RotoWire.com, as part of our college basketball betting insight, used the AI tool Gemini to predict the March Madness bracket for the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament.
RotoWire.com broke the tournament out by round, along with the percentage of times that the top 20 most successful teams won throughout the 100 simulated results.
Here is the full projected bracket, updated with teams that were announced on Selection Sunday. Take a deep dive into the entire field here:
AI Picks 
West
South
Also See: 2026 NCAA Tournament Travel Mileage: Every First-Round Team's Trip, Mapped
2026 NCAA Tournament Bracket: First Round
No region is projected for more upheaval than the South, which has three lower seeded teams advancing. That included the 
McNeese Cowboys.
Our simulations project McNeese to pull off one "12-vs.-5" upset this year, beating Vanderbilt, 75-72. There is one other 12 seed we have advancing (more on that later) but anyone who has followed the Big Dance at top sportsbook apps will know that 5 and 6 seeds are often in danger right out of the gate.
Throw in 11th seed VCU advancing over North Carolina (68-65) and ninth seed Iowa outlasting eighth-seeded Clemson (79-76) and you have the full rundown of the upsets in the South.
The Midwest Region projections had two upsets: No. 12 Akron over fifth seed Texas Tech (68-66) and ninth seed St. Louis outlasting No. 8 Georgia (75-72).
Conversely, the West region is projected to see one upset, with a First Four team advancing, then winning for a second time. We have No. 11 seed Texas knocking off sixth-seeded BYU, 76-72. The East is all chalk, with no upsets to speak of in 2026.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, there are only two lower-seeded teams favored as of Monday afternoon: No. 9 Iowa by 2.5 points against No. 8 Clemson in the South Region, and No. 9 Utah State by the same spread against eight-seeded Villanova in the West.
2026 NCAA Tournament Bracket: Second Round
No lower seeded teams were projected to advance to the Sweet 16 in this year's field, which would be very surprising.
Of the four regions, the East had the closest margin of victory for the advancing teams, finishing at 5.5 points between the winners and losers on average among four contests. The South saw the largest average margin of victory, at 9.75 points. At Caesars Sportsbook, Vanderbilt has -120 odds to reach the Sweet 126, the shortest odds of any team that does not have a top-four region seed. The Commodores are No. 5 in the South Region.
2026 NCAA Tournament Bracket: Third Round
Of the eight games slated to take place in this year's Sweet 16, our AI projections showed seven of the higher seeded teams advancing. The lone upset is fourth seed 
Alabama.
Our projections peg the Crimson Tide to take down top seed Michigan, 85-81. Bama has +1500 odds to reach the Final Four for customers using the FanDuel Sportsbook promo code today.
The West proved to be the tightest region. Arizona vs. Arkansas and Purdue vs. Gonzaga have a total margin of victory of eight points, averaging out to 4.0. The region with the largest margin of victory was the South, at 14 points (7.0 on average), with Florida beating Nebraska 84-72 and Houston outlasting Illinois, 71-69.
2026 NCAA Tournament Bracket: Region Finals
In the region finals, the biggest upset that our projections show is fourth seeded Alabama running past Iowa State, 88-83. We also have No. 2 Houston back in the Final Four, knocking off top seeded Florida, 72-70. The Gators beat the Cougars in the 2025 national title game.
The other two one seeds (Arizona and Duke) are expected to survive against Purdue (82-78) and UConn (77-74), setting the stage for an action-packed Final Four in Indianapolis in April. Both these projections and the latest college basketball betting odds project more chalk than usually happens in real life at the men's NCAA Basketball Tournament. In the past 10 tournaments since 2015, 11 teams seeded fifth or lower reached the Final Four. Then again, last year chalk was in, as all four No. 1 seeds won their regions.
2026 NCAA Tournament Bracket: National Semifinals
Kelvin Sampson's 
Houston Cougars are projected to make a repeat trip to the National Championship game.
A year after they lost the final to Florida, the Cougars return to the biggest game of the Big Dance by outlasting the Duke Blue Devils, 68-65, in our projected Final Four.
That would set the stage for an All-Big 12 finale, because we have Arizona getting revenge on Nate Oats that has been eight years in the making. Oats was the coach at Buffalo in 2018 when the Bulls handed the Wildcats a stunning first-round exit. This time, our simulations produced a 92-87 victory over Oats and the Crimson Tide.
At bet365 Sportsbook, the odds are very tight among the top three favorites. Duke has the best odds to win the national title at +340, followed by Arizona at +360 and Michigan at +375. The outlier among No. 1 seeds is Florida, because the defending national champion is listed at +750 to repeat.
2026 NCAA Tournament Bracket: National Championship Game
We're going with the hot hand – the Big 12 regular season and conference tournament champion 
Arizona Wildcats – to win the program's second national title (and first since 1997).
The Wildcats have the highest percentage of titles won in our total projection breakdown at 18%. Over the course of 100 simulated brackets, Arizona outlasted Sampson's Cougars club by an average score of 74-70.
In the first two showdowns, Arizona came away with hard-earned wins. Coach Tommy Lloyd's club won 73-66 in Houston on Feb. 21, then won the rematch 79-74 on Saturday in the Big 12 tournament final.
In any event, if the tourney is as thrilling as our projections predict, expect another instant classic between two of the best teams in the Big 12 on April 6 in Indianapolis. We have two teams named after big cats going toe-to-toe in the Hoosier State on the sport's biggest stage.
The best sports betting sites have wagering options galore for March Madness.
