This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
Hawks at Celtics (-6)
Timberwolves (-6) at Pacers (o/u 235.5)
Given the Super Bowl, the NBA has scheduled a limited Sunday slate. As the game total suggests, the Pacers-Timberwolves matchup should be a strong offensive environment. The Celtics should also be in a decent situation with the Hawks a weak defensive team struggling to guard the three-point line.
Injury Situations to Monitor
Trae Young, ATL (hip): Probable
Young apparently picked up the injury in the win over San Antonio on Friday. He appears likely to play through the issue and has produced more than 50 DK points in four of his last six games. If Young is out, Delon Wright (if available), Bogdan Bogdanovic and Lou Williams are candidates for more ball-handling duties.
Delon Wright, ATL (hip): Probable
Wright was previously dealing with an ankle injury, so it's not clear when he suffered the hip issue. Even so, it appears likely he'll take the floor on Sunday.
Daniel Theis, BOS (recently traded): Questionable
Theis was traded from Houston to Boston at the deadline, so it's not clear whether he'll be available to suit up.
Anthony Edwards, MIN (knee): Questionable
Edwards has played through the knee injury in several recent games, so expect him to do the same Sunday unless news develops differently.
Malcolm Brogdon, IND (Achilles): Questionable
Brogdon last played Jan. 19 and the Pacers have little interest in winning games at this point in the season. It'd be a surprise to see him go Sunday, and his minutes are likely to be limited if he does.
Other Notable Injuries
John Collins, ATL (foot): Out
Isaiah Jackson, IND (ankle): Out
Myles Turner, IND (foot): Out
Elite Players
Trae Young ($9,800) is the marquee player on the slate and as noted above has regularly shown the ability to reach value of late. However, there are a number of concerns regarding his ability to do so Sunday. First, he's dealing with a hip injury and may not be at full strength even if he's able to take the floor. A matchup against Boston also won't do Young any favors as the Celtics are second in the league in defensive rating and the pace projects to be relatively slow. Given all those factors, Young isn't all that enticing from a value perspective.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,700) is in nearly the exact opposite circumstances as Young. He hasn't hit value frequently in recent games at his current salary. However, the Pacers have a depleted frontcourt, with both Myles Turner and Isaiah Jackson sidelined. Overall, Indiana is also among the worst teams in the league in defensive rating. The Wolves play very quickly and this matchup is the one to target based on the projected total. The primary downside to Towns is the possibility that D'Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards cut into his usage. I'd still prefer Towns to Young.
Jayson Tatum ($9,600) is the only other player on the slate above $9,000. His value has dropped $1,000 since Feb. 6, yet he still hasn't met value in the majority of his latest games. Sunday has the chance to be different as the Hawks maintain the league's fourth-worst defensive rating and particularly struggle to defend the three-point shot. For those reasons, I like Tatum as a GPP play, but I wouldn't build around him in cash because his salary point remains inflated.
Expected Chalk
There's likely to be a lot of chalk because there are only two games. Injury news will condense roster rates further, but Oshae Brissett ($4,500) is an obvious play given what we currently know. Domantas Sabonis is out of the picture after being traded and both Isaiah Jackson and Myles Turner remain out. Brissett's salary jumped $800 thanks to a 42.75 DK point performance Friday, but he should have no trouble returning value at his current salary.
The numerous absences in Indiana's frontcourt also create room for at least one of Goga Bitadze (4,900) and Jalen Smith ($3,200) to produce. Smith got more run of that duo Friday, though watch news and projections to see how minutes are expected to be divided Sunday. Both offer the potential to return value and also be very popular.
Danilo Gallinari ($4,600) should be the primary beneficiary of John Collins' absence. His salary increased by $500, but that isn't enough to account for his increase in role and he'll be another among the most obvious plays Sunday.
Value Plays
In addition to the players listed above, the following players have a good chance to return value:
The Pacers cleared out much of their wing and backcourt rotation at the trade deadline, which has helped Chris Duarte ($5,700) log more consistent minutes and role. The addition of Tyrese Haliburton hasn't slowed him as he's topped 30 DK points in three consecutive games. As has already been noted, the Pacers-Timberwolves game is the matchup to target due to the projected positive offensive environment.
Remaining in Indiana, Buddy Hield ($5,600) was allowed to hoist 17 attempts in his Pacers debut. He shot only 35 percent from the field, yet still managed to post 40.75 DK points. He isn't likely to grab nine rebounds or hand out eight assists again, but his role appears secure and he should be able to score more efficiently Sunday.
Because of the limited options on the slate, I'll also add in a few players who have the potential to swing the slate Sunday but also come with significant downside. Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5,200) has gone over 40 DK points in two of his last four games. He failed to reach value in the other two and also faces a tough matchup Sunday. There's obvious risk as a result, but he has the chance to deliver a key score on a limited schedule.
D'Angelo Russell ($7,100) has experienced a similar track record in recent games having delivered 43.25 and 55.5 DK points in two of his most recent four while struggling in the other two. Karl-Anthony Towns is likely to be the most popular Minnesota player, but Russell could be the one to get hot and significantly outproduce value.
