Jack Leiter

There was no analytical reason to remain optimistic with Leiter after his consistently poor 2022 season, when his last name and draft pedigree were doing all the heavy lifting with his prospect value. After a second poor season at Double-A, there remains little to get excited about, although he did at least have multi-start stretches of success in his age-23 season. Leiter had a strong 31.3 percent strikeout rate, but his walk rate was over 13 percent for the second year in a row. The best stretch of Leiter's pro career was a 40.1-inning run with a 2.68 ERA and 1.09 WHIP from early-May through mid-June. However, after turning in two abysmal starts in the middle of the season, Leiter was placed on the developmental list for seven weeks as he worked on his mechanics. He excelled in four appearances (16.1 innings) at Double-A after returning late in the year before getting lit up in his lone Triple-A start to close the season. The consistent factor in Leiter's success or failure is his walk rate. He at least showed flashes of starter-level command last season, but he turns 24 in April and has a career 1.51 WHIP in 177.2 innings.

If Leiter had a different last name and draft pedigree, he would be a free agent in many dynasty leagues. He wasn't bad at everything, but he also wasn't good at anything in his 92.2-inning pro debut at Double-A. His 10.6 K/9 ranked 26th among Double-A pitchers with 70-plus innings, but it was an elevated mark because he was walking so many batters (5.4 BB/9), and therefore getting more opportunities per inning to strike hitters out. In a more useful statistic (K%), Leiter ranked 43rd among that same subset, and his 13.2 BB% was the 13th-worst mark among Double-A starters. There isn't a single stretch in Leiter's season where we can cherry-pick a run of success, and he was supposed to be an advanced starter who could move quickly through the minors. Given his pedigree, Leiter will be given more opportunities to succeed than the average minor-leaguer, but any positivity going forward is just a call-back to his impressive college resume at Vanderbilt.

As with many college pitchers, Leiter did not pitch after getting drafted second-overall by the Rangers and signing for the richest bonus ($7.922 million) in the class. Well-known for his bloodlines (father Al pitched in the majors for 19 years) and dominance at Vanderbilt, Leiter could be the first starting pitcher from this class to reach the majors. Statistically, none of his peers can touch him. The draft-eligible sophomore had a 2.13 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 179:45 K:BB in 110 innings (18 starts). He had a 15-strikeout game during the College World Series, which is the second-most strikeouts of all time from an SEC pitcher in a CWS game. It all starts with his 70-grade fastball, which sits in the low-to-mid-90s but plays well above that velocity thanks to excellent rising action and maximum extension from a 6-foot-1 frame. He throws a curveball, slider and changeup, but none of his offspeed pitches project to be in the same class as his fastball, which limits his realistic upside. Pitchability and competitiveness are strong traits for Leiter, so he is a decent bet to get the most out of his tools, but there is not much projection remaining. He is the rare pitching prospect who could require fewer than 20 starts in the minors before making his big-league debut.