It's finally here. The Big Dance. On Thursday, we have the Round of 64 tipping off, a most festive time of the year. March is Madness, as we all know, but here are my predictions for a trio of games on Thursday's slate.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Thursday
For up-to-the-minute updates on injuries, player performance and the transfer portal, head RotoWire's latest college basketball news page or follow @RotoWireCBB on X.
McNeese State 
at Vanderbilt 
In comparing these teams, each defense has eerily similar traits. Both are solid on paper, ranking among the top 50 teams in adjusted defensive efficiency, and both sport the same critical flaws.
Specifically, each team struggles to box out while also having severe foul issues. Vanderbilt ranks 231st in defensive rebounding percentage, with McNeese coming in at 339th, and both teams rank among the bottom 60 teams in free-throw attempt rate allowed.
This is the ideal scouting report for each offense. Both teams are active on the glass, frequently draw contact, and usually convert from the charity stripe. McNeese, for its part, ranks among the top 100 teams in both offensive rebounding percentage and free-throw attempt rate, while making 74 percent (129th) from the foul line. Vanderbilt's offense similarly ranks 159th in rebounding, 101st in free-throw attempt rate, and it made 79 percent of foul shots (fourth nationally).
Another key note for this matchup involves turnovers. McNeese boasts the nation's highest defensive turnover and steal percentages, which is a nice ace card to have, although Vanderbilt ranks 11th and ninth in offensive turnover and steal percentages, respectively, seemingly blunting the Cowboys' greatest skill.
If forced to take a side, I'd take the points with McNeese thanks to its aforementioned rebounding and free-throw advantages. That said, I like our odds a bit more on seeing the total go over. The number to beat isn't absurdly high, and it seems highly probable that we'll see a large amount of trips to the charity stripe. It's also worth noting that both teams push the pace whenever they can, both ranking among the top 70 teams in average offensive possession length.
For these reasons, I'm taking the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 150.5
There are so many ways to get in on the CBB betting action ahead of March Madness. Claim over a thousand dollars in bonuses by signing up at the best sports betting sites using the best sportsbook promos.
Texas A&M 
vs. Saint Mary's
When looking at these teams side by side, one particular advantage jumps off the screen.
The Gaels are among the best rebounding teams in the nation, ranking fourth defensively and 15th offensively, and it's the latter they may ultimately decide the game.
The Aggies, in contrast, are terrible on the defensive glass, ranking 284th in rebounding percentage, and they are not great at defending the rim, either, allowing opponents to make 53 percent of two-point attempts (240th). Safe to say Saint Mary's should see a fair amount of put-back opportunities on Thursday.
Additionally, the Gaels boast the highest free-throw percentage among all D-1 teams at 81 percent, and they have made 39 percent of three-point attempts (13th). If it's a close game, Saint Mary's has all the tools to come up big in a clutch moment.
The Aggies, meanwhile, have above-average marks in the usual key areas, turnovers, rebounding, and free throw attempts, although their offensive strategy appears somewhat one-dimensional. They chuck up three-pointers at a high frequency, so much so that two-pointers only account for 43 percent of their total points, one of the lowest marks nationally (334th). This isn't necessarily an issue, assuming the shots fall, but Saint Mary's defense appears to do a good job of disrupting action on the perimeter, holding opponents to 31 percent on three-point shooting (41st) while also holding opponents' three-point attempt rate to a mark that ranks 94th.
For context, the Aggies were 16-2 in games where they made at least 33 percent from beyond the arc, but they were 5-9 in games below that mark.
It's certainly possible that Texas A&M will make a significant portion of its shots on Thursday en route to a win, but I believe Saint Mary's matchup advantages are more likely to determine the outcome. I'm going with the Gaels.
College Basketball Best Bet: Saint Mary's -3.5
Check out Caesars Sportsbook this season and use the Caesars Sportsbook promo code for one of the top college basketball betting promos out there.
Idaho 
vs. Houston
Idaho's defense doesn't stand out at first glance, ranking 136th in adjusted efficiency, though it has a couple of essential strengths worth noting.
First, the Vandals are among the best at boxing out, recording the fifth-highest defensive rebounding percentage among all D-1 teams. One might be quick to note that the Big Sky isn't the toughest league in the country, which may be true, although Idaho's strength of schedule still ranks 195th overall, including a non-conference slate that ranked 161st, so there's certainly some weight to its rebounding numbers. This is a key skill in any matchup, especially in this one, as Houston ranks 30th in offensive rebounding percentage.
Second, the Vandals also do a good job defending in the paint. They held opponents to 49 percent on two-point attempts (74th), including the second-best mark in the Big Sky during league play.
Idaho's worst defensive flaw is that it tends to foul opponents, 290th in free-throw attempt rate allowed, although Houston rarely gets to the charity stripe, sitting among the bottom 15 teams in free-throw attempt rate.
At the other end of the court, Houston's defense needs little introduction. The Cougars' signature trait of elite lockdown defense still holds true, ranking fifth nationally in adjusted efficiency. Idaho tends to hoist up three-pointers at a high clip (34th in attempt rate), so it's possible it gets hot from the perimeter and puts up a surprising point total, but I don't believe Houston's defense will allow that to happen.
Given Idaho's defensive strengths, I'm betting the Vandals' defense will do enough to hold down the point total. At the same time, I'm not about to bet against Houston's defense. I'm taking the under in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 136.5
Check out BetMGM Sportsbook to bet on National Championship Odds, and use this BetMGM Bonus Code for a great welcome offer.
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- McNeese vs. Vanderbilt - Over 150.5
- Saint Mary's -3.5
- Idaho vs. Houston - Under 136.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
