saw that in the win against Purdue when he provided 18 points on 7-of-11 shooting, and his 17 points and three steals were pivotal in the aforementioned narrow victory over Iowa State.
Who They Beat to Get Here:
LIU 92-58
Utah St. 78-66
Arkansas 109-88
Purdue 79-64
Arizona Will Win IF: It forces Michigan into tough contested jump shots. With the presence of Krivas protecting the rim, high-percentage shots near the basket aren't going to be easy to come by. In the losses to Purdue and Duke, the Wolverines combined to shoot 13-of-49 (26.5 percent) from three, and it's hard to imagine it'll prevail with a poor perimeter shooting performance. Michigan has four players shooting at least 37 percent from three with at least 1.5 threes made per game, so the Wolverines certainly capable of getting hot from deep.
Prediction: This game will have somewhat of a national championship feel to it being the only two one-seeds remaining. Michigan opened as a one-point favorite, so we've basically got a 50/50 proposition on our hands. Arizona relies heavily on driving to the basket and getting to the free throw line. That's going to be a difficult task against a disciplined Michigan squad that doesn't tend to get into foul trouble and starts a pair of 6-9 forwards with 7-3 Aday Mara in the middle. Add in the experience edge, and my money is on Michigan to make it back to the National Championship for the first time since 2018.
Written by Ryan Pohle.
Matchup: The No. 1 seeded Michigan Wolverines are making their ninth trip to the Final Four and are looking for their second National Championship in school history after having previously cut down the nets in 1989. They take on an Arizona Wildcat squad that is making its fifth appearance in the Final Four and is also looking for its second championship. Michigan coach Dusty May is making his second trip to the Final Four after taking Florida Atlantic in 2023, while Arizona's Tommy Lloyd will be making his first trip as a head coach.. This will be the first-ever tournament matchup between the two schools.
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Michigan, Midwest Region No. 1 Seed
Backcourt: Michigan's backcourt is led by junior point guard Elliot Cadeau, who joined the Wolverines this season after spending his first two collegiate seasons at North Carolina. With Michigan's strength lying in the interior, they rely on a steady presence at the point guard position and that's exactly what Cadeau brings. Cadeau averages 10.3 points and connects on 37.5 percent from deep while being the team's leading facilitator with 5.7 assists per contest.
Cadeau's role has increased even further since the loss of his primary backup, LJ Cason, the team's best three-point threat, to a torn ACL in late February, seeing his minutes rise from 25.3 to 32.0 in his stead. Since the start of the tournament, Cadeau has seen his assist total climb to 8.3 while turning the ball over just 1.8 times per contest and connecting on 40.0 percent of his triples.
Alongside Cadeau, the Wolverines mix and match between Nimari Burnett, Trey McKenney and Roddy Gayle, who combine to average 25.5 points and are each seeing between 22 and 24 minutes in Cason's absence with Burnett and McKenney each draining better than 38 percent of their shots from beyond the arc.
Frontcourt: The Michigan frontcourt is the team's bread and butter and has been the most effective unit in the country this season. Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson and Aday Mara are the team's three leading scorers and rebounders and lead a defensive unit that finished second in the nation with 6.1 blocks per contest. Lendeborg is a 6-foot-9 senior who came over from UAB after a monster junior season with the Blazers and led the team with 14.9 points while finishing second on the team with 7.0 boards and 3.3 assists, earning Big Ten conference player of the year honors in the process. Lendeborg, who is also a finalist for the Naismith award as the national player of the year, is a true inside/outside threat and has been used as a point forward to help spell Cadeau while shooting 37.4 percent from three.
Johnson, a 6-foot-9 sophomore, finished second on the team in scoring with 13.2 points and led the team with 7.3 boards while the 7-foot-3 Mara was the team's third leading scorer (11.8) and rebounder (6.8) and is also one of the premier shot alterers in the country, averaging 2.6 blocks to earn distinction as the conference's defensive player of the year.
X-Factor: Versatility. There are multiple X-factors in this game, but versatility tops the list.
It's not just that the Wolverines are big, it's that their bigs can do just about anything on the floor. The loss of a spark plug off the bench like point guard L.J. Cason could be a death blow to many teams, and through the Big Ten tournament, Michigan definitely showed some vulnerability as coach Dusty May searched for answers as to exactly how they should replace him.
The answer has come in two forms that arguably has Michigan playing its best basketball of the season. Yaxel Lendeborg has taken over as the de facto backup point guard for Elliot Cadeau. The Wolverines have also begun to utilize Aday Mara as a ball distributor from within the post. Prior to being held without an assist during Michigan's domination of Tennessee in the Elite Eight, Mara had averaged five assists against just 1.3 turnovers in the previous three tourney games.
Considering their defensive prowess, their ability to control the glass and that all three big men shoot well north of 50 percent, the guard-like capabilities of Michigan's big men make this team nearly impossible to shut down.
Who They Beat to Get Here:
Howard 108-80
Saint Louis 95-72
Alabama 90-77
Tennessee 95-62
Michigan Will Win If: The backcourt role players continue to step up. We've addressed Michigan's talent and versatility inside and have also talked about the ascent of Elliot Cadeau into the perfect playmaking catalyst for this team. However, the secret X-factor behind Michigan's dominance throughout the tourney has been the play of the rest of their backcourt.
While graduate senior Nimari Burnett has started every game this season at the two, senior Roddy Gayle and freshman Trey McKenney have been equally involved with each averaging roughly 23-24 minutes per game during the tournament. Despite being overshadowed by Michigan's more publicized stars, this trio has combined to post 31.6 points and 11.3 rebounds while making 5.4 triples at a 48.6-percent clip per game. Their play is the separator for Michigan and if they continue to step up, the Wolverines are nearly unstoppable.
Prediction: Ever since the bracket came out, many have had this potential Final Four matchup circled. While Iowa State was lauded by some as a threat to Michigan (including by yours truly), the early loss of Joshua Jefferson did them in and helped clear the path for a matchup between the two teams that have consistently performed as the best in the country this season.
Michigan has the advantage inside, though Arizona also has the horses in the interior to stand toe-to-toe with Michigan's vaunted trio. And while Arizona has the backcourt edge with the steady leadership of senior Jaden Bradley and the dynamic playmaking ability of freshman Brayden Burries, the advantage isn't nearly as glaring as some may think as Michigan's Elliot Cadeau has been as steady as they come and his trio of backcourt mates have been fantastic throughout the tournament.
Both teams are ranked in the top five offensively according to KenPom while Michigan is first and Arizona second in defensive efficiency. In a matchup this even across the board, I think the slight edge comes down to our third X-factor–Dusty May. The Michigan coach had FAU a whisker away from an appearance in the 2023 title game and has now lifted a team that won just eight games two years ago into the Final Four. After a bit of a lackluster performance through the Big Ten tourney that appeared to expose some vulnerabilities, May has Michigan playing at its peak level.
Tommy Lloyd finally got Arizona over the hump and into the Final Four, but it feels like it's Michigan's year. I'm taking the Wolverines to win a classic and advance to the national title game for the first time since 2018.
Written by Brian Williams.
