Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
Postseason action resumes on Tuesday, as the opening round of the NIT tips off. Here are my predictions for a trio of NIT games.
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Liberty 
at George Mason 
The Flames can shoot the ball as well as any team in the country. Liberty made 61 percent of its shots inside the arc (fifth-highest nationally) and made 39 percent beyond it (sixth-highest nationally), yielding the nation's second-highest effective field goal percentage. The Flames also rarely turn the ball over, ranking 18th, so they are a tough team to stop when they're locked in. It's important to keep in mind that the Conference USA isn't as difficult as the high-majors, obviously, but even so, Liberty's offense ranks 58th in adjusted efficiency.
In contrast, Liberty's defense is a noticeable liability, ranking 268th in adjusted efficiency, although it does a couple of things well that might be difference-makers in this matchup. Specifically, Liberty seldom sends opponents to the charity stripe, ranking 15th in free-throw attempt rate. This is particularly noteworthy when playing George Mason, as the Patriots score more points from the foul line than most teams. Free throws account for 22 percent of the Patriots' total points, the 79th-highest mark in D-1.
Liberty is also somewhat sturdy in the paint, holding opponents to 51 percent on two-point attempts (117th). This is also key because George Mason is less likely to score from the perimeter, having made just 33 percent from beyond the arc and three-pointers accounting for just 26 percent of its total points (306th).
Given Liberty's sharp-shooting offense and how its defense matches up against George Mason, I like the Flames' odds at keeping the game close. I'm taking the points.
College Basketball Best Bet: Liberty +5.5
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Wyoming 
at Wichita State 
The Shockers are above-average offensively, ranking 111th in adjusted efficiency, and they boast the fifth-highest offensive rebounding percentage among all D-1 teams. This is an impressive stat, although their poor shooting numbers often limit the benefit of an extra possession. Wichita State is making just 49 percent of two-point attempts (283rd) and 34 percent of three-point attempts (198th), combining for an effective field goal percentage that ranks 268th.
The other issue facing the home team is that it's terrible at making foul shots. Wichita State has made just 69 percent of its free-throw attempts (305th), which is important for Wyoming because it's among the worst teams at fouling opponents, allowing the fifth-worst free-throw attempt rate nationally.
Wyoming often performs much better with the ball in its hands. The Cowboys' offense ranks 83rd in adjusted efficiency and has above-average marks in several key areas, including offensive rebounding (56th), two-point field goal percentage (86th), and free-throw percentage (82nd).
The challenge for Wyoming is that Wichita State's defense is similarly strong, if not better, ranking 64th in adjusted efficiency. The Shockers are particularly strong at forcing difficult shots, holding opponents to under 48 percent on two-point shooting and under 31 percent on three-point shooting, combining for the 27th-lowest effective field goal percentage allowed.
Considering how Wyoming's defense matches up against the home team and Wichita State's defensive abilities, I'm betting we'll have a low-scoring game on our hands. I'm taking the Under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 148.5
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Stephen F. Austin 
at Tulsa 
Tulsa is one of the best shooting teams in all of D-1, although it faces a formidable and interesting challenge on Tuesday.
The Golden Hurricanes' offensive game plan involves frequently hoisting up three-pointers and converting them with great success (39 percent). In total, three-pointers accounted for 38 percent of Tulsa's total points, the 30th-highest mark nationally. It's hard to stop a team when it catches fire from the perimeter, although Stephen F. Austin appears to have the blueprint for this exact scenario.
The Lumberjacks defense has played at a respectable level overall, ranking 81st in adjusted efficiency, although they're among the best at preventing perimeter scoring. Opponents have made just 30 percent of three-pointers against Stephen F. Austin (the 20th-lowest mark), but perhaps the more impressive aspect of the Lumberjacks' defense is that they are outstanding at disrupting passing and forcing opponents off the perimeter. SFA's defense ranks 48th in three-point attempt rate allowed and 59th in assist rate allowed. Opponents have scored just 27 percent of their total points off three-pointers against SFA (317th).
Outside of elite perimeter defense, the Lumberjacks are also great in other areas. During the conference season, they led the Soutland conference defensive rebounding and free-throw attempt rate.
Offensively, Stephen F. Austin is solid in a couple of areas but incredibly weak in a couple of others. Specifically, the Lumberjacks rank among the top 75 teams in turnovers, rebounding, and three-point shooting (36 percent). Unfortunately, they rank outside the top 240 teams in free-throw attempts, two-point shooting (50 percent), and free-throw make percentage (69 percent).
I'm tempted to take the points with Stephen F. Austin because of its defensive strategy and strengths, but its offense relies substantially on three-point shooting, which makes me pause.
Instead, I'm taking the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 154.5
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Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Liberty +5.5
- Wyoming at Wichita State - Under 148.5
- Stephen F. Austin at Tulsa - Under 154.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
