RotoWire.com, as part of our college basketball betting coverage, used the AI tool Gemini to predict the March Madness bracket for the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. Now that we're down to 16 teams, we broke down the projections from here on out, including the percentage of times that each team won throughout the 100 simulated results.
AI Picks 
East
South
Sweet 16: Who Makes It Out?
For this week's third-round matchups, our projections show only one upset. After 100 simulations of the Sweet 16, fourth seed 
Alabama takes out the second No. 1 seed of the tournament.
In that Midwest Region semifinal, Nate Oats' team is projected to win a track meet over the Big Ten regular season champs and No. 1 seed Michigan, 94-91. If that happens, the Crimson Tide would reach the Elite Eight for a third straight season.
At Caesars Sportsbook, the Wolverines are a 10-point favorite for the Sweet 16 matchup (7:35 p.m. Eastern time Friday).
Other than that predicted upset, our projections are all chalk in the Sweet 16. Duke has the largest margin of victory (82-70 over St. John's), followed by Iowa State over Tennessee (73-65). Nebraska's edge was the smallest with the Cornhuskers topping Iowa, 71-68.
In between, you'll find the Arizona Wildcats knocking off John Calipari's Arkansas Razorbacks, 85-79, while Purdue handles Texas (77-71). In our projections, Houston takes care of business against Illinois, 66-61; ditto for UConn over Michigan State, 74-69.
Elite Eight: How Much Chalk Will We See?
In our latest batch of projections, it appears that upper seeds will once again have the upper hand. The only upset is Alabama again, clinching a spot in the Final Four in Indianapolis by knocking off second seed Iowa State, 88-82.
The other three higher seeds are favored. No. 1 seed Arizona is projected to knock off Purdue, 80-74, while No. 1 Duke (78-75 over UConn) and No. 2 Houston (69-58 over Nebraska) all are expected to make it to the National Semifinal.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, 
Arizona is the slight favorite to win the national title.
The Wildcats have +330 odds, followed by Michigan (+340) and Duke (+370).
The Cougars are the top seed remaining in the South Region after No. 1 Florida, the defending national champion, lost to No. 9 seed Iowa in the second round.
Final Four: Who Makes It To The Title Game?
In the National Semifinal, the dueling one seeded matchup between Arizona and Duke is expected to be high scoring, with the Blue Devils winning 84-81 in a rematch of the 2001 title game.
A win over Arizona would push Jon Scheyer's bunch into the title game for the first time since Duke won it all in 2015. The Blue Devils' Final Four defeat against Houston last year is the closest they've come since.
On the other end of the Final Four bracket, you'll find Kelvin Sampson's 
Houston Cougars.
According to the projections, Houston will make the national final for the second year in a row by defeating the Crimson Tide, outlasting Alabama, 74-72.
After a jam-packed March for betting action, the Final Four will give sports betting apps an early boost in April.
National Final: Who Cuts Down The Nets in Indy?
In a projected defensive slugfest, Duke is projected to cut down the nets in Indy, defeating Houston 72-68 in the national championship game.
UH head coach Kelvin Sampson has reached three Final Fours (in 2002, 2021 and 2025), but still seeks his first national title.
But we have 
Duke snapping an 11-year title drought, earning the first national title under head coach Jon Scheyer.
As far as which team wins the whole thing most often, Duke leads after 100 simulations, taking the crown 31% of the time. That's followed by Arizona (22%), Houston (16%) and Alabama (12%).
