On today's slate, I have my sights set on what should be an exhilarating game in Athens, as well as a pair of Big 12 matchups. Here are my selections for Tuesday evening.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Alabama 
at Georgia 
Most college hoops fans are well aware of Alabama's high-powered offensive attack, currently ranked third nationally in adjusted efficiency, and of how it barrages opponents with three-pointers; however, there's an overlooked ingredient that gives them a boost.
I alluded to this in my preview for the Tide's recent game against Tennessee, but it's worth noting again, especially in this matchup. That is, KenPom's data suggest that Alabama's offensive efficiency is highly correlated with its offensive rebounding, to an extreme extent, so much so that offensive rebounding correlates more strongly with its efficiency than with its effective field goal percentage. Second-chance opportunities obviously benefit every team, but it's even more true for Alabama.
Well, if you need offensive rebounds, it's hard to ask for a better opponent. Georgia ranks among the 20 worst teams nationally in defensive rebounding percentage, a mark that naturally includes the worst numbers during the SEC conference season. Alabama ranks 138th in offensive rebounding and has made 36 percent of its three-point attempts while attempting them at the nation's highest frequency, so it's easy to see why it gets an efficiency boost from extra possessions.
When playing in the other direction, Georgia's offense appears to have an efficiency advantage over Alabama's defense, though the picture changes when we focus on conference-only data. During the SEC conference season, Alabama's defense has actually performed a tick better than Georgia's offense, with the former ranking sixth in the league in efficiency and the latter ranking seventh. The Tide doesn't cause many turnovers, but they are second-best in the league in effective field goal percentage allowed, free-throw attempt rate allowed, and two-point field goal percentage allowed (49 percent).
Georgia has proven its capable of beating a good team at home, although I can't overlook Alabama's offensive advantage. I'm taking the Tide in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Alabama -1.5
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West Virginia 
at Kansas State 
Both teams have struggled to score, and Kansas State appears to have the edge in adjusted efficiency; however, other data paints a different picture.
First, the Wildcats have the worst offensive rating in the Big 12 since the conference season started. They're also the worst in the league in offensive rebounding and free-throw attempt rate, and they're third-worst in effective field goal percentage and turnovers. This bodes well for the Mountaineers' defense, which has been formidable in most facets throughout the season. West Virginia's defense ranks 24th in adjusted efficiency nationally and ranks among the top 70 teams in effective field goal percentage allowed, rebounding percentage, and free-throw attempt rate allowed. The Mountaineers are especially outstanding near the rim, holding opponents to 45 percent, the 12th-best among all D-1 teams.
In comparing the two offenses, the other key difference is that West Virginia usually has success in the paint, making 53 percent of two-point attempts against Big 12 opponents, the fifth-best in the league. In contrast, Kansas State's defense often struggles near the basket. The Wildcats rank last in defensive rebounding during the Big 12 conference season, and they're allowing league opponents to make 55 percent of shots inside the arc, the third-worst.
The better team doesn't always win, but, based on how Kansas State's season has gone off the rails, I'm betting West Virginia's superior frontcourt will lead it to victory.
College Basketball Best Bet: West Virginia -1.5
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BYU 
at Cincinnati
Don't look now, but Cincinnati is finally clicking. The Bearcats' season looked bleak at the start of February, sitting at 11-12 (3-7), but the team has since caught fire, winning five of six games, including an impressive 84-68 statement win at Kansas.
The key to Cincinnati's resurgence is that it finally figured out how to score points. The Bearcats have had their three most efficient games of the season in the past month, and their performance against Kansas was their fifth-most efficient. The improved offense gets another favorable test on Tuesday, as BYU's defense has struggled during the conference season, ranking among the five worst teams in the Big 12 in efficiency, effective field goal percentage allowed, and turnover percentage.
Cincinnati will be a tough out in the conference tournament if it can maintain its offensive success, as it's been a defensive powerhouse all season. The Bearcats' defense ranks 13th nationally in adjusted efficiency rating, and they are among the top five Big 12 teams during league play in efficiency, effective field goal percentage allowed, turnover percentage, and free-throw attempt rate allowed. BYU's offense has been just as good during most of the season, although losing Richie Saunders has proven tough to overcome. The Cougars have lost three of four games without Saunders.
Overall, these two teams are trending in different directions. My money's on the home team in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Cincinnati -1.5
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Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Alabama -1.5
- West Virginia -1.5
- Cincinnati -1.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
