Sound the alarm! Benches are emptying as teams begin to shut down for the season. While end-of-season slates can be frustrating, the value opportunities are plentiful and advantageous for our lineup construction. We get six games to inspect for Tuesday. Using RotoWire's trusty NBA DFS projections and our wide array of tools, I will make a deep dive into the player pool and present our best plays, with a special emphasis on the many opportunities available in short-handed rosters.
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DraftKings Main Slate NBA Games Today
Although high projected totals from CHI/WAS, UTA/NOP and MIA/TOR should turn heads, I don't think there's much use for the Vegas numbers tonight. We're targeting specific teams with special circumstances, with little attention paid to pace. We want production from teams like Charlotte, Miami and Toronto with a lot to play for, and value from teams like Milwaukee, Utah, Washington, Brooklyn and Indiana, who are all emptying their benches as the season draws to a close.
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NBA Injury Report Today
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CHI - OUT: Josh Giddey (hamstring), Matas Buzelis (illness), Nick Richards (elbow), Anfernee Simons (wrist)
The Bulls have run into bad luck heading into the final week, and we should expect some major lineup changes with no playoff hope. Collin Sexton (finger) ($6,300) is expected to play and should step up in the backcourt, and Leonard Miller ($5,100) is the likely pivot with Buzelis out.
WAS - OUT: Trae Young (quad), Alex Sarr (toe) QUESTIONABLE: Bilal Coulibaly (heel), Tre Johnson (foot), Tristan Vukcevic (knee), Justin Champagnie (knee)
Although the questionable tags all have chances to return, there isn't much need for them to rush back with nothing to play for. I expect the team to continue with Julian Reese ($5,500) at center if Vukcevic sits, and Anthony Gill ($4,600) will join the starting lineup if the other questionable tags downgrade to out.
MIN - OUT: Anthony Edwards (knee), Jaden McDaniels (knee)
Ayo Dosunmu ($6,900) remains a solid play in this scenario. Bones Hyland ($5,300) would be my risk-reward budget pivot.
IND - OUT: Pascal Siakam (ankle), T.J. McConnell (hamstring), Andrew Nembhard (back), Aaron Nesmith (neck) QUESTIONABLE: Jarace Walker (back), Ben Sheppard (hip)
Although we should consider Walker ($5,900) for a potential return, Obi Toppin ($4,300) is probable and should have an impact. Quenton Jackson ($4,600) is the guard to target, and Jalen Slawson ($4,200) has filled in well. He will be one of the best candidates for salary relief on the slate.
MIL - OUT: Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee), Bobby Portis (wrist), Myles Turner (ankle), Kyle Kuzma (Achilles), Gary Trent (hip) QUESTIONABLE: Ryan Rollins (hip)
The Bucks are shutting down most of these players for the remainder of the season. The best budget options for the rag-tag group are Jericho Sims ($5,100) and Pete Nance ($5,400) up front.
BKN - OUT: Nic Claxton (hand), Noah Clowney (ankle), Terance Mann (Achilles), Ziaire Williams (foot)
The Nets present another bench adventure for us. It's difficult to justify a pivot here, but the lowest ownership and highest upside probably fall in Nolan Traore's ($5,400) favor. E.J. Liddell ($3,500) is intriguing as a deep, deep bargain, but tread carefully.
TOR - QUESTIONABLE: Immanuel Quickley (foot)
The Raptors need this win to hold onto the sixth seed, so Quickley could go if he's ready. Otherwise, the starters will be at their best in a pivotal game against the Heat.
UTA - OUT: Keyonte George (hamstring), Isaiah Collier (hamstring), Elijah Harkless (hamstring), Lauri Markkanen (hip) QUESTIONABLE: Ace Bailey (knee), Kyle Filipowiski (back)
Utah's roster will likely require the most vigilance, given the two questionable tags for Bailey and Filipowski. We have to wait and see for the duo, but we can safely install Cody Williams ($5,800) as a backcourt starter. Brice Sensabaugh ($7,000) will also find his way to production.
NOP - OUT: Trey Murphy (ankle) QUESTIONABLE: Dejounte Murray (hand)
Jeremiah Fears ($6,100) will start and have a sizeable role if Murray remains out, and Saddiq Bey ($7,100) will fill in for Murphy.
Elite NBA DFS Players
Guards
LaMelo Ball, CHA ($8,700) @ BOS
If we're making our guard picks with playoff-based need in mind, Ball is probably the best example. The Hornets could find their way out of the play-in bracket with a little help, but they'll need to defy the odds and take this game from the Celtics. I don't expect the Celtics to sleep through this one, but Ball will do his best to break through.
Brandon Ingram, TOR ($8,200) vs. MIA
The Raptors share the same need as the Hornets, although they are currently inside the six-team field. Ingram is a bit frustrating because he doesn't have the luxury of dual eligibility on DraftKings, so his usefulness is limited to SG, G and Utility. I have no problem with any of Toronto's starters, but I think he has the best matchup within Miami's defense.
Forwards/Centers
Jayson Tatum, BOS ($10,000) vs. CHA
The Hornets could give the Celtics problems at home, and I think the Celtics will keep their elites active for at least one more game for insurance, with the Knicks hot on their heels for the second seed. Jaylen Brown ($9,800) is also fine, but I'd rather spend $200 more and opt for the better upside with Tatum.
Julius Randle, MIN ($8,600) @ IND
The Pacers are woefully short-handed tonight, and Randle's load has increased during Edwards extended absence. He's come close to, or beaten 5x value in four consecutive games, and although I'd like him for a few hundred less, I'll still take him at this salary.
Bam Adebayo, MIA ($8,800) @ TOR
The Heat need all they can get from Adebayo as they make a push to improve their seed, and it may be the last chance for Miami to escape 10th place. The matchup is stiff against Jakob Poeltl, but it's nothing Bam can't handle. He is the Heat's best chance for success in this pivotal matchup.
Expected NBA DFS Chalk
Tyler Herro, MIA ($7,800) @ TOR
Although any of the above players are candidates to achieve rostership over 20 percent, Herro's lowered salary and production upside should also be quite popular. Next to Adebayo, Herro is Miami's best chance for a fantasy-worthy total, and it should be a fierce fight between the Heat and Raptors as they jockey for playoff position.
Mid-Range NBA Targets
Ousmane Dieng, MIL ($7,200) @ BKN
Even though the Bucks are riddled with injuries, this matchup against the Nets is actually winnable as long as Dieng keeps up the production. Although Dieng carries a bit of risk, a look at Milwaukee's recent games shows how Dieng has earned this endorsement. Other replacements are motivated to earn a job next season, but Dieng has the best chance to put up a decent number.
Tre Jones, CHI ($6,900) @ WAS
Jones took advantage of Giddey's absence and managed a massive total, and he is in a great spot to exploit the short-handed Wizards. Although Sexton will likely return and join Jones in the backcourt, the advantage is clearly skewed toward the Duke product, who consistently posts big numbers when Giddey is sidelined.
NBA DFS Value Picks
Our best values can be found in the injury section, but I'll scrounge up a few additional options for you to use below.
Cormac Ryan, MIL ($4,900) @ BKN
Milwaukee's rotation is far from certain, but Ryan played a sizable role in the team's last game against Memphis. He missed only one of his eight shot attempts, with three conversions coming from beyond the arc. The Bucks will have a lot of questions to answer in the offseason, so it's reasonable to assume they'll give Ryan ample opportunity to prove his value.
Oscar Tshiebwe, UTA ($4,200) @ NOP
Although you'll need to wait on Filipowski's status before locking in Tshiebwe, he could generate a decent total regardless. Filipowski is bound to be part of Utah's rebuild, and they won't give him max minutes if he's limited in any way. The Kentucky product has played well in relief, and although he's limited to just two spots, you could do a lot worse for a dart throw.
Chaney Johnson, BKN ($4,000) vs. MIL
Johnson looks like a salary-saving proposition against the injury-riddled Bucks. With three consecutive games well over the 16 DKFPs required to hit 5x value, Johnson could be your ticket to additional elites on your roster. The door is wide open for him with Claxton and Clowney out.
