Wednesday's FanDuel NBA main slate features seven games packed with DFS opportunities. Often called the 'silly season', the final week of the NBA's regular season is particularly frustrating for those partaking in DFS, props, and general sports betting. Teams with nothing left to play for are emptying their benches, summoning players from the G League and placing minute restrictions on their elite players. Meanwhile, teams that are firmly placed in their playoff seeds are beginning to hold back their best players to save them for the playoffs. We must identify the teams most motivated to play their starters. Alongside that group, we'll do our best to identify values who are newly emerging as producers for the teams that are tanking.
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FanDuel Main Slate NBA Games Today
The MEM/DEN matchup holds the highest projected total, and while some of Memphis' budget pivots didn't make my list, you can certainly find some value there. I'm a fan of ATL/CLE and OKC/LAC. They should be the most watchable games, and there's ample DFS action to target in both contests.
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NBA Injuries Today
For all the latest updates, visit RotoWire's NBA Injury News page and our comprehensive NBA Injury Report. Below are some of the most recent and relevant injuries for Wednesday. Keep in mind that this is not a complete list. Use your best judgment when evaluating ongoing injury scenarios elsewhere on the slate.
CLE Donovan Mitchell (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
We'll work on the assumption that Mitchell plays tonight.
MIN Anthony Edwards (knee) - QUESTIONABLE
MIN Jaden McDaniels (knee) - DOUBTFUL
The upgrade for Edwards is a strong indication that he'll start tonight. Ayo Dosunmu ($7,100) will still be a good play with McDaniels out.
ORL Wendell Carter (neck) - QUESTIONABLE
Carter suffered the injury during Monday's game. If he's unable to play, Goga Bitadze ($4,200) would emerge as the budget pivot.
MIL Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) - DOUBTFUL
MIL Bobby Portis (wrist) - QUESTIONABLE
MIL Myles Turner (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
MIL Kyle Kuzma (Achilles) - QUESTIONABLE
MIL Ryan Rollins (hip) - QUESTIONABLE
MIL Gary Trent (hip) - QUESTIONABLE
Will the Bucks keep these players out? The backups made things look easy in a beatdown against Memphis, but the Pistons will be another matter. There's no point in endorsing anyone before knowing the final decisions, but you can safely guess that Ousmane Dieng ($7,300) will have some impact.
DET Cade Cunningham (chest) - QUESTIONABLE
Cunningham has been upgraded, so he'll have a chance to return against the Bucks. If he can't make it, Daniss Jenkins ($7,500) will continue to start in his place.
MEM Ty Jerome (ankle) - OUT
MEM GG Jackson (knee) - OUT
MEM Cam Spencer (back) - OUT
MEM Javon Small (thigh) - OUT
MEM Olivier-Maxence Prosper (ankle) - DOUBTFUL
The Grizzlies are still a short-handed mess. We'll probably see more of Lucas Williamson ($4,400) and Walter Clayton ($4,400) against the Nuggets, with Cedric Coward ($5,600) appearing as the only usual starter.
POR Shaedon Sharpe (calf) - DOUBTFUL
POR Jerami Grant (calf) - OUT
Scoot Henderson ($5,600) is now a routine starter in the backcourt, and his reduced salary presents some value. Toumani Camara's ($5,900) salary remains surprisingly low despite recently turning in some huge numbers.
SAS Victor Wembanyama (ribs) - DOUBTFUL
SAS Stephon Castle (knee) - DOUBTFUL
With Castle out, moving to De'Aaron Fox ($6,800) makes a lot of sense, especially at the favorable salary. Any number of options could move to the forefront during Wemby's absence, but Keldon Johnson's ($4,900) rebounding ability makes him a sneaky budget add.
DAL P.J. Washington (elbow) - QUESTIONABLE
DAL Daniel Gafford (shoulder) - QUESTIONABLE
DAL Naji Marshall (undisclosed) - QUESTIONABLE
We'll have to wait and see if Dallas shuts down these players against the Suns. There's certainly no need to rush them along. The Mavs are another team to check in with later in the day.
Elite Players
Wednesday's slate has five healthy players with $10k-plus salaries. I don't doubt prolific numbers from all of them, but Jalen Johnson ($10,500) sticks out as the best value. The Hawks want to stay at the fifth seed in the East, and they'll need some wins to fend off Toronto and Philly. We're looking for players on teams like the Hawks, who have a lot to play for. The Nuggets might empty the bench against Memphis, so Nikola Jokic's salary isn't appealing enough. The matchup between Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,700) and Kawhi Leonard ($10,000) is intriguing, and I may elect to use one of them if I can find decent pivots to allow for their inclusion.
I'll go with Paolo Banchero ($9,400) in the $9k range, and I'm open to James Harden ($9,200) if Mitchell's injury tag holds. The $8k tier has five players to choose from, but I'm not especially enthusiastic about any of them. The chance of beating 5x value just isn't there for any of the options.
Expected Chalk and Mid-Range Targets
Chet Holmgren, OKC ($7,200) @ LAC
The Thunder will probably try to break through up front right away. While Derrick Jones and Brook Lopez have had some success, Holmgren's recent numbers give me confidence in using him against anyone. The Clippers are also on a back-to-back and could be a bit slower against the Thunder.
Donovan Clingan, POR ($7,600) @ SAS
I would have liked to see Clingan at a lower salary, but we may encounter a Spurs defense that struggles a bit without Wembanyama's impact. The idea of taking Deni Avdija ($9,900) is alluring, but spending that much on a guess doesn't seem sound. I'm far more willing to hope for a double-double from Clingan at this spot.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker, ATL ($7,600) @ CLE
As usual, there are a lot of different ways you can go with the Hawks, and the chance of getting similar production from CJ McCollum ($6,500) is always a possibility. I'm mentioning Alexander-Walker first, but I see the rationale for going with McCollum or Dyson Daniels ($7,300). You'll want to have at least one of these options in most of your builds, with two of them being an option if you choose to exclude Johnson.
Aaron Gordon, DEN ($6,100) vs. MEM
The Nuggets won't need to do much to prevail, but I think Gordon's chances of sticking around in a blowout are reasonably high. The Nuggets will rest Jokic if they're able, and Gordon is historically the best candidate to step in and take a larger role in the frontcourt. I'm also a big fan of the low salary.
Value Plays
Devin Vassell, SAS ($5,700) vs. POR
I expressed a good instinct about Johnson, but I also think Vassell could be in for a bigger game with Castle sidelined. Fox is obviously the best Castle pivot, but Vassell can be used to make up for Castle's ability to slash inside and make defenders miss. The Spurs need a united front to make up for the loss of two of their elites, and I am confident that Vassell will be a key part of that effort.
Dariq Whitehead, MEM ($5,200)@ DEN
We've seen three consecutive successes from Whitehead, who was recently elevated to the parent club. The Grizzlies need help at almost every position, so it wouldn't be surprising to see Whitehead pop up with a favorable total.
Luke Kornet, SAS ($4,100) vs. POR
I'm not entirely confident in Kornet, but it's easy to see how he could beat value as Wemby's direct replacement. I feel almost obligated to include him due to the obvious fill-in status, but I believe we'll see better support from other role players on the roster. If you want to take chances at center, you could do a lot worse.
Also consider: Harrison Barnes, SAS ($3,800) vs. POR
