This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Tonight's slate is a little light on elite talent, but there are plenty of mid-range targets and a plentitude of excellent backcourt players to choose from. Let's dive in.
SLATE OVERVIEW
PHI (-10.5) vs. DET, O/U 212.5
ATL (-4.5) vs. NY, O/U: 232.5
MIA (-10) vs. CHA, O/U: 211.5
DEN (-2.5) @ DAL, O/U: 218
OKC (-2) vs. UTA, O/U: 217.5
NO (-1.5) @ SAC, O/U: 232.5
I'll discuss the Pelicans in a minute, but this matchup is the most intriguing game on the slate, and I'm inclined to take some chances there. Jimmy Butler's status muddies the waters in the CHA/MIA game, but I managed to find targets in every game.
INJURY SITUATIONS TO MONITOR
There are a lot of ongoing injury situations that won't garner a mention in this section, especially in Philly. RotoWire has you covered with player notes on DraftKings if you need a refresher on your options in these spots.
Jimmy Butler (toe) QUESTIONABLE
It's reported that Butler is feeling better, but he's still holding on to an injury designation. If he fails to make the court, more output should be coming Duncan Robinson's ($6,000) way. If Butler doesn't go, Robinson is a chalk pick for me.
Bruce Brown (ankle) QUESTIONABLE
Production will flow to Brandon Knight ($4,900) if Brown can't go tonight.
ELITE PLAYERS
Luka Doncic, DAL ($11,000) vs. DEN
Doncic hasn't had the best success against the Nuggets, averaging only 39 DKFP over two games this season. A look at his recent production shows Doncic is chugging along as usual, with totals of 63 and 66 DKFP in his past two contests. Neither of these Denver matchups happened recently, so I'd be inclined to favor recent production as the better metric tonight.
Trae Young, ATL ($10,400) vs. NY
I have a hunch that Young's ownership won't be high with a wealth of guard action at cheaper prices tonight, but I have no problem giving him a run against the Knicks. He's averaged a little under 70 DKFP across two matchups against New York, and the Knicks have let a wide assortment of guards run all over them in recent games, including Shabazz Napier and Chris Paul.
Bam Adebayo, MIA ($9,000) vs. CHA
If you're looking foe safe floor at center, look no further than Adebayo, who rarely dips below value and always has a chance to exceed it by a mile. As per usual, the Hornets still rank dead-last in total rebounding percentage, and Adebayo took Charlotte to task with 46.8 DKFP score in their last matchup.
Also consider: John Collins, ATL ($9,100) vs. NY
EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS
Jrue Holiday, NO ($8,200) @ SAC
While my instincts want me to be all over the Pelicans tonight, Holiday emerges as the primary guy to trust. The Pelicans barely squeaked out a win in their last matchup, but New Orleans now has Zion Williamson ($7,800) in the fold to face the Kings. The Pelicans' power source is spread among four players that are all within $400 of each other tonight, and I don't think I can fault any of them, but the Kings struggle the most against the off-guard. They are considerably tougher against point guards, so despite his good number against the Kings in his last game, I'd limit my exposure to Lonzo Ball ($7,900) and would also temper my expectations for Brandon Ingram ($8,000) a bit. Holiday is the best team option in my opinion, especially for cash.
De'Aaron Fox, SAC ($7,800) vs. NO
While we're on this game, it bears mentioning that the Pelicans have struggled mightily against opposing point guards recently, yielding huge totals to guys like D'Angelo Russell (twice), Luka Doncic and LeBron James. At this price, we're finally seeing totals we can trust from Fox, who's fallen a bit below expectations for most of the season. His recent run of games since a one-game absence has been excellent, averaging 24 points, 5.8 assists and 3.7 rebounds over six games. He also averaged 50 percent from the floor during that period.
Elfrid Payton, NY ($6,500) @ ATL
I know, a lot of guards. I promise I'll get off them after this pick. Simply put, Payton is cheap. I'm a bit surprised to find him at such a low price, and he's in a very good spot against the Hawks, who force a fast pace to go along with a weak backcourt defense. All that spells good news for Payton, who was able to reach 5x value at this price in five of his last 10 games.
Danilo Gallinari, OKC ($5,900) vs. UTA
Gallinari has hovered right around 6k for the past two weeks, and if we look at his sample size, he's hit 5x value in four of his last 10 games, and has seen steady production from beyond the arc during that span. If he gets hot from long range, he can start to rack up points quickly, and he also had a good bit of success against the Jazz in their lone matchup (35 DKFP).
Also consider: Julius Randle, NY ($7,800) @ ATL
VALUE PLAYS
Josh Richardson, PHI ($5,200) vs. DET
Richardson is scheduled to be back after missing three games due to a concussion. Slowly but surely, the Sixers are getting their starters back, and this game could be a soft spot where Richardson could get hot early. The Sixers really struggled at the two in his absence, leaving Shake Milton to carry the load in the backcourt, so his return should have a big impact. He was in a bit of a slump prior to going down, but I'll take a Philly starter at this cheap price.
Harrison Barnes, SAC ($5,000) vs. NO
Barnes is a big reason why the Kings remain competitive, as he's been incredibly solid over the past several games. His 10-game average of 15.8 points, 4.2 rebounds and 3.2 assists is great evidence of his multi-category contribution, and he's done all this despite lukewarm shooting. We could see considerably more output if he rights the ship in that department.
Gary Harris, DEN ($4,600) @ DAL
For the price, Harris' numbers for the Nuggets are excellent in the short term. In his past three games, he's been one of the most consistent players for Denver, averaging 15.7 points, 3.3 rebounds and 1.7 assists. These numbers come out to around 30 DKFP per game, which crushes value at $4,600.
