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The 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament is around the corner. So it's high time for the highs of March Madness to kick in across the country, consuming hoops fans of all backgrounds and making college basketball betting a hot sports topic.
RotoWire.com used the AI tool Gemini to predict the March Madness bracket for the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. RotoWire.com broke the tournament out by round, along with the percentage of times that the top 20 most successful teams won throughout the 100 simulated results.
Who Could Make Noise in March Madness?
The men's basketball team atop stats wiz Ken Pomeroy's KenPom rankings, and the NCAA's in-house NET rankings, is tabbed to cut down the nets in Indianapolis come April 6. This should be no surprise for customers at sports betting apps who follow college hoops.
Michigan is the pick to win it all this spring, with coach Dusty May's squad expected to roll through March Madness.
In our projected bracket, UM's path goes like this: Beating 16th seed Southeastern Missouri (88-52), eighth seed Utah State (81-66), fifth seed Arkansas (82-71), No. 2 seeds Purdue (74-70) and Houston (68-64) and finally Arizona in the championship game, 81-79.
Michigan's most recent trip to the championship game came in 2018, when John Beilein led the Wolverines to the final before they bowed out to Villanova, 79-62. The Wolverines have made two national final appearances since 2013, though the school's other trip ended on a sour note as well, with UM falling to Louisville 82-76, in 2013.
2026 NCAA National Champion · Gemini AI prediction
Championship Game
MIC
Michigan Midwest
76
✓
ARI
Arizona West
72
→
🏆
Gemini's 2026 NCAA Champion
Michigan
Final: 76–72
MIC
Zoom:100%Scroll to zoom · Click+drag to pan
2026 NCAA MARCH MADNESS · GEMINI AI PREDICTIONS
Midwest Region
R1
1
Michigan
88
16
SEMO
52
8
Utah State
74
9
Miami
71
5
Arkansas
79
12
Belmont
70
4
Virginia
65
13
Liberty
58
6
Iowa
76
11
Miami (OH)
75
3
Illinois
84
14
ETSU
62
7
Wisconsin
69
10
Texas A&M
67
2
Purdue
82
15
Navy
60
R2
1
Michigan
81
8
Utah State
66
4
Virginia
68
5
Arkansas
72
3
Illinois
80
6
Iowa
74
2
Purdue
75
7
Wisconsin
69
S16
1
Michigan
82
5
Arkansas
71
2
Purdue
79
3
Illinois
75
E8
1
Michigan
74
2
Purdue
70
West Region
R1
1
Arizona
94
16
Howard
61
8
SMU
70
9
Auburn
73
5
Tennessee
77
12
S. Florida
69
4
Kansas
88
13
High Point
72
6
BYU
79
11
Texas
76
3
Gonzaga
80
14
N. Dakota St
68
7
Villanova
72
10
Indiana
70
2
Iowa State
85
15
Wright St
63
R2
1
Arizona
84
9
Auburn
75
4
Kansas
76
5
Tennessee
73
3
Gonzaga
75
6
BYU
73
2
Iowa State
74
7
Villanova
66
S16
1
Arizona
77
4
Kansas
73
2
Iowa State
69
3
Gonzaga
67
E8
1
Arizona
85
2
Iowa State
80
East Region
R1
1
Duke
91
16
Bethune-Cookman
55
8
St. Mary's
64
9
Georgia
66
5
St. John's
82
12
S.F. Austin
66
4
Alabama
95
13
Utah Valley
78
6
Louisville
77
11
New Mexico
74
3
Nebraska
80
14
Austin Peay
63
7
Saint Louis
68
10
UCLA
71
2
UConn
84
15
Merrimack
59
R2
1
Duke
83
9
Georgia
67
4
Alabama
85
5
St. John's
88
2
UConn
72
10
UCLA
71
3
Nebraska
74
6
Louisville
60
S16
1
Duke
84
5
St. John's
75
3
Nebraska
79
2
UConn
77
E8
1
Duke
78
3
Nebraska
70
South Region
R1
1
Florida
89
16
LIU
54
8
NC State
74
9
UCF
72
5
Vanderbilt
66
12
Yale
68
4
Michigan State
73
13
UNCW
61
6
N. Carolina
77
11
Ohio State
72
3
Texas Tech
66
14
UC Irvine
61
7
Kentucky
73
10
Clemson
76
2
Houston
78
15
Portland St
49
R2
1
Florida
81
8
NC State
70
4
Michigan State
71
12
Yale
62
3
Texas Tech
66
6
North Carolina
64
2
Houston
68
10
Clemson
60
S16
1
Florida
76
4
Michigan State
72
2
Houston
70
3
Texas Tech
59
E8
1
Florida
60
2
Houston
63
⬦ FINAL FOUR ⬦
Midwest vs South
1
Michigan
68
✓
2
Houston
64
West vs East
1
Arizona
81
✓
1
Duke
79
🏆 NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP 🏆
CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
1
Michigan
76
✓
1
Arizona
72
→
🏆
2026 Champion
Michigan
76–72
MIC
Win % Simulation
Gemini AI probability model · 2026 NCAA Tournament · 10,000 simulated brackets
Gemini AI Model
Top Championship Contenders
🥇 Favorite
MIC
Michigan
18%
Projected Seed: #1
🥈 Contender
ARI
Arizona
15%
Projected Seed: #1
🥉 Dark Horse
DUK
Duke
13%
Projected Seed: #1
Full Simulation Rankings — All Teams
1
MIC
Michigan
Seed #1
18%
2
ARI
Arizona
Seed #1
15%
3
DUK
Duke
Seed #1
13%
4
HOU
Houston
Seed #2
11%
5
UCO
UConn
Seed #2
9%
6
IOW
Iowa State
Seed #2
7%
7
FLO
Florida
Seed #2
6%
8
PUR
Purdue
Seed #2
5%
9
ILL
Illinois
Seed #3
4%
10
GON
Gonzaga
Seed #3
3%
11
NEB
Nebraska
Seed #3
2%
12
KAN
Kansas
Seed #4
2%
13
VIR
Virginia
Seed #4
1%
14
MIC
Michigan State
Seed #4
1%
15
STJ
St. John's
Seed #5
1%
16
TEX
Texas Tech
Seed #4
1%
17
ALA
Alabama
Seed #5
0.5%
18
NOR
North Carolina
Seed #6
0.5%
19
BYU
BYU
Seed #6
< 0.5%
20
ARK
Arkansas
Seed #5
< 0.5%
Who Else Could Make Noise in March Madness?
UM gets top billing in our March Madness projections, but the Arizona Wildcats could finally be in line to snap the program's 25-year Final Four drought in 2026.
Coach Tommy Lloyd's team (25-2) is ranked No. 2 in the Associated Press poll, while sitting third overall on both KenPom.com and in the NCAA's NET rankings as of Wednesday morning.
To get to Indy (which was where Arizona won the program's lone national championship over Kentucky in 1997), Lloyd's team went through Howard, Auburn, Kansas, Iowa State and Duke in our projected bracket. If it happens for real, it would mark the Wildcats' first trip to the national final since a 2001 run that ended at the hands of the Blue Devils in Minneapolis.
A surprise candidate to go far this March is coach Fred Hoiberg's Nebraska Cornhuskers, who have zero men's NCAA Tournament wins in school history.
Our projections show Hoiberg's bunch earning a No. 3 seed, earning wins over Austin Peay, Louisville and UConn before eventually bowing out to Duke in the Elite Eight. At Caesars sportsbook, as of Feb. 25, the Cornhuskers have +1600 odds to make the Final Four.
The Cases For Duke And Houston
The other two teams that are projected to make the Final Four (Duke and Houston) are expected to do so as No. 1 and 2 seeds, respectively. We have the Blue Devils beating Bethune-Cookman, Georgia, St. John's and Nebraska before dropping a two-point game to Arizona in the national semifinal.
For the Houston Cougars, a third trip to the Final Four since 2021 would give head coach Kelvin Sampson his fourth trip to the Final Four (and third with Houston).
Our projections say that such a trek would come on the heels of wins over Portland State, Clemson, Texas Tech and Florida.
As for the national final, our projections show a back-and-forth affair between two of the strongest teams in men's college basketball, with the Wolverines emerging from a 76-72 slugfest with the Wildcats. Michigan seeks its second national title and first since Steve Fisher led them to paydirt in 1989 after he took over the job on the eve of the tournament.
Based on the current 2026 March Madness betting odds, it looks like Michigan is a safe bet to go far next month. The Wolverines hold prime championship odds on DraftKings Sportsbook (+380), bet365 (+375) and FanDuel (+370) as the madness of March approaches.
Christopher has covered the sports betting industry for more than seven years, and takes the lead on both sports analysis and legislative developments for GDC Group. His work has also appeared on ArizonaSports.com, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.
Continue the Conversation
Join the RotoWire Discord group to hear from our experts and other College Basketball fans.
Michigan is the pick to win it all this spring, with coach Dusty May's squad expected to roll through March Madness.
AI Picks 
Arizona Wildcats could finally be in line to snap the program's 25-year Final Four drought in 2026.
Nebraska Cornhuskers, who have zero men's NCAA Tournament wins in school history.
Houston Cougars, a third trip to the Final Four since 2021 would give head coach Kelvin Sampson his fourth trip to the Final Four (and third with Houston).
