Today needs little introduction as most college hoops fans know exactly what's at stake. We have tickets being punched for the big dance, and seeds are being finalized, with Saturday's performances possibly affecting final positioning. Here are my predictions for SEC, Big East, and Big 12 tournament games.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Mississippi 
vs. Arkansas 
I faded Ole Miss on Friday, and the decision backfired as the Rebels defeated the Alabama Crimson Tide, 80-79. Despite making just 32 percent of three-pointers against SEC opponents, the second-worst mark in the league, Ole Miss has now made at least 42 percent of its three-point attempts in back-to-back games, the first time they've done so since early November in the second and third games of the season.
Aside from poor perimeter shooting (on most occasions), the Rebels' offense also ranked among the three worst in the SEC in efficiency, effective field goal percentage, rebounding, free-throw attempt rate, and two-point field goal percentage (50 percent).
The Razorbacks, meanwhile, aren't bad defensively. During conference play, their defense ranked sixth in efficiency, rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate. They also had the fourth-highest turnover percentage, further illustrating their ability to cause havoc for opposing teams.
Offensively, Arkansas is led by superstar freshman Darius Acuff Jr., recently named SEC Player of the Year, as selected by the league's head coaches.
With Acuff leading the way, the Razorbacks have an elite offensive attack. They rank sixth nationally in adjusted efficiency, boast the best offensive turnover percentage among all D-1 teams, and they posted the highest effective field goal percentage of the SEC conference season.
In contrast, Mississippi's defense ranked ninth in efficiency, third-worst in rebounding, and last in free-throw attempt rate allowed.
The Rebels are on a nice run, but they won only four conference games during the regular season. I find it hard to believe they'll win four SEC tournament games in four days. Anything is possible in March, but I'm betting Arkansas pulls away in the second half. I'm laying the points.
College Basketball Best Bet: Arkansas -8.5
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Houston 
vs. Arizona 
Here we have two of the nation's top defensive teams squaring off.
Most college hoops fans are well aware of Houston's signature elite defense, and this year is no different, as the Cougars rank fifth in adjusted efficiency.
The only problem is that they don't have the best defensive numbers in the Big 12, a distinction that belongs to Arizona, which ranks third nationally in adjusted efficiency.
On paper, Houston's offense should be capable of matching up to the task, as it led the Big 12 in efficiency and turnover percentage during the conference season. That said, I thought this was the case when Houston hosted Arizona in February, and the Wildcats proved otherwise. Houston kept the game close for a while, but Arizona held them scoreless for a seven-minute stretch in the second half, enroute to a 73-66 victory.
Given how the numbers stand a few weeks later, I'm inclined to think we'll see a similar outcome. During conference play, Arizona's defense led the Big 12 in efficiency, rebounding, free-throw attempt rate allowed, two-point shooting, three-point shooting, and effective field goal percentage allowed. Utterly dominant, in other words.
At the same time, Houston has rallied, and its defense has lived up to its reputation during the Big 12 tournament, holding BYU to 66 points and Kansas to 47, with both opponents featuring players who will likely be top-2 or top-3 NBA draft picks.
All things considered, I like our odds of seeing a low-scoring, grinding championship game. I'm taking the Under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 138.5
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Connecticut 
vs. St. John's 
Both teams in this matchup are elite defensively, without much separation. UConn has the edge in defensive adjusted efficiency, while St. John's had the slightly better defensive rating during Big East play.
Because of this, I believe a closer look at each offense will give us more indications for who will win on Saturday.
The Johnnies are great in several offensive areas, so they can't be ruled out in any matchup, though we also can't ignore their poor shooting percentages. Against Big East opponents, St. John's made just 49 percent of shots inside the arc, the second-worst mark in the league. And, combined with their 34 percent from beyond the arc, they ranked seventh in effective field goal percentage.
In contrast, the Huskies had the best offensive attack during the Big East conference season, leading the league in efficiency, two-point field goal percentage (56 percent), and effective field goal percentage. They were also second in rebounding percentage and three-point field-goal percentage (36 percent), further rounding out an elite skill set.
UConn has only suffered four losses, and one of them came against St. John's at Madison Square Garden, 81-72, so the Johnnies certainly have a shot at winning on Saturday. Even still, it's also worth remembering that UConn avenged this loss and defeated St. John's, 72-40, a couple of weeks later in Hartford.
I doubt the Huskies will win by 30 points again, but, assuming their defense plays up to its usual standard, I trust their offense a bit more. I'm going with the Huskies in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: UConn -2.5
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Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Arkansas -8.5
- Houston vs. Arizona - Under 138.5
- UConn -2.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
