This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
The major DFS sites will fade the early games on Saturday as usual, leaving us a six-game offering that kicks off at 7:00 p.m. ET. Even with a small slate, almost every team has an injury concern, and there will be a lot of value picks to cover, especially with Houston and Indiana. Let's take a look at tonight's odds and lines.
SLATE OVERVIEW
DET @ IND (-5.5) O/U: 221.5
CHI @ MIA (-5) O/U: 210
SAS @ NOR (-2) O/U: 228.5
LAL @ DAL (-2) O/U: 216.5
MIN @ UTA (-13.5) O/U: 233.5
HOU @ DEN (-13.5) O/U: 226
(odds and lines are best available US numbers and are subject to change)
Games to Target in BOLD
Games to Fade in ITALIC
INJURIES
DET Jerami Grant (quad) - PROBABLE
DET Cory Joseph (ankle) - PROBABLE
DET Dennis Smith (knee) - OUT
Both Grant ($6,900) and Joseph ($5,000) are expected to play, so they are still the top two for Detroit against an Indiana squad playing without their bigs. We'll include one additional Detroit player a bit later.
IND Domantas Sabonis (back) - OUT
IND Myles Turner (toe) - OUT
IND Jeremy Lamb (knee) - QUESTIONABLE
IND Goga Bitadze (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
IND Doug McDermott (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
The team will have JaKarr Sampson ($3,500) back, so there may be a slight shift, but I will go with Oshae Brissett ($5,200) again. He was my top value recommendation Wednesday and came up in a big way. Aside from Sampson, he may be the tallest player they have on the roster tonight, so I'd be surprised if he doesn't start.
CHI Zach LaVine (COVID-19 protocols) - OUT
Continue to roll with Coby White ($6,100) in LaVine's absence. In five starts, he's averaging 17.2 points, 6.4 assists and 3.2 rebounds and is probably my favorite play for this team.
SAS DeMar DeRozan (quad) - QUESTIONABLE
SAS Rudy Gay (back) - QUESTIONABLE
Dejounte Murray ($7,000) warrants an uptick if DeRozan is out, as does Derrick White ($5,600), who's projected to come close to 6x value in our models tonight. Both are still suitable plays if DeRozan suits up.
NOR Josh Hart (thumb) - OUT
NOR Nickeil Alexander-Walker (ankle) - OUT
NOR Steven Adams (ankle) -PROBABLE
NOR James Johnson (groin) - QUESTIONABLE
Nothing much changes for the Pels, but if Adams is somehow downgraded, Willy Hernangomez ($4,100) will emerge as a decent value option.
LAL Anthony Davis (calf) - PROBABLE
LAL Andre Drummond (toe) - PROBABLE
LAL Dennis Schroder (foot) - PROBABLE
LAL Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (back)-QUESTIONABLE
It's still too soon to play AD, but his blowup game will show up in a week or so. Dennis Schroder ($6,900) stands out on the slate as a guy with a reliable floor and a propensity for big assist numbers. He helped spur a huge run that snatched the lead away from Dallas in the first half of this two-game tilt, so expect another good outing from him as they try to even the series. Andre Drummond ($7,100) is eternally frustrating but is still in play, especially when you consider the probable absence of Kristaps Porzingis. KCP ($5,100) has an excellent attendance record, and I wouldn't be surprised if he were upgraded. Unless you've been living under a rock, you've seen how he crushed slates with value-beating numbers of late. If he were to miss, pivoting to Talen Horton-Tucker ($4,900) would be a borderline value.
DAL Kristaps Porzingis (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
DAL Maxi Kleber (back) - QUESTIONABLE
This is a spot to wait on and possibly avoid. Dallas has five big men that could potentially make an impact in a Porzingis absence, and Rick Carlisle seldom tips his hat until the shootaround. Naming a pivot here would be a pure guess.
UTA Donovan Mitchell (ankle) - OUT
Some of my favorite plays on the slate are here, so I will save most of them for later.
HOU John Wall (rest) OUT
HOU Christian Wood (ankle) - DOUBTFUL
HOU Kevin Porter (COVID-19 protocols) - OUT
HOU Eric Gordon (groin) - OUT
HOU Sterling Brown (knee) - OUT
HOU Avery Bradley (illness) - QUESTIONABLE
HOU D.J. Augustin (ankle) - OUT
Houston is where the value is at tonight! If Wood's tag holds, I like Kenyon Martin ($3,600) a lot here with his PF designation. Armoni Brooks ($4,200) will start again and probably merit around 40-50 percent rostership as one of the slate's most popular budget destinations. The best pick out of all of them might be Kelly Olynyk ($6,700), who I almost saved for later but kept him back due to his narrow center eligibility. While I won't exclude him from MME builds, there are other center options we can consider.
DEN Will Barton (hamstring) - QUESTIONABLE
DEN Monte Morris (hamstring) - OUT
Hamstrings are always tricky, so I wouldn't expect Barton to return tonight. PJ Dozier ($3,900) is likely the best pivot here, and Facundo Campazzo ($4,300) will continue to handle the point guard duties.
ELITE PLAYERS
Luka Doncic ($11,500) and Nikola Jokic ($11,400) top the slate as the only five-digit candidates Saturday. Of the two, Doncic is the more solid option based on the serious potential for blowout risk for Denver against a short-handed Houston squad. There's no question that Jokic can put together a solid two quarters and possibly beat value, but it's less likely when compared to Doncic, who will carry a bigger load if Porzingis sits as many expect. With so few top-dollar elites and a ton of available value, they are both excellent plays, but my core will probably originate elsewhere in my single-entry pursuits.
One player who will almost certainly be in that core is Zion Williamson ($9.700), who is still eminently affordable at this salary point. Throw out the game against the Magic as he only played 22 minutes in a blowout, and I'd also disregard his sub-par game against the Wizards where he uncharacteristically turned the ball over seven times. Despite these hiccups, the steady floor and potentially explosive upside are always there, and he's one of the more competitive contests on the slate tonight.
I'm not a big fan of the pace, but both Jimmy Butler ($9,400) and Bam Adebayo ($8,500) are back in action tonight, and I don't mind a sprinkle of them in bulk entry builds. Nikola Vucevic ($8,700) on the other end of this game is also OK, but spending $200 less on Bam is a bit more favorable here due to Vicevic's recent shooting deficiencies.
To round out plays at the top, Malcolm Brogdon ($8,000) stands out as the best point guard in the higher range. With a decent Over-Under and a relatively narrow spread, Brogdon should be able to carve out a great line against the Pistons, who allow an average of 41.8 FDFP per game against opposing point guards.
EXPECTED CHALK
We've already identified a lot of the value in the injury section, so the chalk and value sections will be very thin due to the size of the slate. If you haven't made calls on at least half of your lineups after reading the injury and elite sections, run it back and give it another shot.
Mike Conley, UTA ($7,000) vs. MIN
While there is some blowout risk, Conley has played supreme ball as he holds up the Utah backcourt in Donovan Mitchell's absence. He's only played two games since Mitchell's departure but has notched double-doubles in both with an average of 12.5 points, 11.5 assists and 3.5 rebounds over that span. The added dimes should be there despite the lopsided game, as Conley provided 13 assists against a short-handed Houston and 10 assists in a 14-point win against the Lakers. Since we are already here, Jordan Clarkson ($5,900) and Joe Ingles ($6,500) are also top-flite options. It's not advisable to stack Utah, but choosing two of these targets is fine.
Jakob Poeltl, SA ($6,300) @ NOR
Give Poeltl 30 minutes, and he will get the job done. He's been a beast inside with the blocked shots, with 10 swats over his past three games. He's a nightly double-double candidate who can sometimes get in foul trouble, but he should have a somewhat easy time against New Orleans. Steven Adams is dealing with an injury, and although he may draw Zion often as well, he should be able to get his share of boards.
Mason Plumlee, DET ($5,200) @ IND
Plumlee is the third and final Piston that I mentioned earlier. It's hard to get away from a guy like Plumlee, who appears to be healthy and will face the Pacers, who will be without Sabonis and Turner again tonight. Some reticence about Plumlee is reasonable, but he's played surprisingly well in Detroit's scheme, and since he's taken a seat in the last back-to-back, he'll be well-rested and prepared to slide back into the starting five. He went off for 40 FP against Dallas in his last game and could do similar damage tonight.
VALUE PLAYS
Again, lots to offer in the injury section, with Brooks, Brissett, White, Olynyk and Martin being my top five of the group. Here are a few more budget plays to consider.
PF D.J. Wilson, HOU ($3,500) @ DEN
PF JaMychal Green, DEN ($3,800) vs. HOU
PG Ricky Rubio, MIN ($5,100) @ UTA
