This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
As someone who lives in Denver, this could sadly be one of their final games this season. They're staring an 0-3 deficit down the barrel, and no team has ever overcome that in NBA history. That means they should come out hungry because they at least want to force the series back to Phoenix. The other matchup on this slate is Milwaukee-Brooklyn with the Nets leading 2-1. They played a 1980's-type game on Thursday (86-83) and it'll be interesting to see how Game 4 plays out with so much on the line.
Guards
Chris Paul. PHX at DEN ($32)
Paul was labored by a shoulder issue in the first round, but that appears to be a thing of the past. The perennial All-Star has been destroying Denver averaging 21.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, 11.3 assists, and 1.3 steals across the last three games. Those were all blowouts, but Paul still managed to record at least 46 Yahoo points in each. That's obviously a ridiculous floor and it's also amazing he's doing that damage on only 13 shots a night.
Will Barton, DEN vs. PHX ($19)
Barton just returned from a long-term hamstring issue in Game 2. And if Game 3 is any indication, he's going to be one of the offensive focal points for the rest of the series. He was essentially playing point guard when Jamal Murray was out before, and that's close to his role now. Barton is coming off the bench and is one of Denver's leaders with a 24 percent usage rate. More importantly, he got up to 28 minutes in Game 3 while dropping 26 Y! points. That means 30 minutes is likely Barton's floor in this must-win matchup, which is huge from someone who averaged nearly 30 fantasy points operating in the same capacity as earlier in the campaign.
Guard to Avoid
Facundo Campazzo, DEN vs. PHX ($16)
Campazzo has been a pleasant surprise for the Nuggets without Murray, but his role is falling off. A big reason for that is the return of Barton and the emergence of Monte Morris off the bench. In the two since Barton's return, Campazzo hasn't cracked 12 Yahoo points in either while dropping from 29 minutes to 18. That's a horrifying trend, and it's even more concerning with Facu having to match up with CP3 and a top-5 Phoenix D.
Forwards
Blake Griffin, BKN at MIL ($14)
It looked like Griffin's career was winding to an end when he was slugging around in Detroit, but he's looked completely revived in this Brooklyn playoff run. The absence of Harden is the thing that's really opened things up, with BG averaging 31.2 Y! points per game across 30 minutes during this series. That's the All-Star we remember from his Clipper days, and it's clear Griffin is fully healthy the way he's diving all over the floor. We love that with Milwaukee ranked second in pace and playing a ton of small-ball, that forces Griffin into even more court time.
Bruce Brown, BKN at MIL ($12)
Brown got a lot of slack for taking two questionable shots at the end of Game 3, but it's overshadowing yet another fantastic performance. The defensive stopper has started the last two outings for James Harden while scoring at least 27 fantasy points in both. That extends a streak in which BB has reached 26 Y! points in four of his last five fixtures, which is hard to believe from such an affordable player. It's clear Brown will swallow up all of the minutes Harden is leaving behind, and it makes him one of the best values on the board.
Forward to Avoid
Joe Harris, BKN at MIL ($14)
With Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving swallowing up so much usage, there's not much left for Harris. What's also scary is that Griffin and Brown are taking a lot of touches while only leaving crumbs for Joe. That was on full display in Game 3 when Harris dropped 9.8 Yahoo points across 37 minutes. It's hard to score fewer than 10 fantasy points in that amount of playing time, but shooting 1-of-11 from the field will do that. If Harris's shot isn't falling, he's impossible to trust because he doesn't do much else statistically to help his fantasy value.
Center
Nikola Jokic, DEN vs. PHX ($51)
Can we admire how special Jokic was in Game 3? His team did lose, but the stat line is simply majestic. The Joker was crowned with his MVP award before that defeat and he went on to collect 32 points, 20 rebounds and 10 assists in one of the year's best fantasy performances. That sort of line is why he led the league with nearly 55 fantasy points per game and why he's reached 54-plus Y! points in six of nine playoff appearances this year. That's hard to overlook with Denver facing elimination, as Jokic should once again be in for 40 minutes, 25 shots and a 30 percent usage rate.
Center to Avoid
Deandre Ayton, PHX at DEN ($28)
Ayton has been amazing in these playoffs, but he's not doing anything outside of scoring and rebounding. While it has led to some fantastic production at times, it's a little worrisome from a DFS perspective. Despite recording double-doubles in three straight, Ayton hasn't cracked 33 Yahoo points in five while only averaging 24.3 Y! points during that span. That won't get it done at this salary, and it's far from surprising when you see DA is also averaging 1.0 assists, 0.2 steals and zero blocks. That's absolutely shocking and limits Ayton's upside.
