This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
Boston (-6) at Memphis (o/u 228.5)
Toronto (-5.5) at New York (o/u 221.5)
Miami (-10) at Orlando (o/u218.5)
Detroit at Philadelphia (-13) (o/u 232)
Chicago at Minnesota (-7.5) (o/u 229.5)
San Antonio at Dallas (-10.5) (o/u 224.5)
Los Angeles Lakers at Denver (-8.5) (o/u 228.5)
Oklahoma City at Los Angeles Clippers (-10.5) (o/u 219.5)
Golden State Warriors (-5) at New Orleans Pelicans (o/u 221.5)
Sacramento at Phoenix (-13.5) (o/u 231.5)
Utah (-17.5) at Portland (o/u 223)
It's the last day of the regular season, and the betting lines reflect that. There are very few single-digit point spreads, as books try to keep up with injury/rest news that has been steadily flowing in. There will continue to be developing news throughout the day and likely some odd rotations, so this is a tricky slate. However, it's also plenty exploitable by carefully watching the news right up until opening tip.
Injury Situations to Monitor
Fred VanVleet, TOR (knee): probable
VanVleet appears to be in line to return from a two-game absence for the regular-season finale. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him on a minutes limit, though there has not been official word from the team.
OG Anunoby, TOR (thigh): questionable
Anunoby missed Toronto's last outings. It remains to be seen whether the team wants to get him some run before the playoffs or is content to let him continue to rest. Yuta Watanabe should see his minutes tick up if Anunoby remains sidelined.
Gabe Vincent, MIA (toe): questionable
Vincent has recently played through a toe injury, but the team may opt to rest him with several regulars already ruled out or questionable.
Dewayne Dedmon, MIA (ankle): questionable; Omer Yurtseven, MIA (illness): questionable; Markieff Morris, MIA (hip): questionable
The Heat have the potential to be down nearly all their big men, which could make for some interesting rotations. Bam Adebayo would get all the minutes he can handle if he isn't restricted and Duncan Robinson also appears to be a prime beneficiary.
Quentin Grimes, NY (knee): questionable
Grimes has missed the team's last two games with the knee issue, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see him sit again in the finale.
Mo Bamba, ORL (ankle): questionable
Bamba suffered an ankle injury on Thursday, but was able to practice Saturday. That suggests he's on track to play Sunday, but that hasn't been confirmed.
Cade Cunningham, DET (hip): questionable
Cunningham has been on the injury report for roughly the last week. The team could opt to leave him out for the final game of his rookie campaign.
Georges Niang, PHI (knee): questionable
Niang missed Saturday against the Pacers, but his status isn't yet clear for Sunday.
Coby White, CHI (toe): doubtful
The Bulls are resting many of their key players, making it likely that White will also sit. Ayo Dosunmu and Javonte Green are likely to benefit if White is ruled out.
Patrick Beverley, MIN (ankle): questionable
Beverley was able to play through the injury in Minnesota's last matchup, though the team may opt to shift its focus to the play-in game.
D'Angelo Russell, MIN (hamstring): questionable
Russell missed practice Saturday due an illness and also missed the team's last game Thursday. Given the combination of issues, the Timberwolves may let Russell sit this one out to focus on getting healthier for the play-in matchup.
Dejounte Murray, SAN (illness); Devin Vassell (heel); Keldon Johnson (knee); Jakob Poeltl (back)
Each of these players missed Saturday's matchup and could well be out once again Sunday so that they will be fully ready to go for the play-in game against New Orleans.
Will Barton, DEN (knee): questionable; Aaron Gordon, DEN (hamstring): questionable; Nikola Jokic, DEN (wrist)
The status of this trio is up in the air. Bryn Forbes, Austin Rivers, DeMarcus Cousins, and JaMychal Green could all see an uptick in their role as a result.
Klay Thompson, GS (Achilles)
Thompson was held out of Saturday's outings, but his status for Sunday remains unclear.
Brandon Ingram, NO (hamstring)
Ingram sat Saturday with the injury. With the team locked into the ninth seed, Ingram may stay sidelined Sunday.
De'Aaron Fox, SAC (hand)
Fox hasn't been ruled out formally, but he's been sidelined since Mar. 16. He appears likely to be out to close the season.
Domantas Sabonis, SAC (knee)
Sabonis has also been missing since Mar. 20, so seeing him suit up Sunday would be a surprise.
Alex Len, SAC (back)
Len has missed three consecutive games and is likely to be headed for his fourth straight absence Sunday.
CJ Elleby, POR (illness): questionable
If Elleby is sidelined, Didi Louzada should be in line for increased minutes.
Greg Brown, POR (ankle): probable
Brown left Friday's game early, though it appears he'll be able go for the finale. He's earned 27 minutes across his last five games.
Drew Eubanks, POR (wrist): questionable
Eubanks has maintained a significant role in Portland in his last 16 appearances. It's unclear who exactly will be available for Portland on Sunday, though Reggie Perry would be a likely beneficiary if Eubanks can't go.
Other Notable Injuries
Jimmy Butler, MIA (toe): out
P.J. Tucker, MIA (calf): out
RJ Barrett, NYK (knee): out
Cole Anthony, ORL (toe): out
Jalen Suggs, ORL (ankle): out
Franz Wagner, ORL (ankle): out
Wendell Carter, ORL (wrist): out
Cory Joseph, DET (back): out
Marvin Bagley, DET (hip): out
Alex Caruso, CHI (back): out
Zach LaVine, CHI (knee): out
Nikola Vucevic, CHI (rest): out
DeMar DeRozan, CHI (rest): out
Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN (rest): out
Maxi Kleber, DAL (ankle): out
Russell Westbrook, LAL (shoulder): out
Carmelo Anthony, LAL (illness): out
Anthony Davis, LAL (foot): out
Tre Mann, OKC (hamstring): out
Paul George, LAC (rest): out
Norman Powell, LAC (rest): out
Marcus Morris, LAC (rest): out
Otto Porter, GS (rest): out
Andre Iguodala, GS (rest): out
Cameron Payne, PHO (knee): out
Kris Dunn, POR (ankle): out
Justise Winslow, POR (calf): out
Trendon Watford, POR (knee): out
Josh Hart, POR (knee): out
Elite Players
Figuring out which elite players to roster on this slate will be difficult and will largely depend on which teams are willing to fight for seeding by putting their stars on the floor. The Mavericks could clinch the third seed with a win and a Golden State loss, though the games tip off simultaneously. While Luka Doncic ($12,200) may begin the game with the intention of playing with a normal workload, that may not occur if the Warriors pull out to a significant lead over the Pelicans. San Antonio also has nothing to play for, so Doncic's matchup may not be competitive and could put his minutes at risk. Assuming normal minutes, he's worth the lofty salary considering he's topped 65 DK points in three of his last five games and has reached a minimum of 55.25 over that span.
Joel Embiid ($11,800) and the 76ers will go through a similar situation as they are likely to be looked into the fourth spot. With a win and a Boston loss, Philadelphia would move up to third. Given that Boston is projected to be in a relatively tight game with Memphis, expect Embiid to see a normal role unless his matchup gets out of hand. Given that his minutes are likely safer and is a slight discount compared to Doncic, Embiid is my favorite player to build through on the slate with the information we currently have.
The last seemingly safe star to target is Jayson Tatum ($10,300) with Boston locked into the three seed with a win. Their matchup with the Grizzlies is projected to be relatively close, and Tatum has been removed from the injury report after missing the team's last game. As for his play on the floor, he's scored at least 45.5 DK in four of his last five games. Tatum's reasonably valued for the floor he provides, which is notable given the rest of the context on the slate.
Projected Chalk
Talen Horton-Tucker ($5,200) will be a major beneficiary of the Lakers' core sitting out Sunday. Without each of James, Westbrook, and Davis on Friday, Horton-Tucker produced 37 DK. Though his salary has spiked as a result, he remains a clear value play on the slate and that will attract a high roster rate. The same can be said of Dwight Howard ($5,100).
Max Strus ($4,300) recently showed his substantial upside with Jimmy Butler sidelined by putting up 33.75 DK last Sunday. The entire Heat rotation could be sitting, so Strus will project well and see a significant roster rate as a result.
Obi Toppin ($6,500) has gained a tremendous role in the absence of RJ Barrett and Julius Randle. His value has significantly risen in only four games, though he's reached at least 33 DK in every game in that stretch. Toppin represents a strong value play as a result and will be rostered as such.
With Wendell Carter and Franz Wagner both ruled out, Chuma Okeke ($5,700) remains locked into a substantial spot. He's topped 30 minutes in each of his last two games and posted 32.75 and 46.75 DK, respectively.
Value Plays
There's a lot value to be had in Chicago's backcourt with Zach LaVine, Alex Caruso and Lonzo Ball all sitting. That leaves Coby White ($4,400) (also questionable) and Ayo Dosunmu ($3,900) with significant upside particularly given their minimal salary.
Rodney McGruder ($3,700) has seen an uptick in role in recent games due to the absence of Cory Joseph and Hamidou Diallo. But with Cade Cunningham questionable for Sunday, McGruder's role could increase further. His value hasn't risen with his added responsibilities, so watch for the Cunningham news. If the rookie is out, McGruder should provide excellent value. He still could be worth selecting if the star takes the floor.
The Clippers are resting many of their key players, which will open up time for Luke Kennard ($4,800). He's shown the ability to post ceiling games on rare occasions, and Sunday should be one. Kennard typically logs fairly solid minutes, but he should also see increased usage specifically without Paul George and Norman Powell.
Naz Reid ($3,300) should draw a start at center with Karl-Anthony Towns ruled out early. At $3,300, Reid could realistically provide seven times value in DK points.
Kelly Olynyk ($4,400) benefitted from the absence of Marvin Bagley in Detroit's last game. Bagley is ruled out and Olynyk's salary has increased by $600, but he should still do well.
