Wednesday's college hoops slate inevitably features several teams fighting for a ticket to the Big Dance, as well as a couple of teams looking to improve their seeding. Here are my predictions for three select games on Wednesday evening.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Creighton 
at Butler 
These two teams are currently next to each other on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, suggesting they're at a similar level. That may be true, but a closer look reveals one team has an upper hand at both ends of the court.
First, Butler has been the Big East's worst defensive team during the conference season. The Bulldogs' defense is ranked last in the league in efficiency, two-point field goal percentage allowed (59 percent), and effective field goal percentage allowed. Its best trait is that it doesn't foul opponents, the second-best mark in the Big East, although this doesn't do them much good in this matchup, as Creighton rarely gets to the charity stripe (345th).
The Bluejays don't take many trips to the foul line because they're usually just as well off with jump shots. Against Big East opponents, Creighton has made 54 percent of two-point attempts (third), and 36 percent of three-point attempts (fourth), yielding the third-best effective field goal percentage in the league.
In the other direction, one of Creighton's signature defensive traits is that they seldom send opponents to the charity stripe. This is no accident, either. Including this season, the Bluejays' defense has ranked among the top five teams nationally in free-throw attempt rate allowed in five consecutive seasons. This is of utmost importance in this matchup because Butler's offense relies heavily on free throws for scoring. The Bulldogs rank 19th nationally in free-throw attempt rate, including the highest mark in the Big East during league play. Butler has scored a league-high 25 percent of its total points from free throws, so this is not what the Bulldogs like to see on their scouting report. For good measure, it's worth noting that Creighton's defense is solid in other areas, ranking among the top five in the Big East in two-point field goal percentage allowed (52 percent) and defensive rebounding.
Creighton won the first game between these teams in late December, 89-85. Given each team's styles, strengths, and weaknesses, I expect a similar outcome on Wednesday. I'm taking the Bluejays.
College Basketball Best Bet: Creighton +2.5
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Miami 
at SMU 
The weakest link in this matchup belongs to SMU's defense, which ranks 110th in adjusted efficiency.
This is a liability in any matchup, especially this one, as Miami's offense ranks 44th in adjusted efficiency. The Hurricanes are especially formidable in the paint, where they're collecting offensive boards at the 12th-highest rate nationally, and they rank in the top 30 in two-point field goal percentage (58 percent) and effective field goal percentage. The Mustangs' defense generally performs below average in the paint, ranking 241st in defensive rebounding and 184th in two-point field goal percentage allowed (52 percent).
We have a more even battle at the other end of the court, where SMU's 16th-ranked offense takes on Miami's 35th-ranked defense (in adjusted efficiency). The Hurricanes sometimes give up easy shots, but they're solid in most other defensive areas. During the ACC conference season, Miami's defense leads the league in rebounding percentage and ranks in the top four in turnover percentage and free-throw attempt rate allowed. The Mustangs are accustomed to seeing extra possessions from offensive boards (50th), so the Canes' ability to limit second-chance points could be key.
The Mustangs often shoot the ball well, so perhaps they'll find a way to win at home, but Miami appears to have all the tools to take advantage of SMU's soft defense. I'm going with the Hurricanes.
College Basketball Best Bet: Miami +1.5
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Ohio State 
at Penn State 
Ohio State recently bounced back in a big way, with an 82-74 victory over Purdue. Its offense was in top form, and now it gets to tee off against the Big Ten's worst defense.
Penn State's defense consistently gets torched, ranking last in the league during the conference season in both efficiency and effective field goal percentage allowed, with league-worst marks on two-pointers (61 percent) and three-pointers (41 percent).
The Buckeyes, meanwhile, are at their best with the ball in their hands. They rank among the top 40 teams in adjusted efficiency, effective field goal percentage, two-point field goal percentage (58 percent), and free throw percentage (77 percent). It's worth noting they've also made 35 percent of their 3-pointers and rank above average in turnovers, rebounding, and free-throw attempts, giving them a strong, all-around offensive game.
The Nittany Lions have performed slightly better on the other end of the court (it's hard to imagine being worse), though they're still far below average by Big Ten standards. During conference play, the Nittany Lions' offense ranks among the six worst in the Big Ten in efficiency, effective field goal percentage, turnovers, and rebounding. They also can't reliably score from the perimeter, making just 30 percent against conference opponents, the league's second-worst mark.
On a related note, Wednesday presents a small opportunity to 'sell-high' on Penn State, as it's coming off its best shooting performance of the season in a 71-69 win against Iowa. Despite shooting poorly for most of the season, the Nittany Lions managed to make 9-of-15 three-point attempts. It was only Penn State's second game of the season in which it made at least 50 percent of shots from beyond the arc, the other being a 10-of-20 performance on November 15 against La Salle. It was also just their fourth Big Ten game with at least nine made three-pointers, and it was their first in over a month.
Given Penn State's defensive struggles and the likelihood that its shooting numbers more closely resemble what we've seen throughout the season, I like our odds of seeing Ohio State's dynamic offense build a lead and pull away in the second half. I'm laying the points.
College Basketball Best Bet: Ohio State -7.5
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Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Creighton +2.5
- Miami +1.5
- Ohio State -7.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
