This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Most of the high-major conferences are taking the night off on Thursday, but thankfully, we've still got some Big Ten teams clashing and an intriguing matchup out on the West Coast. Here are my predictions for three intriguing games on Thursday evening.
Maryland 
at Northwestern 
The Terrapins were humbled a couple of weeks ago during their road trip to the Pacific Northwest, where they got swept by Washington and Oregon. The Huskies caught Maryland off-guard in the first leg of the trip, and then the Terps gave the Ducks all they could handle in the second leg, holding a late lead before ultimately losing. The rough road trip raised some questions about the Terps, but they emphatically bounced back in their two-game homestand last week, throttling UCLA by 18 points before cruising past Minnesota. Earlier in the year, the Terrapins defeated Villanova and Ohio State for a pair of quality wins, giving them a path to the NCAA Tournament if they can sustain their current level of play.
The Wildcats, meanwhile, are riding a three-game skid, dropping games to Penn State, Purdue, and Michigan State. I normally wouldn't criticize a team too harshly for losing to any of these opponents, however, in Northwestern's case, this continues a concerning trend of losing against good teams. The Wildcats have had seven opportunities to earn a quality win, per KenPom, and they've lost all but one. Now, they have yet another opportunity on Thursday.
Northwestern has played well on defense for most of the year, ranking 33rd in efficiency, although it hasn't performed at the same level now that conference season has tipped off. During league play, the Wildcats rank 12th in defensive efficiency among all 18 Big Ten teams, noticeably worse than the opposing side on Wednesday. By comparison, Maryland has played well on offense throughout the season, ranking 26th in efficiency, and this has carried over to conference competition, ranking seventh in the Big Ten. This efficiency advantage extends to other key categories such as effective field goal percentage, turnovers, and free-throws, with the Terps' offense holding an edge over the Wildcats' defense in all of the comparable categories.
Northwestern hasn't been as sharp on offense, and it hasn't improved in recent games, either. The Wildcats rank 88th in offensive efficiency for the whole season and rank 13th in the Big Ten during conference play. This is the good news. The bad news is that it's gotten worse in some areas. Specifically, among Big Ten teams during league competition, Northwestern has the worst three-point field goal percentage (26.3), the worst effective field goal percentage, and the third-worst free-throw attempt rate. In the same period, Maryland ranks fifth in defensive efficiency, eighth in effective field goal percentage allowed, and seventh in free-throw attempt rate allowed. The Terrapins are also effective at picking pockets, posting the sixth-highest steal percentage in the Big Ten, a skill that will come in handy because the Wildcats have the sixth-worst offensive steal percentage.
All things considered, these two teams are on different levels. One has legitimate aspirations to go dancing in March, while the other would require a drastic turnaround for that to happen. I'm taking the team with the better offense and the better track record. I'm riding the Terrapins in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Maryland -1
Rutgers 
at Nebraska 
The Scarlett Knights have had a rocky season thus far, though they're showing faint signs of life. It all started when Rutgers landed a pair of five-star recruits in Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey. Each freshman has lived up to the hype, though the team itself hasn't performed up to the expectations established by head coach Steve Pikiell. Nonetheless, Rutgers has still had some highlights, namely wins over Notre Dame, Penn State, and UCLA.
The Cornhuskers, on the other hand, have won 12 of 16 games, including victories over Creighton, Indiana, and UCLA. Nebraska has dropped its past two games, on the road to Iowa and Purdue, so the team isn't quite as strong as it appeared before last week.
The most concerning issue for Nebraska is its recent defensive performances. Purdue torched Nebraska's defense for 104 points in its last game, and before that, Iowa shredded it for 97 points, with 21 coming in a single overtime period. The Huskers rank 21st in defensive efficiency, which sounds great, however, they have the third-worst defensive efficiency rating among all 18 Big Ten teams since the conference season started. They also have allowed league opponents to make 58 percent of two-point shots and 37 percent of three-point shots, yielding the second-worst effective field goal percentage allowed in the Big Ten. Rutgers has had issues scoring points, a problem that was exacerbated by the abscence of star point guard Dylan Harper in early January when he suffered from the flu. Many believe Harper has a chance to get picked near the top of the upcoming NBA draft, so his healthy return cannot be overlooked. He was seemingly back to 100 percent in Rutgers' recent win against UCLA, and the Scarlett Knights had the third-most efficient offensive performance against UCLA out of any of the Bruins' opponents this season. UCLA ranks 13th in defensive efficiency, so Rutgers' 75-point outburst in its victory shows its ceiling when its players are healthy and all on the same page.
The most curious part of the current Rutgers squad has been its lack of defense. Under coach Pikiell, the Scarlett Knights have established a reputation as an elite defensive team, finishing in the top six of the nation in efficiency in the past two years. The current group hasn't had the same success, though it's showing a spark since the conference season started. For the whole season, Rutgers ranks 88th in defensive efficiency, but it ranks 11th in the Big Ten during conference play. Admittedly, this still isn't a great standing, though it's much better than Nebraska's offense. In the same period, the Huskers have the second-worst offensive efficiency among Big Ten teams, and it's just as bad in two other important categories. The Huskers have the third-worst offensive turnover percentage and worst offensive rebounding percentage.
The Scarlett Knights are a hard team to pin down. They have a legitimate lottery pick playing point guard, joined by another lottery pick playing forward, and yet you would never know it by looking at their record. Even still, the team is playing better defense in recent games, and Harper is finally healthy. It's possible the game against UCLA was a fluke, but I'm betting the signs of improvement are real, and Rutgers will find a way to keep the game close. I'm taking the points with Scarlett Knights.
College Basketball Best Bet: Rutgers +8.5
Gonzaga 
at Oregon State 
The visiting team in this matchup doesn't need much introduction. Like most years, the Bulldogs are among the best offensive teams in the nation, with its defense not as great, though still respectable in this case, ranking 37th in defensive efficiency. The Bulldogs put on a show when they defeated Baylor and San Diego State earlier in the year, though they've lost their last four games against teams that rank in the top 50 of KenPom's overall efficiency chart.
The Beavers have won 13 of 18 games, including a win against UC Irvine, a deceptively good team. They don't have any other quality wins, though they lost to Oregon, North Texas, and Santa Clara by a combined seven points. Any one of these games would've counted as an 'A' quality win, per KenPom, so they don't appear too far off from earning a big victory. Oregon State has only lost one game at home, the three-point loss to Oregon, so it's proving to be a formidable team when playing at Gill Coliseum, the site of Wednesday's game.
Holding down Gonzaga's offense is a tall task, but Oregon State seems up to it. The Beavers are well above average in most areas on defense, including top 55 rankings in both effective field goal percentage allowed and rebounding percentage. Oregon State has the third-best defensive efficiency rating in the WCC during conference play, nearly matching Gonzaga's offensive standing, the second-best in the WCC. The Beavers also have the second-best defensive rebounding percentage in the same period, again matching the Bulldogs' offensive performance.
When playing in the other direction, we again see a similar theme. A tight matchup in most areas. Since the conference season started, Oregon State has had the third-best offensive efficiency rating, including the highest effective field goal percentage in the league. Gonzaga is close by defensively, ranking second in efficiency and effective field goal percentage allowed.
Overall, Gonzaga has a more impressive resume, obviously, but anything can happen on a Thursday evening in Corvallis. Oregon State has put up good numbers at both ends of the court since the conference season started, and even though it's not unbeaten in the WCC, it's not far off from what Gonzaga has done in the same period. All things considered, I'll take the points with the home team.
College Basketball Best Bet: Oregon State +9
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Maryland -1
- Rutgers +8.5
- Oregon State +9
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
