Most of the prominent college hoops teams have the night off on Thursday, but thankfully, we've still got quite a few matchups to consider. Here are my predictions for a trio of games, featuring a Big Ten matchup and a few mid-major teams.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Ohio State 
at Maryland 
The Terps are enduring a nightmare of a season, and there haven't been any indications that a turnaround is imminent.
Maryland has struggled mightily at both ends of the court, but it's been a tick worse offensively. That is to say, the Terrapins have a case for being the worst offensive team in the Big Ten.
Maryland's offense has the worst adjusted efficiency rating among all Big Ten teams for the whole season, and the Terps rank second-worst during the conference season. Maryland also ranks second-worst in effective field goal percentage and two-point field goal percentage, barely making 46 percent against league opponents. For good measure, I should point out that the Terps also frequently give the ball away, fourth-worst in turnover percentage, and while their one strength is getting to the charity stripe, they have struggled to convert their foul shots. Maryland has made a league-worst 67 percent of free throws during the conference season.
The story is similarly bleak at the other end of the court, with the main difference being that Maryland's defense must face Ohio State's dynamic offense. The Buckeyes rank among the top 30 teams nationally in adjusted efficiency, effective field goal percentage, free-throw make percentage, and two-point field goal percentage, having made 60 percent against all opponents. The latter should be of great concern for Maryland, as the Terps are allowing Big Ten opponents to make 59 percent of shot attempts inside the arc, the second-worst mark in the league.
Overall, these two teams are on completely different levels. I'm betting Ohio State's potent offense will eventually go on a big run. I'm laying the points with the Buckeyes.
College Basketball Best Bet: Ohio State -6.5
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Memphis 
at UAB 
This pick is all about offense, or rather, a lack of it.
The Tigers' offense often struggles to score and has poor marks in most areas, ranking outside the top 210 teams in adjusted efficiency, free-throw attempt rate, three-point and two-point field goal percentages, and free-throw make percentage. The worst trait of all, however, is their penchant for giving the ball away. Memphis ranks 339th in offensive turnover percentage and ranks last in the American Conference during league play. The Tigers often have one saving grace, but there's a chance they won't have it on Thursday.
Namely, Memphis ranks 43rd in offensive rebounding percentage, an important skill for a shooting-challenged team. The only problem is that UAB ranks 29th in defensive rebounding, effectively neutralizing the Tigers' best asset. Outside of the glass, UAB's defense has performed at above-average levels. The Blazers' defense ranks within the top 140 teams in adjusted efficiency, effective field goal percentage allowed, free-throw attempt rate allowed, and two-point field goal percentage, holding opponents to 50 percent.
When the Tigers earn a win, it's usually on the strength of their defense. Memphis' defense ranks among the top-40 teams in adjusted efficiency and turnover percentage, and against league competition, it leads the AAC in efficiency and effective field goal percentage allowed.
UAB, meanwhile, has performed below average offensively for an AAC team, ranking ninth in the league in efficiency and among the bottom three teams in effective field goal percentage and offensive rebounding. The Blazers' biggest limitation is their inability to score from the perimeter. Between UAB's paltry three-point shooting percentage (29 percent) and its lack of attempts, three-pointers account for only 20 percent of UAB's total points, the fifth-lowest mark among all 365 D-1 teams. This might not matter as much against a weak defense, but it's a good assumption that Memphis is aware of this limitation and will have the ability to fortify the paint.
All things considered, I like our odds of seeing a low-scoring, defensive battle. I'm on the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 153.5
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Northern Colorado 
at Weber State 
At first glance, these two teams seem somewhat similar, with the commonality being that both are substantially stronger offensively than defensively, with both sharing similar adjusted efficiency ratings.
That said, a closer look reveals some significant differences.
First, while Weber State's defense tends to force turnovers, it also gets destroyed in the paint. The Wildcats are allowing opponents to make 57 percent of their two-point attempts (328th), a significant problem that has persisted against league opponents. Weber State is also allowing Big Sky opponents to make 57 percent of shot attempts inside the arc, the worst mark in the league. This is welcome news for Northern Colorado, as the Bears have made 57 percent of two-pointers against all opponents, the 42nd-highest mark. They also have the fourth-highest mark during the Big Sky conference season, making 54 percent against league opponents.
Defensively, Northern Colorado has struggled, similar to Weber State, although the former is much better at fundamentals. The Bears boast the seventh-highest defensive rebounding percentage nationally, a key strength for any defense in any matchup. They're also holding conference opponents to under 54 percent on two-point attempts, the sixth-best mark in the league.
These fundamental defensive skills are good to have long-term, although I would be remiss if I didn't note that Weber State tends to live or die with the three-point shot. Against Big Sky opponents, the Wildcats have made 38 percent of three-point attempts, the second-highest mark in the league, but they've only made 49 percent of two-point attempts, the second-worst in the league.
Overall, Northern Colorado has superior adjusted efficiency rankings than Weber State at both ends of the court. Given a small spread, I'm going with the Bears in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Northern Colorado -1.5
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Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Ohio State -6.5
- Memphis at UAB - Under 153.5
- Northern Colorado -1.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
