In addition to a pair of First Four games, we also have Part II of the NIT's opening round. Here are my predictions for a trio of NIT games on Wednesday evening.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Navy 
at Wake Forest
The Midshipmen find themselves in this matchup after they suffered a very unfortunate one-point loss to Boston University, 73-72, in the Patriot League tournament.
Navy may have missed the bus to the Big Dance, but make no mistake, it was easily the best team in the Patriot League for the whole season. The Midshipmen will enter the NIT with a 26-7 (17-1) record, sitting at 142nd on KenPom's overall efficiency chart. For context, no other team in the Patriot League finished with fewer than 15 losses and six conference losses, and no other team is higher than 230th on KenPom's overall chart.
Navy's offense ranks 203rd in adjusted efficiency, which isn't great, though it's still highly proficient in a few key areas. Namely, during the conference season, it led the Patriot League in rebounding percentage and free-throw attempt rate, and it ranked second in efficiency, two-point shooting (56 percent), three-point shooting (38 percent), and effective field goal percentage.
Wake Forest's defense, meanwhile, has been highly vulnerable in the paint. The Demon Deacons rank 299th in rebounding percentage and are allowing opponents to make 54 percent of shots inside the arc (283rd).
At the other end of the court, the Midshipmen's defense ranks 103rd in adjusted efficiency and excels in multiple areas. It ranks among the top 10 teams nationally in both free-throw attempt rate allowed and three-point field goal percentage allowed, and, during conference play, it led the Patriot League in efficiency, effective field goal percentage allowed, and two-point field goal percentage allowed (50 percent).
It's always tricky trying to measure how the best team from a lower conference will fare against an average team from a high one. Well, this won't be the first time that Navy plays on the road against an ACC team from North Carolina. Navy played at Chapel Hill back in November and lost 73-61, a final score that would give them the cover on Wednesday.
Given a large spread, I gotta take the points in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: Navy +12.5
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George Washington 
at Utah Valley 
Despite playing on the road, George Washington has a few things going in its favor on Wednesday.
First, the Revolutionaries have a better offensive attack, punctuated by outstanding numbers in the paint. They boast the 24th-highest offensive rebounding percentage while making 57 percent of two-point attempts (41st), a powerful and reliable combination. Even still, they are also highly productive from the perimeter, making 35 percent of three-point attempts (116th) while attempting them at the 36th-highest frequency. Combined with its interior scoring, GW ranks 52nd in effective field goal percentage.
One weakness appears to be turnovers (266th), although the Revolutionaries rank 130th in non-steal turnover percentage, suggesting most turnovers result from opponents' skilled defensive play rather than unforced errors.
Speaking of turnovers, while Utah Valley's offense is capable of scoring a large amount of points, ranking 107th in adjusted efficiency, it also has a flaw that may be fatal in this matchup. The Wolverines are among the sloppiest teams in all of D-1, ranking among the 20 worst teams in turnover percentage, including ranking 272nd in non-steal turnovers. This plays directly into George Washington's hand, as the Revolutionaries rank 110th in defensive turnover percentage.
Another flaw worth pointing out is Utah Valley's struggles from the charity stripe, or poverty stripe, as it were. The Wolverines have made just 68 percent of free throws, a mark that ranks among the 40 worst teams.
Overall, George Washington is better at rebounding and three-point shooting, and it tends to take better care of the ball. For these reasons, I'm going with the Revolutionaries.
College Basketball Best Bet: George Washington +2.5
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Dayton 
at Bradley
Dayton's offensive attack isn't the best, ranking 146th in adjusted efficiency, but this matchup favors its style of play.
That is, the Flyers boast the highest free-throw attempt rate among all D-1 teams, and they're making 75 percent of attempts (80th), which means that free throws account for almost 26 percent of Dayton's total points, the nation's fifth-highest mark. This strength often serves the Flyers well, except when they face teams that are proficient at defending without fouling. Dayton only suffered 11 losses all year, and five of them came against teams that rank among the top 100 in free-throw rate allowed.
Bradley, for its part, fouls opponents more often than most teams, ranking 258th in free-throw attempt rate allowed, including the worst mark in the Atlantic 10 during league play.
The matchup for Dayton's offense is pivotal because it usually plays at a high level defensively. The Flyers' defense ranks 32nd in adjusted efficiency, 10th in turnover percentage, and 70th in two-point shooting allowed, holding opponents to 49 percent inside the arc.
The Braves are limited offensively in a few areas, so they seem less likely to crack Dayton's defense. Specifically, Bradly's offense has lackluster numbers in the paint, ranking 286th in rebounding and 278th in two-point shooting, making just 49 percent.
Considering how Dayton matches up in this game, I like its odds of advancing. I'm taking flight with the Flyers on Wednesday.
College Basketball Best Bet: Dayton -1.5
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Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Navy +12.5
- George Washington +2.5
- Dayton -1.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
