This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
High-stakes conference action continues on Wednesday, as many more contending teams are in action. A few games on the slate could be the difference between a top-seed and middle-seed for some involved. Here are my predictions for three select games on Wednesday evening.
Kansas 
at Iowa State
The names and faces come and go, yet the Jayhawks once again have a potential championship-caliber roster. We still have a ways to go, but Kansas has assembled an outstanding resume, continuing its tradition of playing at an elite level. The Jayhawks rank seventh on KenPom's overall efficiency chart and have already defeated Michigan State, Duke, and Cincinnati, giving them an inside track to an at-large bid come March.
The Cyclones, meanwhile, sport an 11-game winning streak entering Wednesday and have collected several quality wins along the way. Iowa State has defeated Marquette, Iowa, Baylor, and Texas Tech, all while suffering just one loss. The Cyclones' only blemish is a two-point loss against Auburn during Feast Week, and there's not much shame, if any, in losing a close game to a team that is in the discussion for the best team in the nation.
Winning in Ames won't be easy, but Kansas does a couple of things well that give it a fighting chance of pulling it off. The Jayhawks have the second-best offensive rebounding percentage among all Big 12 teams since the conference season started, while the Cyclones rank 12th in the Big 12 in defensive rebounding. If this trend holds up, it's safe to say Kansas should see many put-back opportunities on Wednesday. This is a critical advantage because Iowa State is strong defensively in nearly every other category. The Jayhawks have the fifth-highest offensive efficiency rating in the Big 12 during conference play, with the Cyclones coming in at third on defense.
Looking at the other end of the court, we again have a tight matchup. That said, the Jayhawks actually have a slim edge over the Cyclones' potent offensive attack. Kansas has the best defensive efficiency rating in the conference during league play, and it also ranks first in two-point field goal percentage allowed, three-point field goal percentage allowed, and free-throw attempt rate allowed. The latter is a useful skill in this matchup because Iowa State has the highest free-throw attempt rate in the Big 12 during conference season. The Cyclones rank seventh in offensive efficiency among all D-1 teams for the whole season, and fourth in the Big 12 during conference play, so they know how to score as well as anyone, but at the same time, the Jayhawks' defense tops them in both categories.
Betting against Iowa State at home isn't easy, for good reason. The Cyclones are an elite team. Even still, getting points with the Kansas Jayhawks in any matchup is an opportunity that needs to be considered. In this case, Kansas is playing its best defense of the year and has been active on the offensive glass in recent games. All things considered, I'm taking the points with the Jayhawks.
College Basketball Best Bet: Kansas +6
Utah 
at TCU 
The Utes finally got their first Big 12 win, defending their home court against Oklahoma State last weekend. We don't want to minimize a win, but at the same time, it's worth pointing out that the Cowboys have the lowest overall efficiency rating among all Big 12 teams. This victory didn't qualify as a quality win, per KenPom, so Utah still doesn't have a resume-building win to its credit. It had opportunities against Mississippi State, Saint Mary's, Iowa, Baylor, Texas Tech, and Iowa State, with all but one game having a margin of nine points or more. The Utes played the sixth-easiest non-conference schedule among all 364 D-1 teams, so it's extremely doubtful we'll see this team playing late in March.
The Horned Frogs, on the other hand, rank 37th in strength of schedule, and they have the scars to prove it. They earned notable wins over Xavier and BYU but suffered all six losses in games that would've qualified for a quality victory, per KenPom. TCU also appears to have a long shot at making the NCAA Tournament, although it showed a sign of life when it defeated BYU this past weekend. We'll see if the win sparks a run out of them.
When Utah has the ball on Wednesday, it will face a feisty TCU defense that knows how to pressure its opponents. The Utes haven't been great offensively, ranking 81st in efficiency, substantially worse than the Horned Frogs' defense, ranking 25th. The key to TCU's defense is that it does multiple things incredibly well. Specifically, it ranks 57th in defensive turnovers, 71st in steals, and 35th in free-throw attempt rate allowed, besting Utah in all the comparable offensive categories. Any way you look at it, the Horned Frogs have a clear edge at this end of the court.
When TCU has the ball, its offense has played noticeably better in recent games. The Horned Frogs rank 166th in offensive efficiency, a standing that's somewhat alarming for a team from a high-major conference, however, they rank eighth among all Big 12 teams against league competition. In the same period, Utah has the second-worst defensive efficiency rating in the conference during league play, ranking worst in turnover percentage and fourth-worst in defensive rebounding and free-throw attempt rate allowed.
Currently, these two teams are effectively next to each other on KenPom's overall efficiency standings, although based on how they match up against each other, I believe TCU will rise upward after the game is final. The Horned Frogs have already defeated multiple teams that are better than Wednesday's opponent, and based on the data, I believe they'll add another win to their list. I'm taking the home team in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: TCU -4.5
Purdue 
at Washington
The Boilermakers have ripped off five straight wins since losing consecutive games to Texas A&M and Auburn in mid-December. Purdue has looked dominant during this stretch, posting double-digit margins in each victory over Minnesota, Northwestern, Rutgers, and Nebraska. The latter was perhaps most impressive, a 104-68 win against a team with a defensive efficiency rating that ranks in the top 25 of the nation. Safe to say Purdue is firing on all cylinders.
In stark contrast, the Huskies are on a three-game skid, dropping games to Illinois, Michigan State, and Michigan. Washington impressively defeated Maryland at home before the losing streak, although it also lost to Seattle at home, not even a month ago, so this team still has a lot to work on, to say the least.
Led by superstar point guard Braden Smith, Purdue has hardly missed a beat offensively compared to last season. Smith is currently fifth on KenPom's Player of the Year Standings, so his impact cannot be overlooked. With Smith leading the charge, Purdue has the sixth-best offensive efficiency rating for the whole season, and it ranks first among Big Ten teams since league play started. Against conference foes, the Boilermakers are making over 62 percent of shots inside the arc and almost 40 percent beyond it, yielding the highest effective field goal percentage among all 18 Big Ten teams. In the same period, Washington has the fourth-worst defensive rating, and perhaps most alarming, it's allowing Big Ten opponents to make almost 60 percent of two-pointers, the worst mark in the conference. This is the last stat you want if you're tasked to defend against a Boilermaker squad that ranks second in the league in two-point field goal percentage.
Again, in the starkest contrast possible, Washington ranks 139th in offensive efficiency and last in the Big Ten since conference play started. The problem is that they're struggling in just about every important category. The Huskies are making under 47 percent of two-point attempts and under 29 percent on three-point attempts, yielding the worst effective field goal percentage in the Big Ten. If that's not bad enough, Washington has the fifth-worst offensive turnover and rebounding percentages in the conference, while Purdue ranks third and fifth in the same two categories on defense. The Boilermakers also rank third in defensive efficiency against league competition, so they appear well set up to get many stops on Wednesday evening.
The Huskies already proved they're capable of pulling off a big upset, as they demonstrated against Maryland, however, this outcome looks more like an exception as time passes. The Boilermakers are substantially better on offense and noticeably better on defense. It's not easy traveling across the country, but Purdue's leadership and experience should help. Either way, I'm laying the points with Purdue.
College Basketball Best Bet: Purdue -7.5
Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Kansas +6
- TCU -4.5
- Purdue -7.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
