We have a big-time Big Ten battle at the center stage of Thursday's slate. Here are my predictions for the game of the night, as well as a couple of other matchups starring mid-major conferences.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
For up-to-the-minute updates on injuries, player performance and the transfer portal, head RotoWire's latest college basketball news page or follow @RotoWireCBB on X.
Liberty 
at Kennesaw State 
The Flames have shot the ball as well as any other team in the nation. They have made 61 percent of two-point attempts (sixth) and 40 percent of their three-point attempts (fifth), yielding the second-highest effective field goal percentage among all D-1 teams. Their conversion rate from the perimeter is exceptional, and it's all the more impressive considering they hoist up three-pointers at a frequency that ranks among the top 40 teams.
Kennesaw State's defense, on the other hand, has performed below average, ranking outside the top 200 teams in adjusted efficiency, turnovers, and rebounding. The Owls often do a good job of forcing tough shots in the paint, although they're also a bit too physical, posting the seventh-worst free-throw attempt rate allowed among all D-1 teams. Kennesaw State's defense has also performed below average for Conference USA standards, posting the fifth-worst efficiency rating during league play.
When the Owls have the ball, their offense often relies on an abundance of points from the charity stripe. They score 24 percent of their total points off free throws, the 35th-highest mark. This could be a positive trait in the right matchup, except this isn't the one, on paper at least. Liberty's defense has the 14th-lowest free-throw attempt rate allowed in D-1, with opponents scoring just 16 percent of their total points from the foul line, the 16th-lowest mark.
Outside of the foul line, Kennesaw State has made just 50 percent of shots inside the arc and 33 percent beyond it, making it easy to see why the Owls score a larger portion of points from the foul line.
Liberty hosted Kennesaw State near the start of the New Year and won convincingly, 81-73. The Flames jumped out to a 46-29 lead and never trailed thereafter, despite a brief push by Kennesaw State at the start of the second-half.
Given a short spread, I'm taking the team that's significantly better at scoring points. I'm looking to catch fire with the Flames on Thursday.
College Basketball Best Bet: Liberty -1.5
There are so many ways to get in on the CBB betting action ahead of March Madness. Claim over a thousand dollars in bonuses by signing up at the best sports betting sites using the best sportsbook promos.
Michigan State 
at Purdue 
Michigan State's elite defense can keep it in most games, but its offense is proving to be a limiting factor. State scored under 74 points in all five of its losses.
The Spartans' offense ranks 42nd in adjusted efficiency and 7th in the Big Ten conference season, which is respectable but still noticeably lower than Purdue's defense, which ranks 23rd in adjusted efficiency and fourth in the league. Perhaps more importantly, the Boilermakers are outstanding at securing boards and defending without fouling. These are critical strengths against Michigan State's offense, as the Spartans rank second in the Big Ten in offensive rebounding and have scored 21 percent of their total points from the charity stripe, the second-highest mark in the league. Purdue's defense ranks among the top 20 teams nationally in both rebounding and free-throw attempt rate allowed, so Michigan State will likely see fewer second-chance opportunities and fewer foul shots than they're accustomed to seeing.
At the other end of the court, both teams have performed among the best. Purdue's offense boasts the second-best adjusted efficiency rating nationally, with Michigan State's defense sitting at sixth. It's hard to find any major flaws with either unit, although Michigan State doesn't often generate takeaways, ranking 279th in turnover percentage. Purdue shoots the ball exceptionally well, 11th in effective field goal percentage, so a lack of turnovers could be a key factor in Thursday's outcome.
Michigan State can grind out a win with its defense, but my money's on one of the best offensive teams in the nation doing enough to get the job done. I'm riding with the Boilermakers in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Purdue -7
Check out Caesars Sportsbook this season and use the Caesars Sportsbook promo code for one of the top college basketball betting promos out there.
Wichita State 
at Memphis 
I'm not one for kicking a team when it's down, but it's easy to see why Memphis is riding a four-game losing streak. Unfortunately for the Tigers, Thursday's scouting report does them no favors.
Memphis has played well defensively this season, ranking 44th in adjusted efficiency, despite having two significant flaws. The Tigers are among the worst on the defensive glass and also frequently send opponents to the foul line, ranking among the worst 40 teams in rebounding percentage and free-throw attempt rate allowed. Wichita State, meanwhile, is among the best at generating second-chance opportunities, ranking 12th nationally in offensive rebounding. The Shockers' offense also has above-average marks in adjusted efficiency, turnovers, and free-throw attempt rate.
It's imperative for Memphis to get stops to win because its offense is far from reliable. The Tigers' offense ranks 226th in adjusted efficiency and struggles to take care of the ball and make shots. They have made just 49 percent of two-point attempts (276th) and 32 percent of three-point attempts (292nd), yielding an effective field goal percentage that ranks 299th. For good measure, it's also worth noting that Memphis often gives the ball away, ranking among the 30 worst teams in turnover percentage. Memphis' primary saving grace offensively is its ability to grab rebounds, 39th in offensive rebounding percentage, although Wichita State has the fourth-best defensive rebounding percentage during the conference season, which mitigates the Tigers' strength.
These teams previously faced off in late January, with Wichita State dominating from start to finish, 74-59. The Shockers jumped out to a 29-11 lead and never looked back.
Overall, Wichita State is the better team with a better resume. Perhaps Memphis finds a spark at home, but I'm not betting on it. I'm taking the Shockers.
College Basketball Best Bet: Wichita State +1.5
Check out BetMGM Sportsbook to bet on National Championship Odds, and use this BetMGM Bonus Code for a great welcome offer.
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Liberty -1.5
- Purdue -7
- Wichita State +1.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
