Handicapping the NBA: Best Bets for Lakers-Nuggets Game 3

This article is part of our NBA Picks series.

After a much-needed night off Monday, the NBA returns with Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals on Tuesday night.

Despite committing 23 turnovers and some poor execution late in the game, the Lakers hung on to take Game 2 thanks to a buzzer-beating three-pointer from Anthony Davis. The Nuggets have not faced an 0-2 deficit yet in these playoffs, but if any team has proven it can climb back into a series, it's Denver.

Using the DraftKings Sportsbook as our guide, let's take a look at some betting angles for Game 3.

The pick: OVER 214.5 points

Unsurprisingly, the Lakers enter Game 3 as 6.5-point favorites (-265 on the moneyline), while the total sits at 214.5 points -- up slightly from 214.0 earlier this afternoon. Game 1 was a lopsided, 126-114 blowout in favor of Los Angeles, while Game 2 finished at 105-103 for a total of 208.

The total checks in on the lower end of those two outcomes, which makes sense given that the Lakers' 126 points in Game 1 were their most since Game 5 against Portland, a team that at that point had essentially stopped playing defense.

In five games against Houston in Round 2, the Lakers never broke 120 points, though they did score at least 110 -- roughly their implied total Tuesday night -- in the final four games of the series.

Denver, of course, is a completely different opponent that brings a new set of challenges. Through two games, it's been difficult to get a read on the scoring patterns for both teams.

Game 1 was a foul-fest from the opening tip, with both teams combining to parade to the line 65 times. Nikola Jokic picked up three first-half fouls, and Anthony Davis had as many made free throws (12) as he had field goals. While the Lakers did hit 11-of-26 attempts (42.3%), neither team was on fire from three, so the combined 50 made free throws were the primary reason for the final score obliterating the projected total.

Game 2 was a completely different story. This time, the refereeing appeared to tilt toward the Nuggets' favor, as they attempted 33 free throws, compared to the Lakers' 19. Nikola Jokic accounted for 12 of those -- his most in any game since mid-January. Both teams had similar showings from beyond the arc, with the Lakers hitting 13-of-36 attempts, while Denver went 8-of-24.

Turnovers were the key difference-maker, with the two sides combining for 42 giveaways and the highest single-game turnover percentage of the entire postseason. Many of the Lakers' miscues came in the second half, when they managed only 45 points after putting up 60 in the first 24 minutes. Compared to their combined playoff averages, Denver and LA turned the ball over roughly 13 more times than usual.

Sidebar: The Lakers were incredibly lucky to win Game 2. Sunday's win snapped a 72-game playoff losing streak for teams finishing with negative turnover, field goal percentage, and free throw attempt differentials.

The pick: Lakers -6.5

On one hand, the Nuggets have given us no reason to believe they'll roll over against a superior opponent. On the other, it really, really felt like Game 2 was theirs for the taking. The Lakers won't commit 23 turnovers again, and LeBron James probably won't have another uncharacteristically poor second half like he did in Game 2.

I think we get another close game, so the 6.5-point spread is a little high for my liking. But coming off of a mistake-filled Game 2, I like the Lakers to rebound with a better all-around effort, particularly from Rajon Rondo and Kyle Kuzma, who accounted for 11 points and nine turnovers Sunday.

Danny Green also has room to improve (4-14 FG in Game 2), while I'm not sure the same can be said about most of Denver's role players. Jamal Murray is yet to detonate in this series, and while that could come Tuesday night, the Lakers have thus far done an outstanding job of blanketing him with Green, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Alex Caruso.

Note: DraftKings offers a Lakers (-6.5) + OVER 214.5 parlay at +280.

PROPS

Nikola Jokic OVER 23.5 points (-139)

Coming in under Jokic's average for the series and the playoffs, this number feels a little low -- especially after a 30-point effort in Game 2. Chances are, Jokic doesn't hit double-digit free throws again, but he's also just 1-of-4 from three in the series. Credit the Lakers for limiting Jokic's looks, but he'll need to be more aggressive hunting his shot for the Nuggets to have a chance. If we see the version of Jokic that dominated the fourth quarter Sunday, he should get to 24 points with relative ease.

Anthony Davis UNDER 1.5 made three-pointers (-162)

Davis hit a pair of massive threes late in Game 2, but neither were by design. The first was an end-of-shot-clock situation and, if you take Davis at his word, the ball was not supposed to end up in his hands to end the game. Davis did hit one of his three attempts in Game 1, but he failed to connect from deep in the final three games of the Houston series.

In the postseason, Davis has hit multiple threes only three times: Sunday night, Game 2 against Portland, and Game 5 against Portland.

LeBron James to finish with a triple-double (+365)

I wouldn't go too heavy on this, but the number is at the point where there's some value in betting James to pick up his first triple-double since Game 5 against the Blazers.

James missed two triple-doubles by one assist in the Houston series, and he's alternated double-digit assists and rebounds to begin the Conference Finals. James has grabbed at least 11 rebounds in three of his last four games, so assists may be the bigger concern. Ultimately, the determining factor may be whether or not the Lakers' role players are hitting open threes, as James often relies on cross-court skip passes and drive-and-kicks to rack up assists.

If you're a believer in a James triple-double, it's also worth considering taking the over on 42.5 (-117) combined points, assists and rebounds. Over 8.5 rebounds (-103) is also worth a look.

Anthony Davis OVER 2.5 assists (-180)

While he recorded only two assists in Game 2, Davis had at least four assists in each of his previous five games, and eight of his last nine overall. Both Davis and James have ceded some halfcourt playmaking to Rondo, but Davis is still a threat in fastbreak and drive-and-kick scenarios. For the playoffs, he ranks third on the team in potential assists (6.5 per game), though that number has shrunk to 4.0 per game against Denver.

Jamal Murray to lead the game in scoring (+380)

Value-wise, I like Murray at this number, and it's even worth considering Jokic at +460. Throughout the playoffs, Murray has been at his best when backed into a corner, and that's exactly where Denver finds itself. Against the Clippers, Murray waited until Game 7 to erupt for 40 points, but he may not have that same luxury in this series.

While my money is on the Lakers to win the game, Murray's resume suggests he has at least one more heroic effort in the holster. With Gary Harris, Jerami Grant, Torrey Craig and Paul Millsap all struggling to generate offense, this could be the night Murray takes matters into his own hands.

Paul Millsap OVER 4.5 rebounds (-139)

Through the first two games, Millsap has grabbed 14 rebounds, including eight in Game 2 -- a contest that featured 42 possessions that did not end in a shot. Millsap has gone over on that number in six of his last nine games, and it's encouraging that he played 28 minutes Sunday after seeing only 21 in Game 1.

Danny Green OVER 1.5 made three-pointers (-122)

Let the record show that I'm throwing this out there with extreme caution. For as solid of a veteran wing Green can be, on his bad nights his floor is unbelievably low -- suspiciously low, even. For the most part, Game 2 was one of those nights, though Green did splash three of his 10 attempts from beyond the arc.

For a player averaging 26.5 minutes and 5.5 attempts per game, most of which are wide open kick-outs, Green should have a good chance to again hit multiple threes -- something he's done in seven of his last 10 games.