This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
We get a little bit of everything in this nine-game slate, but I believe there are some obvious places to go thanks to a number of injury situations.
SLATE OVERVIEW
PHI (-7.5) @ CLE, O/U: 216.5
BKN (-2) @ WAS, O/U: 234
NY (-1.5) @ CHA, O/U: 207.5
MIA (-10) vs. MIN, O/U: 232.5
ORL (-2) @ ATL, O/U: 229
HOU (-11) vs. MEM, O/U: 237
DAL (-4.5) @ SA, O/U: 232.5
LAC (-6.5) @ PHO, O/U: 231.5
UTA (-4.5) vs. BOS, O/U: 218.5
INJURY SITUATIONS TO MONITOR
Ben Simmons (back) OUT
Shake Milton ($4,500) looks like he's got a starting gig for at least a week and possibly longer. I expected a little bit more from Josh Richardson ($5,200) in Simmons' absence, but he did show 5x value against the Hawks, so I still think he's a reasonable consideration.
Jimmy Butler (personal) QUESTIONABLE
Bam Adebayo (face) QUESTIONABLE
Tyler Herro (foot) OUT
Although chances are better that we'll see Butler tonight, his potential absence is still worth monitoring. Big boosts from Derrick Jones ($4,500) would be in store if he misses. I think Adebayo will suit up despite getting stitches near his eye in Monday's game, so no pivots there. Goran Dragic ($6,300) and Kendrick Nunn ($6,100) should continue enjoying stuffed stat lines while Herro heals.
LaMarcus Aldridge (shoulder) OUT
Jakob Poeltl ($3,200) should be in line for the start here and is certainly an excellent value play, but I would be more inclined to give a bit of a bump to the rest of the starters, especially DeMar DeRozan ($7,000) and Trey Lyles ($3,800).
Kemba Walker (knee) OUT
As we look at production in the last game, it appears that Jayson Tatum ($8,800) and Jaylen Brown ($6,700) fared better than Marcus Smart ($6,200) and Gordon Hayward ($7,400), but they face a stiffer test tonight on a back-to-back. I still like Smart the best in relation to his price point.
Kelly Oubre (knee) OUT
The pivots here are a little tougher to gauge, but I would expect production to flow in Dario Saric's ($3,200) direction. Mikal Bridges ($4,400) also gets a lot more involved when Oubre is out.
Brandon Clarke (quad) OUT
Bad news for the Grizzlies, and bad news for DFS and seasonal players who were hoping to play Clarke in place of the injured Jaren Jackson. Memphis will now turn to Josh Jackson ($4,500), but Gorgui Dieng ($5,200) will also be a key component in the mix.
ELITE PLAYERS
James Harden, HOU ($11,300) vs. MEM
It's no surprise that the Rockets are heavily favored in their second straight game at home against the Grizzlies, who are watching their frontcourt players drop like flies. It's hard to beat Harden's two-game DKFP average of 67.5 points against Memphis, and you'd be hard-pressed to find game history like that anywhere on this slate.
Joel Embiid, PHI ($10,500) @ CLE
Against a stronger team, I'd expect Embiid's output to wilt in Ben Simmons' absence, but against Cleveland, I think the game is ripe for a takeover with Embiid leading the charge. His two-game average against the Cavs doesn't meet value (43 DKFP) but this game script is entirely different without Simmons, and the big man is averaging a whopping 63 DKFP over his past three games.
Luka Doncic, DAL ($10,300) @ SA
With LaMarcus Aldridge sidelined, I think you have to believe both Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis ($8,300) will excel on Wednesday. Doncic sports a 64.6 DKFP average over two games against the Spurs, and unless this becomes a blowout, we have no reason to doubt Doncic's ability to post another huge number.
Bradley Beal, WAS ($9,700) vs. BKN
Beal laid down the hammer with 56.5 DKFP against the Nets in their last matchup, and after a few sub-par games by Beal's standards, he's back to his normal production. Over the last three games he's averaged a ridiculous 44.7 points per game to go along with 3.3 rebounds and 2.7 assists. A guy like Beal is entirely dependent on this point totals, as his ancillary numbers aren't going to do him any favors, so you carry a lot more risk here. With that in mind, he's an excellent tournament target for me.
EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS
Devin Booker, PHO ($7,900) vs. LAC
We've seen Booker's price this low before, as this is often his floor on DraftKings after a sub-par game. He put up 49 against the Clippers in their last matchup, and he achieved that in a game where Kawhi Leonard was an active participant. Booker only needs 40 DKFP to beat value here, and he's exceeded that threshold in six of his last 10 games.
Caris LeVert, BKN ($7,500) @ WAS
Here I am again, back with LeVert. Even I will confess that his price is starting to get a bit high and the Wizards have really started to turn things around defensively, but I seriously doubt LeVert will hurt you too much. His three-game average is still hovering around 40 DKFP, and that equals a pretty decent $187 per DKFP.
Ricky Rubio, PHO ($6,900) vs. LAC
Rubio's recent numbers have been superb, with an average of 48.8 DKFP over his past three games. We should discount his game history against the Clippers as he barely played 24 minutes in that matchup, and he's averaging roughly 32 minutes per game over the past week.
Robert Covington, HOU ($6,200) vs. MEM
I expect Covington to continue thriving in Houston's new system, and the small-ball setup gets a bit of a reprieve against Memphis with both Jaren Jackson and Brandon Clarke sidelined. He's one of the best defensive players in the league, and while that doesn't always translate to fantasy success, his usage is high enough to generate excellent numbers. He's now beaten 5x value in five straight games.
VALUE PLAYS
The best values on the slate exist above in our injury pivots, and of that group, I really favor Lyles, DeRozan, Nunn and Bridges. Here are two more budget selections to choose from today.
PJ Washington, CHA ($5,000) vs. NY
I don't like Washington as much as some other centers on the slate, but he's averaging a value-beating 28.4 DKFP over two games against the Knicks. While he faces stiff competition from Cody Zeller ($4,300) at the position, Washington has fared much better against New York, so I'm inclined to give him the nod.
De'Andre Hunter, ATL ($4,900) vs. ORL
I often like to make a dart throw against the injury tags on DraftKings to try and find some low ownership. Hunter fits the bill as I believe he'll play despite the ankle tweak. Cam Reddish didn't play well enough to steal Hunter's gig, and Hunter's enjoyed recent outings with 30, 33 and 59 DKFP totals, all of which beat 5x value at this price.
