This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
WAS vs. PHI (-8), O/U: 230.5
ATL vs. NY (-2), O/U: 212.5
MEM vs. UTA (-8.5), O/U: 218.5
The WAS-PHI matchup is clearly the best spot on the slate tonight. Not only does it feature the highest total by a significant margin, but the salaries on the Sixers' side are much too cheap. DraftKings has been slow to adjust after a chaotic finish to the regular season that saw most teams limit the minutes of key players. The playoffs are completely different, and that applies to both projected minutes and expected usage. Ben Simmons ($7,300) and Tobias Harris ($7,000) stand out the most.
The Knicks and Hawks played a thriller on Sunday, and just looking at the spreads tonight, the matchup may be the only one on the slate that stays competitive. Despite its low total, there are appealing options on both sides.
Donovan Mitchell will make his long-awaited return tonight, and the Jazz will be desperate for a win after the Grizzlies pulled off the upset in Game 1.
Injuries to Monitor
Donovan Mitchell (ankle): WILL PLAY
Mitchell was expected to play in Game 1 on Sunday but ultimately sat out. Tonight will mark his first action since April 16th, and because it was a lower-body injury, it's reasonable to expect he's going to be on a minutes restriction. Joe Ingles will likely drop back to the bench.
Nerlens Noel (ankle): QUESTIONABLE
Noel sprained his ankle in the fourth quarter of Sunday's game and is listed as questionable for tonight. He's expected to play, but if he were to miss, Taj Gibson would likely start at center.
Elite Players
Guard:
Russell Westbrook ($11,400)
Westbrook has finally cooled off a bit as he's failed to reach 55 DK points in three consecutive games. On the positive side, his salary has dropped significantly after it hit a season-high of $13,100 on May 6th. The matchup against the Sixers is far from ideal. Ben Simmons and Danny Green are elite defenders; their size alone makes it tougher for Russ to score at the rim and grab rebounds. That being said, he still projects for the highest amount of raw fantasy points on the slate.
Center:
Joel Embiid ($10,100)
Embiid is coming off an underwhelming 41.5 DK points in Sunday's win. Most concerning was the fact that he only played 30 minutes despite the game being close throughout. There is much better value on the Sixers tonight, and I'd prefer to get my exposure there, but Embiid won't be as popular, and that increases his appeal for tournaments as we know he has the upside to be the slate's highest scorer, even in limited minutes.
PF/C:
Julius Randle ($9,400)
Randle disappointed in Game 1, as he shot just 6-23 from the field on his way to a double-double and 37 DK points. The 23 shot attempts and 12 rebounds were encouraging, but I wouldn't expect the usage to be as high as we saw in the regular season going forward. Derrick Rose, RJ Barrett and even Alec Burks will see a lot of the ball and handle a considerable amount of the play-making. It feels like $9,400 is a bit steep tonight, especially considering the good value options available in the mid-range.
SG/SF:
Bradley Beal ($8,800)
Beal posted a 33/10/6 line on his way to 55.5 DK points in Game 1. He played 41 minutes and took 23 shots, and I'd expect similar numbers tonight if the game stays close. He's seen a slight drop in salary as well. The WAS-PHI matchup will be a popular target tonight, and it makes a lot of sense to save some salary and pivot to Beal over Westbrook. I think he outscores this whole range of elite players more often than the salaries would indicate.
Expected Chalk
Ben Simmons ($7,300) and Tobias Harris ($7,000)
Simmons grabbed 15 rebounds and dished out 15 assists as he put up 51.75 DK points in Game 1 on Sunday. Harris scored 37 real points on 29 shot attempts that helped him to 51.5 DK points. Both played high-30s minutes. The matchup against the Wizards is an ideal spot, and DraftKings hasn't yet adjusted their salaries to reflect the projected run and usage they're going to see in the playoffs. As things stand, I'd expect them to be the chalkiest two players on the slate.
Value Picks
Trae Young ($8,500)
Young is coming off a 32/7/10 line on his way to 56.75 DK points in game 1. It's surprising to see his salary under 9K. I'd expect the discount makes him a relatively popular option tonight.
Mike Conley ($6,700)
Conley was the play of the slate on Sunday when he scored 52 DK points as the Jazz lost Game 1 to the Grizzlies. He could've done even better had he not dealt with foul trouble or shot 6-18 from the field. The return of Donovan Mitchell will sap some of the usage but also some of the popularity, and the salary is still quite affordable.
Dillon Brooks ($6,300)
The Grizzlies are on a nice little run, and Brooks has arguably been their best player of late. He's put up 43+ DK points in three of his last five games and has taken at least 20 shots in six of his last seven. He's seeing upwards of 40 minutes per night, and the salary is too cheap for that type of run and usage.
Derrick Rose ($5,900)
Elfrid Payton continues to start at point guard, but he played just eight minutes in Game 1 while Rose saw 38 minutes off the bench. He has considerable upside for an affordable salary, and the matchup against the Hawks is favorable, as Trae Young isn't known for his defense.
Alec Burks ($4,500)
Burks was the Knicks' best player in Game 1. He scored 27 real points in 26 minutes on his way to 37.75 DK points. He sees the most usage of all the players on the slate with salaries under $5,000, and there isn't much else for appealing cheap value tonight.
Danny Green ($4,000)
The Sixers are in the best spot on the slate, and $4,000 is very affordable for a player who's going to see 30+ minutes in a close game. He's topped 20 DK points in six of his last 10 games despite playing limited minutes as the regular reason wound down.
