High-level conference action resumes on Tuesday, with many high-profile teams once again taking the court. Here are my predictions for a trio of games on Tuesday evening.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Miami 
at Notre Dame
This pick is all about offense, or a lack thereof in the case of one team.
The Hurricanes are proving to have a formidable offensive attack. They rank in the top-50 nationally in adjusted efficiency and in the top-20 in effective field goal percentage, offensive rebounding, and two-point field goal percentage, having made 60 percent of shots inside the arc. Additionally, they have also made 35 percent from three-point range and rank in the top-100 in turnovers and free-throw attempt rate. They are playing well across nearly every area, and this level of play has continued into the conference season. During league play, Miami leads the ACC in offensive rebounding percentage and free-throw attempt rate, while also ranking second in efficiency and two-point field goal percentage.
The Fighting Irish, meanwhile, have struggled to score since losing Markus Burton, their best player, in early December. And Burton wasn't just any star player. He was named to the Preseason First Team All-ACC Team, collecting the most votes for any player, tied with Duke forward Cameron Boozer. Notre Dame's postseason prospects were already questionable even before Burton's injury, and now it's hard to imagine them making a run. Notre Dame has now lost three of its last four games, including a home loss to Purdue Fort Wayne and an unlikely win at Stanford in which the final score was 47-40, as the Cardinal made 4-of-30 three-point attempts (.133). If it wasn't for Stanford's worst shooting night of the season, Notre Dame would be riding a four-game losing streak.
In any event, Notre Dame's offense ranks outside the top-90 teams in adjusted efficiency, effective field goal percentage, and rebounding. For comparison, Miami's defense ranks noticeably higher across all three areas, placing in the top-80 teams. Miami is also great at taking the ball away, recording a turnover percentage that ranks 54th, which is a skill that will likely come in handy because Notre Dame ranks outside the top-200 teams in offensive turnover percentage.
If Notre Dame pulls off a victory, it will most likely happen by getting hot from the perimeter, where it has made 37 percent of three-point attempts. Still, Miami has many ways to score and a sturdy defense. I'm taking the Hurricanes in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: Miami -3.5
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Connecticut 
at Seton Hall 
Looking at the components of this matchup, one unit does not belong: Seton Hall's offense.
The Pirates' offense is clearly the weakest part of today's matchup, as Seton Hall ranks outside the top-125 in adjusted efficiency and has struggled to hit shot attempts. The Pirates have made under 49 percent of shots inside the arc and 33 percent of shots beyond it, resulting in an effective field goal percentage that ranks 265th. Their saving grace has been above-average marks in turnovers and rebounding, but those strengths carry less weight in this matchup, as UConn's defense is superior in both categories.
Speaking of the Huskies' defense, they've played at an elite level all season. They boast the fifth-best adjusted efficiency rating and fifth-best effective field goal percentage allowed among all D-1 teams, giving Seton Hall by far its toughest defensive challenge of the season.
The Pirates, meanwhile, have also played elite defense, ranking in the top-10 nationally in adjusted efficiency, turnovers, and two-point field goal percentage allowed. This impressive level of play has allowed them to get past most opponents, but it's hard to bank on it having the same success when facing an offensively skilled team like UConn. Seton Hall has played five opponents with a top-60 offensive efficiency rating, and it lost two of them, which are its only losses of the season.
The Huskies clearly fit the profile of a highly proficient offensive team, a signature trait under head coach Dan Hurley. If the season ended today, UConn would have its fifth consecutive season with an offensive rating in the top-25.
Given the strengths and weaknesses of each team, I like our odds of seeing UConn pull away in the second half. I'm laying the points in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: UConn -5.5
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Florida 
at Oklahoma 
The Sooners are off to a terrible start in conference play. They've lost two of three games, and their offense has gotten significantly exposed in the process. Oklahoma played one of the easiest non-conference schedules in the country, ranking 315th in difficulty per KenPom, making it easy to see how its pre-new-year numbers may have been inflated.
Through three conference games, among SEC teams, the Sooners' offense has the worst effective field goal percentage and the third-worst efficiency rating and turnover percentage. Now, Oklahoma faces a Florida team that boasts the SEC's top-ranked defense in efficiency and rebounding, and it's also top-four in the league in effective field goal percentage allowed and turnover percentage.
The Gators, meanwhile, have played one of the most difficult non-conference schedules, ranking 40th in difficulty. When you factor in their three conference games, their schedule ranks as the nation's sixth most difficult, per KenPom. Despite tougher competition, Florida's offense has performed at a high level, thanks to its elite frontcourt. It ranks 26th in adjusted efficiency and boasts the nation's highest offensive rebounding percentage. The Gators have also made 58 percent of their two-point attempts (34th), giving them a strong chance to score in the paint on any given possession or second-chance opportunity. This is all the more likely given Oklahoma's relatively weak defensive numbers. The Sooners rank outside the top-110 teams in efficiency and rebounding, and they also don't often force turnovers, ranking outside the top-250 in turnovers.
One other related note: Florida has a noticeable size advantage. The Gators are among the largest teams in the nation, ranking 12th in average height per KenPom, while the Sooners are below average for D-1 standards, ranking 198th.
Based on each team's body of work so far, and how they match up against each other, I gotta go with the Gators on Tuesday.
College Basketball Best Bet: Florida -5.5
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Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Miami -3.5
- UConn -5.5
- Florida -5.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
