Most of the high-major conference teams have the night off on Thursday, so that means the mid-majors get the spotlight for a night. Here are my predictions for three games on Thursday's slate.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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South Florida 
at UAB 
The Bulls lost to the Blazers in double overtime when they played in Florida at the start of the month, but most of the numbers suggest South Florida still has the upper hand.
When the Bulls hosted the first game between these two teams, they held an 11-point lead with five minutes remaining, giving them a 97 percent chance of winning, per KenPom. The Blazers pulled off the extremely unlikely comeback, but they still appear to be at a disadvantage in this matchup for two key reasons.
First, South Florida's offense has played at a consistently higher level than UAB's defense. The Bulls rank among the top 80 teams in adjusted offensive efficiency and turnover percentage, while the Blazers' defense ranks outside the top 130 teams in both categories. The Bulls' offense is also performing well against league competition, while the same cannot be said for the Blazers' defense. During the conference season, South Florida's offense ranks among the top four in the AAC in efficiency, turnovers, free-throw attempt rate, and three-point field goal percentage. At the same time, UAB ranks ninth or lower in defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage allowed. It's been most vulnerable in the paint, where it's allowed AAC opponents to make over 52 percent of two-point attempts, the second-worst mark in the league.
Second, UAB's offense is one-dimensional, and it's facing a South Florida defense that is usually effective against that dimension. Specifically, the Blazers rarely score from the perimeter and only attack inside. UAB has scored under 20 percent of its total points from beyond the arc, which is the fifth-lowest mark among all D-1 teams. They rarely attempt three-pointers, and it's easy to see why -- they've only made 29 percent of them. It's only natural, then, that UAB has scored 59 percent of its total points from inside the arc, the sixth-highest percentage nationally. This might be fine in some matchups, but South Florida is usually stout in the paint. The Bulls are holding opponents to under 48 percent on two-point attempts (48th), and they've improved this area since the conference season tipped off, holding AAC opponents to under 45 percent, the second-best mark in the league.
UAB pulled off a highly improbable first-round win over South Florida, but the latter is more battle-tested, with a better resume and matchup advantages at both ends of the court. I'm running with the Bulls in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: South Florida -2.5
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Marist 
at Siena 
On the surface, Siena's offense seems overmatched by Marist's defense, but the picture looks drastically different when we focus on data from the conference season.
The Saints rank 214th in adjusted offensive efficiency for the season, well below Marist's 32nd-ranked defense. That said, Siena's offense has actually performed at the highest level in the MAAC during conference play. The Saints' offense leads the league in efficiency, effective field goal percentage, and turnover percentage. The Saints also rank among the top four MAAC teams in offensive rebounding and two-point and three-point field goal percentages. I'd be remiss if I didn't acknowledge that Marist leads the league in defensive efficiency over the same span, though the point remains: Siena has been the best offensive team in the league.
At the other end of the court, the Saints have a decisive edge over the Red Foxes, who have had problems scoring all year. Marist ranks 313th in adjusted offensive efficiency and particularly struggles to get to the charity stripe and score from the perimeter. The Red Foxes rank 353rd in free-throw attempt rate and are making 31 percent of three-point attempts (302nd), leaving them with few scoring options on a regular basis. Siena, meanwhile, has respectable defensive numbers, ranking above the D-1 average in adjusted efficiency and the usual four key categories: effective field goal percentage allowed, turnovers, rebounding, and free-throw attempts allowed.
Marist will most likely need to play perfect defense for it to come away with the road win. All things considered, I'd rather go with the team that's better at scoring and playing at home. I'm taking the Saints.
College Basketball Best Bet: Siena -1.5
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UC San Diego 
at UC Davis 
UC San Diego's offense is the strongest element in this matchup, posting an adjusted efficiency rating that ranks 83rd nationally, the highest mark among Big West teams. At the same time, the Aggies rank 205th in adjusted defensive efficiency, obviously a wide gap, but there's another issue at play.
KenPom data suggests that the Aggies' defensive success is highly correlated with causing turnovers, to an extreme extent. So much so that an increase in defensive turnover percentage correlates to success nearly to the same extent as effective field goal percentage allowed. This isn't necessarily an issue, but it is in this case; UC Davis will face a UC San Diego team that rarely gives the ball away. The Tritons rank 55th in offensive turnover percentage, and they lead the Big West during the conference season in both offensive turnovers and non-steal turnover percentage.
The Aggies have performed better when the ball is in their hands, although the Tritons have played at a comparable level defensively. For the season, UC Davis ranks 140th in adjusted offensive efficiency, with UC San Diego's defense on its heels at 149th. The difference has carried over into the conference season as well, where the Aggies rank fourth in the league in offensive rating and the Tritons rank fifth in defensive rating.
Given the better offensive team and a defense that can holds it own, I'm laying the points with the Tritons.
College Basketball Best Bet: UC San Diego -2.5
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Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- South Florida -2.5
- Siena -1.5
- UC San Diego -2.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
