This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
DraftKings is tackling Wednesday's massive slate in an interesting way. You can either look at all 11 games with a 7 PM ET start time or fade the HOU/CHA game entirely and play with a 10-game slate instead. We're going to go with the 7 PM start time because that's where the GPPs and Cash games are, so we're going to have to look at James Harden's ($12,200) overall value once again.
Harden's streak of 30-point games was snapped on Monday, which wasn't a huge surprise considering his recent neck injury. The end of the streak presents us with an interesting meta-game question – does the end of the streak take pressure off the Beard? Without trying to hit that mark every night, does he relax and really cut loose? Or, we could theorize that the exact opposite occurs, and we see the Rockets settle into a more balanced rhythm that favors other playmakers. Whether it's through drilling threes or dishing out assists, Harden will still have great totals, but can we depend on a total worth $12.2K against the Hornets tonight?
I'm going to go with 'no'. If I'm paying that kind of price tonight, I think centering my roster around LeBron James ($12,100) against the Pelicans is a more prudent play overall. The King is hosting a New Orleans team that took the Lakers by surprise two games ago with a 13-point victory, and I don't think LeBron will allow that to happen again. After dropping a game to Memphis on Monday, they need every win they can get. Houston isn't under that kind of pressure, and the Hornets are a markedly better defensive opponent. The prices of James and Harden are so similar, you'll still have to dig deep to afford them, so regardless of which way you decide to go, your build process will be remarkably similar.
GAMES I LIKE: Along with HOU/CHA, Vegas is telling us that WAS/BRO, MIN/ATL and NO/LAL will give us the best value. I like the shoot-em-up potential of the Nets-Wizards matchup the best, and you'll see a lot of them below
GAMES I'LL FADE: I'll only a do a little cherry-picking with the CHI/MEM game, and the IND/DAL game may be a contest that I will avoid altogether.
Although Giannis Antetokounmpo has a questionable tag, he is probable to play tonight. Here are a few other injury scenarios to monitor. Ongoing injuries will not be mentioned.
Domantas Sabonis (ankle) OUT: You can tackle this spot in a couple of different ways. Myles Turner ($6,300) has shed his injury designation and should see a bump, but Kyle O'Quinn ($4,400) will come in with the second unit and play a considerable number of minutes.
Jeff Teague (migraine) QUESTIONABLE: Pivot to Tyus Jones ($4,500) if Teague sits, and Derrick Rose ($5,500) would be a great value play against the Hawks as well.
MEMPHIS: Ivan Rabb (heel) DOUBTFUL, Avery Bradley (knee, ankle) PROBABLE: Rabb has started eight consecutive games, and Bradley has also found his way into the starting lineup, so we're bound to see some different looks for the Grizzlies tonight. I expect Jonas Valanciunas ($7,400) to continue his hot streak, and Joakim Noah ($4,800) could end up sliding in a bit more often as well.
I'll now go position-by-position, with an aim to provide one spend-up option, a mid-range target and a low-cost value play for each spot.
GUARDS
D'Angelo Russell, BKN vs. WAS ($8,700): Bradley Beal ($8,900) should also light this game up, and you could do a lot worse than stacking them into your lineup. If you can only afford one, I like Russell better against the weak Wizards D. His history against Washington is a bit up-and-down, but he's humming along with a 47 DKFP average over the last three games, and the pace of this game will be lightning-fast.
Brandon Ingram, LAL vs. NO ($6,400): Ingram took over the Memphis game by drilling shots early and often as the rest of the team played catch-up. That's been the tale of the tape for Ingram since the break, as he's living behind the shadow of Kyle Kuzma no longer. His three-game tear might not sustain itself if the Lakers feel like they need a boost elsewhere to clear the hurdle against the Pelicans, but I think it's sensible to hang on to what's working.
Tomas Satoransky, WAS at BKN ($5,400): I like this spot for Satoransky, as I think he'll experience slightly lower ownership after a so-so game against the Pacers. One stat that wasn't mediocre at all was the six steals he swiped against Indiana, and he's averaged 3.5 steals over the last three games. Wednesday's game will be night-and-day in terms of pace, and a better shooting night should put the guard solidly in the 30-DKFP range.
Additonal guards to consider: Donovan Mitchell, UTA vs. LAC ($8,200), Ricky Rubio, UTA vs, LAC ($6,000), Reggie Bullock, LAL vs. NO ($4,300)
FORWARDS
Anthony Davis, NO at LAL ($7,200): Davis was rested for the Lakers game last week, and although he's on a minutes restriction for the remainder of the season, this is a sneaky value play that I'll employ tonight. It shouldn't take you too long to draw out a list of reasons for why I like this spot – is it an early try-out for the Lakers? A classic tangle between the league's two best players? For $7,200, the intrigue is too hard to pass up.
Marvin Bagley III, SAC vs. MIL ($6,700): Bagley is finally showing up in Sacramento's starting lineup, and all I can say is – it's about time! After a slow start to his rookie season, Bagley has come on strong and flirted with a 50 DKFP average over his past three games. Despite the Bucks' excellent record, they aren't particularly strong against the four spot, and though you won't be able to afford everyone at this level, Bagley is becoming almost Khris Middleton-like with his reliable floor.
Jae Crowder, UTA vs. LAC ($4,100): I've ended up with more picks in this game than I expected initially. While the O/U isn't especially attractive, I think the contest is full of contrarian options. Crowder has scored 20 and 22 points over the last two games, and he racked up 23 against the Clippers in their previous meeting. Without Tobias Harris to provide resistance, Crowder's dynamic presence should give the Clippers fits as he comes off the bench in relief.
Additional forwards to consider: DeMar DeRozan, SA vs. DET ($8,100), Kyle Kuzma, LAL vs. NO ($6,200), Jeremy Lamb, CHA vs. HOU ($5,300)
CENTERS
Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN at ATL ($10,600): You could make an argument against Towns by saying that you could find similar production for less money, but against Atlanta, this might not be the case. Towns erupted for 70 DKFP in his last meeting against the Hawks, and he's coming off a similar 72 DKFP showing against the Kings two days ago. After his recent car accident, Towns feels lucky to be alive, and an event the like that can bring about intangibles that are hard to measure. On a night where you've got a lot of attractive spend-up spots, you might run out of cash by the time you get to Towns, but I'll be shuffling around to grab him in a couple of lineups.
Thomas Bryant, WAS at BKN ($4,600): I'm a fan of Cousins and Valanciunas in the mid-range, but if you've spent up elsewhere, I think Bryant could be in for another big game against the Nets after racking up 55 DKFP against the Pacers on Monday. As usual, starting your big men against the Nets is always a favorable proposition, and with the apparent breakneck pace of this game, I think Bryant is worth the risk.
Dwight Powell, DAL vs. IND ($4,300): Powell has emerged as the best option under center for the Mavericks, and he's currently providing a relatively stable floor. I'm not a big fan of targeting this game, but Powell should be a cinch to beat value at this price, and although I've given Towns a full-throated endorsement, going cheap with someone like Powell or Bryant at the utility spot could reap huge dividends.
