The last time a first-round series did not include a four-game sweep was in 2003, and the Thunder will try to extend the streak and go 4-0 against Phoenix tonight. Denver is also at risk of being expelled by the Timberwolves, but the fight between Detroit and Orlando will last for at least two more games. I've got you covered with the best FanDuel selections for the three-game set.
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FanDuel Main Slate NBA Games Today
Vegas suggests that we pay special attention to the MIN/DEN matchup, and we definitely provided our share of options there. We were probably lightest on the DET/ORL game, but we managed to find a few safe options in that contest as well.
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NBA Injuries Today
For all the latest updates, visit RotoWire's NBA Injury News page and our comprehensive NBA Injury Report. Below are some of the most recent and relevant injuries for Monday.
OKC Jalen Williams (hamstring) - OUT
Williams remains on the report after several other players cleared out of the list, and the team has utilized Luguentz Dort ($3,700) and Ajay Mitchell ($5,040) to account for his absence. Mitchell's shot volume was massive in their last game, but he'll need more success finding the bottom of the basket to be viable.
PHX Jordan Goodwin (calf) - QUESTIONABLE
PHX Mark Williams (foot) - OUT
I expect Goodwin to return for the elimination game, but it'll be Oso Ighodaro ($4,400) at center once again.
MIN Anthony Edwards (knee) - OUT
MIN Donte DiVincenzo (Achilles) - OUT FOR SEASON
Once again, it's all systems go for Ayo Dosunmu ($6,400). The salary is just too good to pass up, and his potential is uncapped with Edwards and DiVincenzo unavailable. He's probably my favorite play on the slate tonight.
DEN Aaron Gordon (calf) - QUESTIONABLE
DEN Peyton Watson (hamstring) - OUT
Gordon will probably try to make the floor in the elimination game, so I have no worthwhile pivots to report for Denver.
Elite Players
We have three players with salaries above $10k for Monday's slate. Unsurprisingly, Nikola Jokic ($12,700) leads the pack. Although this could be our last chance to use Jokic, the Timberwolves have been fairly successful at limiting Jokic from posting massive totals. His best result against Minnesota was 63.5 FDFPs in Game 4, and it was the only total that came close to 5x production at the current salary. Jokic is a borderline yes for me due to the elimination scenario, but I don't view him as a lock. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,300) and Cade Cunningham ($10,200) round out the $10k options. SGA is consistently outperforming his salary, but Cunningham has yet to hit 5x value in the first round. SGA might also take a seat if the Thunder take control, but he's still viable in my book.
The slate offers only three players above $8k after the $10k selections, which is a good sign that we can allow for someone like Jokic or SGA with more budget options down the line. Jamal Murray ($9,400) is a sensible pick given his solid totals in the series, and I'll also consider Paolo Banchero ($8,400) at home against Detroit.
Expected Chalk, Mid-Range Targets and Value Plays
Devin Booker, PHX ($7,800) vs. OKC
It's been a rough road for Booker during this series, and it's one reason why he's dipped below $8k. I believe the Suns' only hope is to get a night from Booker that rivals Jalen Green ($6,800), who's come up with better results overall. Recency data certainly favors Green at this salary, but we've seen Booker's ability to explode throughout his career, and he needs one of those nights to avoid an early exit.
Chet Holmgren, OKC ($7,400) @ PHX
Holmgren will be a nice fit at PF, although we can also use him as a center. Isaiah Hartenstein isn't doing enough to beat 5x value at his current salary, but Holmgren has a good chance to get there against the Suns, who have had difficulty containing him in this series.
Rudy Gobert, MIN ($6,700) @ DEN
Gobert kicks off a trio of Minnesota endorsements. If you find yourself unsuccessful in getting Jokic to fit, Gobert is an excellent alternative. He posted excellent numbers over the past two games after a slow start to the series, and Jokic had trouble keeping him in check. He only has center eligibility, but I'm fine with locking him in over higher-priced calls like Randle or Jalen Duren.
Jaden McDaniels, MIN ($6,600) @ DEN
Things got dicey between McDaniels and Jokic in Game 4. It doesn't appear that there will be any disciplinary action for the players involved in the fourth-quarter scuffle, but Jokic and Julius Randle were fined. I expect McDaniels to mix it up once again, and there will be added pressure to help out Ayo Dosunmu as both players try to pick up the slack from Edwards' absence.
Dillon Brooks, PHX ($5,800) vs. OKC
We need to sprinkle Brooks into our builds. He has excellent eligibility at SG and SF, and his production will be essential if the Suns have any hope of extending the series. He'll continue to face less resistance without Jalen Williams in the lineup, but Luguentz Dort is an exceptional defender who could cause some problems.
Naz Reid, MIN ($5,500) @ DEN
Although Jokic is difficult to contain, the Timberwolves benefit by carrying a much deeper depth chart up front. They can begin with throwing Randle and Gobert against him and follow up with Reid, who would be a starting four or five on almost any other team. I expect the Nuggets to keep things close at home, but the Timberwolves will employ Reid and keep the backcourt fresh for a fourth-quarter rally.
Cason Wallace, OKC ($3,900) @ PHX
While I'm not entirely confident in Wallace, I think he's our best avenue to get SGA and Jokic involved in the same lineup. At the very least, we could get Banchero or Murray with one of the $10k options. Jalen Williams' output will get absorbed by a few different players, but Wallace certainly qualifies as a candidate.
Also consider: Tobias Harris, DET ($6,200) @ ORL, Franz Wagner, ORL ($6,400) vs. DET
