This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
We have a seven-game slate Saturday night, and once again, we already have several big names either ruled out or in danger of sitting. The 14-team ledger does still leave us with plenty of depth, but the mounting absences also open up quite a bit of value to choose from across different positions. Moreover, five of the seven games on the ledger have projected totals greater than 220 points, making it a night of heightened offensive expectations.
As usual, we'll proceed to break down the positional outlook below, along with possible chalk plays and some likely under-owned bargains that could help you round out your lineups with a couple of superstars.
Before delving into the slate, a reminder that FanDuel has reverted to its previous format of NOT dropping the lowest scoring in lineups after a one-year experiment with that feature. Therefore, it will be important to be prudent with each selection, as each player's total will count toward your final score.
Without further ado, let's take a more comprehensive look at Saturday's slate!
Slate Overview
Here's a closer look at the three games with the highest projected totals on Saturday's slate:
Portland Trail Blazers at Atlanta Hawks (Projected total: 238.0 points)
The fact this game leads the pack in terms of projected totals is of absolutely no surprise, even with Damian Lillard still out for Portland. The two teams combined for 237 points in an overtime affair in their one prior meeting this season, and each comes in ranked in the bottom 10 in defensive efficiency and points per game allowed. Then, Atlanta will bring a bump in pace for Portland, as they're averaging 107.7 possessions per game, the fourth-highest figure in the NBA.
Houston Rockets at Boston Celtics (Projected total: 232.5 points)
The Rockets take a back seat to no Western Conference team in scoring (118.9 PPG), and they're averaging an eye-popping 127.7 per contest over the last three. The Celtics are averaging 116.8 points per home game in their own right, and Houston will likely force them into a faster pace due to their average of 107.4 possessions per contest. The two squads combined for 221 points in their one prior meeting, and Boston is still averaging 117.8 points per game with Kemba Walker (knee) out of the lineup over the last four.
Los Angeles Lakers at Memphis Grizzlies (Projected total: 226.5 points)
The Lakers could be down LeBron James (groin) again Saturday, which likely keeps this total from being even higher. However, Los Angeles easily totaled 116 points against the Warriors sans LeBron on Thursday, and that was a game in which they took their foot off the gas due to a big lead. The Grizzlies are a similarly favorable defensive matchup, although the Lakers have notably scored 120 or less in their three victories against Memphis this season. Nevertheless, the Grizzlies allow 113.7 points per home game and play at a top-10 pace (106.5 possessions per game).
Positional Breakdown
Point guard is missing a pair of big names in Damian Lillard (groin) and Kemba Walker (knee), but otherwise, the position is in good health and sports plenty of depth, beginning with the explosive duo of Russell Westbrook and Trae Young up top.
Shooting guard is in even better shape, with only Caris LeVert's questionable status due to a hand injury a notable concern. There's an appealing duo up top here as well, with James Harden leading the way and a potentially underpriced CJ McCollum ($8.8K) as the next most expensive option as part of the game with the highest projected total of the night.
Small forward has uncertainty up top, with both LeBron James (groin) and Andrew Wiggins (back) sporting injury tags. However, Wiggins is expected to play, and even if LeBron sits, there are some underpriced Celtics in Jaylen Brown ($6.4K) and Gordon Hayward ($6.1K) that help prop up a mid-tier that also has values in Carmelo Anthony ($5.7K) and T.J. Warren ($5.4K).
Power forward will once again be missing LaMarcus Aldridge (shoulder), but the rest of the field is in good health and features a very strong top half that includes Anthony Davis, Jayson Tatum, Bam Adebayo, Domantas Sabonis and John Collins.
Finally, center will see Tristan Thompson (knee) unavailable, but luckily for the Cavs (and DFS players), Andre Drummond (calf) is expected to play and could see more run than he's been getting in Cleveland in a favorable matchup against the Pacers. Hassan Whiteside ($9.8K) and Deandre Ayton ($9K), who top the player pool, are also in particularly favorable matchups.
Notable Injury Situations to Monitor
NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written (usually late morning Eastern time), check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate.
LeBron James, LAL
James is questionable due to the groin soreness that cost him Thursday's game. Anthony Davis, who's probable due to an elbow injury, will see his usage rise exponentially if James misses again.
Anthony Davis, LAL
Davis is probable with an elbow injury and should see even more usage than usual if LeBron James (questionable-groin) is ruled out.
Damian Lillard, POR
Lillard will remain out with a groin injury. Gary Trent, Jr. and Anfernee Simons should be the primary beneficiaries of his absence once again, while the usage of CJ McCollum, Trevor Ariza, Carmelo Anthony and Hassan Whiteside will remain elevated.
LaMarcus Aldridge, SAN
Aldridge will remain out due to a shoulder injury. Lonnie Walker and Trey Lyles could once again be the primary beneficiaries.
Kelly Oubre, PHO
Oubre is out due to a torn meniscus. Mikal Bridges is set to start in his stead for the foreseeable future.
Andrew Wiggins, GSW
Wiggins is probable due to a back injury.
Kemba Walker, BOS
Walker remains out due to a knee injury. Marcus Smart should continue to be the primary beneficiary, with the remaining members of the Celtics starting five also seeing increased usage.
Andre Drummond, CLE
Drummond is listed as probable with a calf injury. With Tristan Thompson (knee) already ruled out, Drummond could be in for extra run.
Tristan Thompson, CLE
Thompson will not play due to a knee contusion. His absence could lead to extra minutes for Larry Nance and Ante Zizic behind Andre Drummond (calf).
Caris LeVert, BKN
LeVert is questionable due to a hand injury. Garrett Temple and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot could be the primary beneficiaries if LeVert misses.
Jordan Poole, GSW
Poole is questionable due to an ankle sprain.
Cameron Johnson, PHO
Johnson is questionable with an upper body injury sustained in Friday's game.
Dewayne Dedmon, ATL
Dedmon will be out due to an elbow injury.
DeAndre' Bembry, ATL
Bembry will remain out due to an abdomen injury.
Tyler Herro, MIA
Herro is likely to remain out due to a foot injury.
Meyers Leonard, MIA
Leonard is likely to remain out due to an ankle injury.
Alfonzo McKinnie, CLE
McKinnie is likely to remain out with a heel injury.
Edmond Sumner, IND
Sumner is questionable due to a hip injury.
Danny Green, LAL
Green is doubtful due to a hip injury.
Eric Gordon, HOU
Gordon is questionable due to a knee injury.
Notable Longer-Term Injuries/Absences: Clint Capela, ATL; Stephen Curry, GSW; Klay Thompson, GSW; Jusuf Nurkic, POR; Zach Collins, POR; Justise Winslow, MEM; Jaren Jackson, MEM; Brandon Clarke, MEM; Grayson Allen, MEM; Dante Exum, CLE; Skal Labissiere, ATL; Al-Farouq Aminu, ORL; Ky Bowman, GSW
Elite Players
We have five players sporting five-figure salaries Saturday, with James Harden ($11.2K), Anthony Davis ($10.7K), Russell Westbrook ($10.6K), LeBron James ($10.4K) and Trae Young ($10K) fitting the bill. Of that group, James' status is the only one that's truly up in the air, as Davis is expected to continue playing through his elbow injury.
Davis will be especially valuable if James sits, and both Westbrook and Harden should certainly be worth their salaries in what figures to be a wire-to-wire battle against the Celtics. Young draws a premium matchup against the Trail Blazers as well and has been providing eye-popping returns, even for a $10k salary. Additionally, outside the $10K range, Hassan Whiteside ($9.6K), Jayson Tatum ($9.2K), CJ McCollum ($8.8K) and Devin Booker ($7.4K) particularly stand out as players that could offer elite-level production due to usage expectations/matchup.
Expected Chalk
There are a couple of different sources of potential chalk Saturday, with injuries certainly being one of them. I'll cover the value plays likely to be popular due to absences elsewhere on their squads in the next section, but as far as star players looking at elevated ownership, Jayson Tatum, Andre Drummond (calf), Anthony Davis (especially if LeBron James sits), CJ McCollum, Hassan Whiteside and DeMar DeRozan should be especially popular due to the expected usage bumps they'll continue to see with star teammates out of action.
As customary, I've also put together a specific list of sub-$6K value plays that should find themselves in plenty of lineups – some due to injury situations on their respective teams -- and have included those below the next section.
Key and Likely Underowned Values
Josh Jackson, MEM vs. LAL ($4,200)
Jackson should continue seeing steady run Saturday in the absence of Jaren Jackson (knee) and Brandon Clarke (quadriceps), a pair of absences that's helped net him at least 23 minutes in four straight games. The 2017 fourth overall pick has generally made good use of his opportunities since joining the Grizzlies, scoring over 20 FanDuel points in five of 12 games, including four times in his last five contests. Jackson is shooting an improved 47.8 percent, including 36.8 percent from three-point range, over that latter stretch, and even though the Lakers make for a tough matchup statistically, Jackson's locked-in minutes, reasonable price and the expected pace of the contest all make him worth considering, especially for larger-field contests.
Rudy Gay, SA vs. ORL ($4,000)
Gay continues to roll along in his second-unit role on a Spurs team that's enjoyed remarkably good health this season, but that will once again be missing a key component in LaMarcus Aldridge (shoulder) on Saturday. Gay has scored 27.2 and 20.0 FanDuel points over his last two games, respectively, with the latter contest a game Aldridge missed. That contest also marked Gay's first 20-minute-plus allotment since Feb. 8, and it's worth noting Gay is now sporting a 23.1 percent usage rate and averaging 1.07 FanDuel points per minute with Aldridge off the floor this season. The Magic also comes in allowing the fourth-highest three-point percentage (38.8) to power forwards, another factor that could help Gay to pay off his very modest price.
Dario Saric, PHO vs. GSW ($3,800)
Saric's price is worthy of a double take, considering he's currently back in the starting five at power forward. However, his inconsistency serves to keep his salary so reasonable, making him worthy of consideration as a large-field tournament pivot in particular Saturday in a very favorable matchup. Saric has actually generated respectable tallies of 18.6 and 20.3 FanDuel points in two of his last three games, respectively, and his best DFS performance this season (48.3 FanDuel points) came against this very same Warriors squad back on Oct. 30. Saric also compiled a solid 23.0 FanDuel points across 22 minutes in his one other meeting against them Dec. 27, and Golden State comes in allowing a bottom-10 offensive efficiency rating (25.8) to power forwards, along with the third-highest three-point shooting success rate (39.0 percent) to fours.
Other likely higher-owned value plays to consider: Malcolm Brogdon, IND ($5,900); Collin Sexton, CLE ($5,800); Damion Lee, GSW ($5,800); Carmelo Anthony, POR ($5,700); Goran Dragic, MIA ($5,600); Draymond Green, GSW ($5,600); Markelle Fultz, ORL ($5,500); T.J. Warren, IND ($5,400); Larry Nance, CLE ($5,300); Mikal Bridges, PHO ($5,100); Terrence Ross, ORL ($4,900); Victor Oladipo, IND ($4,800); Garrett Temple, BKN ($4,400); Kelly Olynyk, MIA ($4,400); Eric Paschall, GSW ($4,300); De'Andre Hunter, ATL ($4,300); Jeff Teague, ATL ($4,000); Kyle Kuzma, LAL ($4,200); Bruno Fernando, ATL ($3,700)
