It's a mid-major kinda day on Thursday's slate, as all the usual power conference teams have a night off. Coming off a 3-0 sweep and winning eight of my last nine picks, I present my predictions for a trio of games starring mid-major teams.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Hofstra 
at Charleston
The most valuable asset in this matchup belongs to Hofstra's offense, which ranks 87th in adjusted efficiency. The Pride has established itself as the best offensive team in the CAA, leading the league in the following categories during the conference season: efficiency, offensive rebounding, three-point field goal percentage (39 percent), and free throw make percentage (78 percent).
Charleston's defense, meanwhile, has played at a mediocre level, and it has a couple of deficiencies that Hofstra can exploit. Namely, Charleston ranks 214th in defensive rebounding percentage and 335th in turnover percentage. The Cougars are sixth in defensive efficiency among CAA teams during league play, not awful but still average at best.
At the other end of the court, we have a much more even matchup. Both Charleston's offense and Hofstra's defense are ranked seventh in efficiency during the CAA conference season, and they also both lead the league in the two-point field goal percentage, as Charleston has made 56 percent of two-point attempts against conference opponents, with Hofstra holding opponents to 45 percent. It's worth noting that while we have a stalemate in multiple key categories, Hofstra has a decisive edge in effective field goal percentage and rebounding. The Cougars' offense is ranked sixth in the former and ninth in the latter among CAA teams, while the Pride's defense is ranked second and fifth, respectively.
In what is essentially a pick'em, my money's on the best offensive team in the CAA pulling away in the second half. I'm taking the Pride.
College Basketball Best Bet: Hofstra +1.5
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Murray State 
at Indiana State 
Murray State has proven to have a dynamic offense with no major weaknesses. The Racers' offense ranks among the top 60 teams nationally in adjusted efficiency, effective field goal percentage, and two-point field goal percentage (57 percent). They also rank among the top 100 teams in offensive rebounding percentage and free-throw attempt rate, while also making 35 percent of three-pointers (with a high attempt rate, 70th), rounding out a complete arsenal for attacking opposing defenses.
In contrast, Indiana State has been lackluster at getting stops and is weak in a couple of key areas. The Sycamores' defense ranks 179th in adjusted efficiency and 226th in defensive rebounding percentage, two indicators of a vulnerable defense. They are also allowing MVC opponents to make 54 percent of two-point attempts, the third-worst mark in the league.
The Racers haven't been nearly as sharp when playing in the other direction, but that's okay in this matchup because the Sycamores have hardly played any better, if at all. During league play, Indiana State's offense ranks among the bottom four teams in efficiency, turnovers, rebounding, free throw attempts, free throw make percentage, and block percentage allowed.
These two teams already faced off in mid-January, with Murray State hosting and winning by four. The interesting part about this game, in hindsight, is that Indiana State shot the ball well, posting a season-high 50 percent on three-pointers (8-of-16), and they still lost the game somewhat decisively. For context, Murray State held a 10-point lead at halftime, and KenPom gave them at least an 80 percent chance of winning throughout the entire game.
All things considered, I'm riding with the Racers.
College Basketball Best Bet: Murray State -3.5
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Illinois Chicago 
at Drake 
The biggest liability in this matchup belongs to Drake's defense, which ranks 249th in adjusted efficiency. The Bulldogs' inability to consistently get stops has carried over into the conference season, where Drake's defense ranks last among MVC teams in efficiency, effective field goal percentage allowed, free-throw attempt rate allowed, and three-point field goal percentage, allowing 38 percent. Additionally, Drake is allowing MVC opponents to make 54 percent of shots inside the arc, the second-worst mark in the league, and it's been weaker on the glass, posting the fourth-worst defensive rebounding percentage.
The latter may be the most significant weakness, as the UIC's best offensive skill is its ability to clean the glass. The Flames' offense ranks 24th in offensive rebounding percentage for the season, including the highest rate in the MVC conference season . UIC also has a habit of drawing fouls, ranking 93rd in free-throw attempt rate, another valuable skill against a team that has had severe foul trouble against MVC opponents.
With a porous defense, it's no surprise to see that Drake's offense has carried it through much of the season. The only problem is that Thursday presents a formidable challenge. The Flames have performed at a relatively high level defensively, ranking among the top four MVC teams in the following categories during conference play: efficiency, effective field goal percentage allowed, three-point field goal percentage allowed (32 percent), and two-point field goal percentage allowed (52 percent). I would also be remiss if I didn't note that UIC leads the league in turnover and steal percentages.
Considering the Flames have a few key offensive advantages in this matchup and a solid defense, I like UIC's odds of earning a hard-fought road win. I'm firing on the Flames on Thursday.
College Basketball Best Bet: Illinois Chicago +1.5
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Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Hofstra +1.5
- Murray State -3.5
- Illinois Chicago +1.5
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