This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
After many twists and turns, the Warriors and Celtics have navigated their way to the NBA Finals. Although the sportsbooks currently have the Warriors as a solid favorite, the phrase 'defense wins championships' doesn't just apply to football, and Boston has a clear advantage in that department.
The Warriors have the home advantage to begin the series, and the team has made Chase Arena a very difficult spot to steal a win on the road. The Celtics need to grab at least one win out West to stay in the series. For those new to single-game contests, here's a short primer.
For FanDuel single-game contests, participants are given five positions to fill. While two of them are normal (UTIL) spots, the remaining three allow for a multiplier to be given to the selected player. There are three tiers:
MVP - 2x
STAR- 1.5x
PRO - 1.2x
The common mistake made in this format is a lack of emphasis on the 2x player value and the over-valuing of the 1.2x multiplier. In reality, adding .2x to a player is not that significant, while picking the wrong 2x player will likely kill your chances of cashing. You can survive most misses at 1.2x and even 1.5x, but getting the 2x spot correctly is essential.
Unlike other sites, the salaries are not weighed according to the slot selected. All of FanDuel's salaries are static, meaning that no matter where you put a player, their value remains the same. This eliminates the challenges of CPTN format games where you must consider the overall value of the multiplied value as you fill a slew of utility spots. Instead, FanDuel's single-game contests are mostly about picking the top three scorers and rounding out the roster with two value utility players, all while staying under the salary cap.
INJURIES
BOS Robert Williams (knee) - QUESTIONABLE
GSW Otto Porter (foot) - QUESTIONABLE
GSW Gary Payton (elbow) -QUESTIONABLE
GSW Andre Iguodala (back) - QUESTIONABLE
I expect all of these tags to clear before lock. All of the players have gone through full practices this week, and although Golden State has been especially coy about Porter's status, it looks like he will return for Game 1. Robert Williams' lingering injury is the most concerning on the list, as the Celtics had a quicker turnaround for the Finals, and it's obvious that his knee slows him down.
MULTIPLIER CANDIDATES
Jayson Tatum ($16,000) - MVP
Stephen Curry ($15,500) - STAR, MVP
Jaylen Brown ($14,000) - STAR, PRO
Al Horford ($12,500) - STAR, PRO
Andrew Wiggins ($13,000) - PRO
Marcus Smart ($12,000) - PRO, STAR
Tatum has been the correct MVP pick for most of the playoffs, and there's no reason to think he'll falter in this series. In two games against Golden State, Tatum averaged 46.5 FDFP, with a differential of only 3.2 FDFP between those contests. Aside from a couple of hiccups down the stretch, Tatum has tread this point level frequently, with numbers exceeding 50 on more than one occasion. He'll have to contend with Draymond Green ($11,000), but Tatum will succeed regardless of who covers him.
Of course, Steph has to be considered here, although it's somewhat of a risk to grant him a 2x multiplier. Looking back to the days of the dynasty with Durant and Curry at the helm, it's hard to forget how Curry would drain three after three, sucking the soul out of the opponent. That's great in real-world scenarios, but you don't get extra fantasy points for shooting a three from the logo. When you roster Curry, you're hoping his shooting stroke is up to snuff, and you can bet that he'll burn you if you ignore him entirely. I just think Tatum is a more reliable play, but Curry is still quite viable for the star slot.
I really like Al Horford's price here, although some might think it's a little high. Pivoting between Horford and Andrew Wiggins is where you'll likely find yourself, and when you factor in Otto Porter's return and Robert Williams' compromising injury, it's advantage Porter for me.
We round out the multipliers with Brown and Smart, although they are always difficult to pinpoint. A lot will depend on where they line up against the Warriors. I imagine Wiggins will probably take on Brown, and his numbers against the Warriors reflect a so-so job in containing him, restricting him to an average of 34.5 FDFP over two contests. Meanwhile, Smart turned in two superb performances against the Warriors in the regular season, with 20/4/8 and 19/6/8 lines in the two games. Although Smart and Brown make for an interesting mix-and-match candidate, Smart has the clear advantage due to his lower price and better results against Golden State.
UTILITY CANDIDATES
Grant Williams ($8,000)
Otto Porter ($7,500) or Jonathan Kuminga ($8,500) if Porter is out
Kevon Looney ($10,000)
Gary Payton ($6,000)
I began with Porter and Grant Williams because they will be almost necessary if you stack Tatum, Curry and another player in the multiplier. Going with Smart in the final spot over someone like Horford will provide you a little more room, in which case you could go after someone like Looney, who set up very well opposite Boston during the regular season. The gap between good multipliers and utility players is filled with big names like Green, Poole and Thompson, but their inflated prices make them largely unusable if you're using five-figure guys in all of the multiplier spots. Of course, their 'unusability' makes them just dandy for a contrarian swing in a few contests.
Porter is very intriguing tonight, and I hope he plays because it would help us fade Kuminga with a little more confidence. Steve Kerr is no dummy, though. It doesn't take much time to see the potential in Kuminga, and Kerr won't hesitate to go with the youngster if Porter struggles out of the gate.
The big salary-saver tonight is Gary Payton, who is expected to return to action after logging full practices this week. Using Payton could solve all of your salary issues, but it's anyone's guess how many minutes he will log coming off the elbow injury. Payton averaged 7.0 points, 3.5 rebounds and 1.5 assists over the six playoff games before the injury, so he's definitely a risky call to make. I would experiment with him, however. For example, with a Tatum/Curry//Horford multiplier stack, using Gordon would give you $10,000 for the final spot, allowing for guys like Looney or Robert Williams. It's essential to analyze the potential cost-benefit of going this low to allow for a better UTIL companion. For my money, I think Williams or Looney would be a better spot than Williams or Porter.
