Today's theme is West Coast After Dark. Coincidentally, I have my sights set on a trio of games tipping off late in the evening out on the West Coast. Here are my selections for Wednesday.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Wisconsin 
at Oregon 
The Ducks are coming off just their third conference win of the season, a 71-70 victory at USC. A win is a win, but this one was nearly as improbable as they get. Oregon trailed by six with a minute remaining, giving the Ducks a 97 percent chance of losing (per KenPom), before going on a 7-0 run to end the game.
Aside from this ending, Oregon hasn't had much to cheer about this season, and it's easy to see why. Between injuries and a lack of depth, the Ducks struggle to score and don't get many stops. Outside of star center Nate Bittle, Oregon doesn't often have many, if any, matchup advantages against conference opponents.
This is where the Badgers enter the picture. On paper, Wisconsin should have the length and personnel in the front court to limit Bittle's production. For good measure, it's worth noting that the Badgers rank 13th nationally in average height, per KenPom, so size will not be an issue. And even with Bittle on the court for 20 of Oregon's games this season, the Ducks have had a lackluster offense. During the Big Ten conference season, Oregon's offense ranks last in the league in efficiency and ranks among the three worst teams in effective field goal percentage and turnover percentage.
In contrast, Wisconsin's high-powered offense was instrumental in signature victories against Michigan (on the road), Illinois (on the road), and Michigan State. The Badgers' offense ranks among the top 25 teams in adjusted efficiency, turnovers, and free-throw percentage, giving them a high chance of scoring points on any given possession. Wisconsin typically barrages opponents from the perimeter, with two-pointers accounting for just 41 percent of its total points, among the lowest nationally at 354th. This is particularly noteworthy, as Oregon's best defensive player is center Nate Bittle, so his presence in the paint means less against Wisconsin than it might against a team that doesn't consistently attack from the perimeter.
For these reasons, I'm laying the points with the Badgers.
College Basketball Best Bet: Wisconsin -5
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Santa Clara 
at Saint Mary's
Saint Mary's has established itself as a defensive powerhouse under head coach Randy Bennett, and this year is no different, ranking 24th in adjusted efficiency and second in the WCC during league play.
That said, the Gaels will meet their match on Wednesday when the Broncos come into town. Santa Clara's offense ranks 27th in adjusted efficiency and boasts the league's highest rating during the conference season. Additionally, the Broncos' offense leads the league in effective field goal percentage and two-point field goal percentage (60 percent) while also placing among the top four WCC teams in turnovers, offensive rebounding percentage, and three-point make percentage, giving them a well-rounded offensive attack.
Santa Clara isn't as sharp at the other end of the court, with its defense ranking 57th in adjusted efficiency, but neither is Saint Mary's, with its offense ranking 53rd. The Broncos are especially opportunistic at taking the ball away, recording the 17th-best defensive turnover percentage, including the best mark during the WCC conference season.
This played out exactly as we might expect in the first round between these two teams. The Gaels committed their fourth-most turnovers of the conference season en route to a 62-54 loss at Santa Clara.
The rematch will take place approximately 50 miles away in Moraga, but I'm not sure a change in venue will diminish the likelihood of seeing a close game.
All things considered, I'm taking the points in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Santa Clara +5.5
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Washington State 
at Loyola Marymount 
The best asset in this matchup is Washington State's offense. It ranks 80th in adjusted efficiency and, during league play, ranks among the top four WCC teams in efficiency, effective field goal percentage, and two-point and three-point field goal percentages. It also has the fifth-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the league, which is an important note because Loyola Marymount's defense ranks fourth-worst in rebounding.
The Lions played an extremely easy non-conference slate schedule, 307th in difficulty per KenPom, so the conference season has naturally exposed many cracks. During league play, LMU's defense ranks among the bottom five WCC teams in efficiency, turnovers, and rebounding -- far from the ideal recipe for success, to say the least.
The Cougars have played at a sub-par level defensively, ranking 232nd in adjusted efficiency, but that might be okay in this matchup because LMU's offense has hardly played much better, ranking 213th. The Lions are fine at shooting the ball, ranking 137th in effective field goal percentage, though they're poor in several other important areas. They rank outside the top 250 teams in turnover percentage, rebounding, and free-throw attempts -- again, not an ideal recipe for winning a basketball game.
Washington State already defeated LMU once this season, a 78-76 victory in Pullman, and I'm betting we'll see a similar outcome on Wednesday. I'm going with the Cougars.
College Basketball Best Bet: Washington State -1.5
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Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Wisconsin -5
- Santa Clara +5.5
- Washington State -1.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
