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Friday College Basketball Best Bets
We have a slimmer college hoops slate on Friday evening, as most teams have the night off. Here are my predictions for a pair of noteworthy games.
St. Bonaventure 
at Dayton 
The Bonnies are proving to be a competent group, sporting a 13-7 record to go with a ranking of 83rd on KenPom's overall efficiency chart. Despite the decent standing, St. Bonaventure has consistently struggled throughout the season against better competition. It played an incredibly easy non-conference schedule, ranked 301st in difficulty according to KenPom, and it failed both of its tests against great teams, losing to Auburn by 17 points before losing to Florida Atlantic by 10 points. Now, the Bonnies must travel and face their toughest opponent since playing the Owls in mid-December.
The Flyers, meanwhile, are having their best year since 2019-20 when they went 29-2 and 18-0 in conference before Covid abruptly ended the season. This year's squad is now 17-3 and 7-1 in the conference, and it just recently won 13 consecutive games before dropping its third game of the season this past Saturday at Richmond. Unlike its guest on Friday, Dayton played an extremely difficult non-conference schedule and passed most of its tests. It first lost at Northwestern by five points but then defeated LSU, St. John's, SMU, and Cincinnati before the Atlantic 10 season tipped off. Overall, Dayton is proving to be a dangerous team and should be a tough out, assuming it makes the cut on selection Sunday.
In comparing these teams against each other, Dayton is better in most categories. During the conference season, the Bonnies rank fifth in both offensive and defensive efficiency among Atalntic 10 teams, while Dayton ranks first in defense and second in offense. Digging deeper into the numbers, the Flyers have a notable advantage inside the paint. They tend to take most of their shots from outside the arc, but they're still good inside, making over 52 percent of two-pointers against league opponents, the third-highest percentage in the conference. In the same span, the Bonnies allow opponents to make 52 percent of shots inside the arc, the third-highest percentage allowed in the A10. When we factor in shot selection, the mismatch is just as wide. Dayton has the highest effective field goal percentage in the Atlantic 10 since the conference season tipped off, while St. Bonaventure ranks 11th on defense in the same category.
Looking at the bottom line, these two teams are not on the same level. Dayton has consistently played like it's the best team in the Atlantic 10, and it's even better at home. The Flyers are 10-0 at home while winning by 16 points per game. For all these reasons, I'm laying the points with Dayton.
Best Bet: Dayton -7.5
Butler 
at Creighton
Butler enters Friday on a three-game winning streak, although its streak nearly ended in its last game when it survived against Villanova in double overtime. Before this streak, Butler had lost five of six games, so it needs to play significantly better down the stretch if it wants to make the NCAA tournament. The Bulldogs pulled off an improbable victory at Marquette in early January. Still, their performances before and after that game suggest the win was an outlier, as the team has failed to play at the same high level against similarly competitive teams. And with Villanova in a tailspin, Butler's recent win suddenly carries a little less meaning.
Creighton has played like a well-oiled machine all season long, no surprise considering it returned a substantial portion of last year's squad that made it to the Elite Eight before losing to San Diego State by a single point. Now, this season, the Bluejays sit near the top of the Big East Standings while already collecting wins over teams like Nebraska, Alabama, St. John's, and Xavier, to name a few. They also rank in the top 20 on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, just like last year's team, giving us a reliable team with as much continuity as any team in the nation.
When stacking these teams on top of each other, Creighton has advantages on both ends of the court.
First, when Butler has the ball, it's going against the top-rated defense in the Big East since the conference season tipped off. In addition to ranking first in defensive efficiency, Creighton also ranks first in effective field goal percentage allowed, defensive rebounding percentage, two-point field goal percentage allowed, and defensive free-throw attempt rate. The latter poses an interesting wrinkle for the Bulldogs, a team that's scored a sizable portion of its points from the charity stripe. Against league opponents, Butler has had 20 percent of its total points come from free throws, the second-highest percentage in the Big East. This is fine in most cases, but Creighton has the lowest defensive free-throw attempt rate among all 362 D1 teams, so the Bulldogs are unlikely to see the same amount of foul shots compared to other games.
When Creighton has the ball, although it tends to take a high amount of shots from the outside, it's also incredibly proficient at inside scoring, an area that should be open for business on Friday. Butler's defense is lacking overall, ranking 82nd in efficiency, and it's even worse in the paint. The Bulldogs are allowing opponents to make 50 percent of shots inside the arc for the whole season, and this area has gotten worse during conference season, allowing Big East foes to make 52 percent of two-pointers. Butler doesn't do anything particularly well on defense, making this a suitable matchup for a Creighton team that has the ninth-highest effective field goal percentage in the nation.
Coming off a disastrous 14-18 season, Butler has done an admirable job at rebuilding and already matching its win total from last year, but this team still has a lot to work on. Creighton, meanwhile, isn't perfect, but it's consistently played well all year and hasn't shown any signs of slowing down. The Bulldogs have gotten torched by Big East teams over the past month, allowing at least 78 points to St. John's, UConn, Seton Hall, and Xavier, giving Creighton a decent chance at putting up a similarly high number. For all these reasons, I'm laying the points with Creighton.
Additionally, I also like our shot at seeing a high score. Both teams prefer playing quicker, with Creighton logging the fourth-quickest tempo on offense in the Big East and Butler coming in with the fifth-quickest offensive tempo. The Bulldogs are much better at scoring than guarding, so their style of play, combined with their preferred pace, should push up the number of points. I'm also taking the over in this one.
Best Bet: Creighton -9.5 and Over 147.5
College Basketball Best Bets for Friday, February 2
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Dayton -7.5
- Creighton -9.5
- Butler at Creighton - Over 147.5
