This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
By postseason standards, we have a big four-game, all-day slate Saturday, one that includes one potential series-ending scenario in that of the Bucks-Heat series. The number of contests allows us to essentially treat the day as a typical modest Thursday night regular-season ledger, for example, as it affords us a solid player pool to work with that certainly has enough to achieve some differentiation in tournaments. The injury report is also light, although there is one massive name sporting a questionable tag.
Slate Overview
Here's a closer look at the three games with the highest projected totals on Saturday's slate:
Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers (Projected total: 227.5 points)
After the Trail Blazers did a surprisingly effective job defensively in Game 1 by holding the Nuggets to 109 points, Denver has roared back to score a combined 248 points in the following pair of contests, both victories. The final game of the regular season between these teams also finished with a combined total of 248 points, so there's little doubt these clubs can not only match but exceed this total. The Blazers are now allowing 114.2 points per home game while scoring 115.3 per game there, while the Nuggets aren't quite as prolific as at Ball Arena but are still putting up 113.2 per road contest. Both Damian Lillard (37.7 PPG) and Nikola Jokic (36.0 PPG) have essentially proven unstoppable for each side over the first three games, and that's likely to continue Saturday on the way to another elevated total.
Philadelphia 76ers at Washington Wizards (Projected total: 227.5 points)
The monumental question here is the health of Russell Westbrook's ankle, which caused an early exit in Game 2 and which he missed practice Friday to get treatment on. The perennial All-Star and future Hall of Famer would naturally create a significant scoring vacuum were he to miss, both due to the points he directly would pour in as well as the ones he would facilitate with his elite distribution skills. Washington was unable to keep things up on the offensive end in Game 2 with just 95 points, although Game 1 did finish with a combined total of 243 points. There's no doubt about Philadelphia's ability to pour on points on its end, as the Sixers have reached 120 points in each of the first two games of the series and scored 141 and 127 in the last pair of regular-season meetings between the two clubs.
Utah Jazz at Memphis Grizzlies (Projected total: 223.5 points)
The Grizzlies somewhat surprisingly made a sizable offensive impact against the normally stingy Jazz over the first two games of the series at Vivint Smart Home Arena, where Utah typically smothered opponents this season. Memphis put up 112 and 129 points in that pair of contests, with Game 2 finishing with a monstrous 270-point total. While the two clubs may very well not even approach those numbers again the rest of the series, it's clear Ja Morant and Donovan Mitchell could be key forces in keeping the offense humming for either side as the series shifts to FedEx Forum on Saturday. It's worth noting two of the three regular-season games between these teams actually finished with totals north of 230 points, but there are a couple of interesting statistical nuggets pertaining to the home/road splits that apply for these teams Saturday – Memphis is actually much less potent offensively at home (109.8 PPG) than on the road (116.8 PPG, incl. playoffs) and also was over four points per game better on defense (110.2 PPG allowed at home, 114.4 PPG surrendered on road).
Injury Situations to Monitor
NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written, check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate.
Russell Westbrook, WAS (ankle)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
Westbrook is legitimately questionable for Saturday's game after missing Friday's practice for treatment. While there's no doubt he'll do everything to suit up, Ish Smith would likely move into the starting lineup if Westbrook sits, while Bradley Beal would particularly see a major boost in usage.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL (groin)/ Status: PROBABLE
Antetokounmpo is expected to take the floor without restrictions for a possible series-clinching Game 4, but Bobby Portis would likely be the most direct beneficiary should the big man face any restrictions.
Other notable injuries:
Tobias Harris, PHI (ankle)/ Status: PROBABLE
Seth Curry, PHI (ankle)/ Status: GTD
Will Barton, DEN (hamstring)/ Status: OUT
Donte DiVincenzo, MIL (ankle)/ Status: OUT
Elite Players
We have three players with five-figure salaries on Saturday's slate – Russell Westbrook ($11,200), Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,700) and Nikola Jokic ($10,400).
As already mentioned, Westbrook's health is the biggest question of the day, and with the 76ers-Wizards not tipping off until this evening, his status may not be known until several hours into the slate. If he can suit up, the question will be whether he faces any restrictions or actual physical limitations.
Antetokounmpo has a probable designation. He's fully expected to play and has been unstoppable against the Heat, averaging 24.7 points, 16.0 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 2.3 steals across 36.3 minutes. With a potential series-clinching win at stake, Giannis could be worth every bit of his salary, especially if the Heat puts up more resistance as it strives to stave off elimination.
Jokic has been even more dominant than Antetokounmpo in his series, averaging 36.0 points, 11.7 rebounds and 3.7 assists across the first three games against Portland, shooting an outstanding 57.7 percent, including 50.0 percent from three-point range. He should once again be set for massive usage in what's proven to be a highly favorable matchup.
Healthy players with salaries in the high four figures capable of also delivering elite scores include Joel Embiid ($9,800), Damian Lillard ($9,600), Bradley Beal ($9,000) and Ja Morant ($8,300). Embiid has been excellent in the first two games versus the Wizards and should continue encountering little resistance. Lillard has led the way for the Blazers with 37.7 points on 43.2 percent three-point shooting and should enjoy a massive role once again Saturday, while Morant has clearly discovered another gear since the play-in game win against the Warriors, averaging 36.0 points (on 52.6 percent shooting), 5.7 assists, 4.7 rebounds and 1.7 steals over the last three games. Given his performances against the Jazz thus far, he could turn out to be one of the best fantasy-point-per-dollar plays of the day.
Expected Chalk
In addition to the players just mentioned in the prior section, other likely chalk plays include:
Jimmy Butler, MIA ($8,600)
Butler has notably underperformed over the first three games of the series (15.3 points on 30.6 percent shooting), but the small slate and his name value should keep him very popular.
Donovan Mitchell, UTA ($8,200)
Mitchell looked like he hadn't missed a beat while scoring 25 points in 26 minutes in his Game 2 return and should be in for a larger workload Saturday.
Jonas Valanciunas, MEM ($7,900)
Valanciunas has had a bit of an atypical postseason by scoring and rebounding in single digits once apiece thus far over three total games (including play-in) but remains one of the most dependable options at center.
Khris Middleton, MIL ($7,800)
Middleton is shooting an impressive 51.2 percent, including 42.9 percent from distance, over the first three games of the series and should once again be highly rostered as a rock-solid cash or tournament mid-salary play.
Jrue Holiday, MIL ($7,500)
Holiday has double-digit assists and over 40 DK points in each of the first three games of the series, which should keep him very popular Saturday at a salary that's arguably too low for his production.
Key Values
Facundo Campazzo, DEN at POR ($6,500)
I'm high on the upside of the Nuggets backcourt Saturday, beginning with Campazzo, who's scored 25.8 to 38.5 DK points in the first three games of the series. Campazzo is now averaging 25.4 DK points over six games against Portland since the start of the regular season (on 45.8 percent three-point shooting) despite not starting one of those games and playing just 14 minutes in another. The success isn't surprising, considering the Blazers are allowing the highest offensive efficiency to point guards (30.6 percent), along with 48.5 DK points per contest to the position over the last five games.
Austin Rivers, DEN at POR ($4,300)
Rivers was a pleasant surprise for Denver in Game 3, racking up 33.5 DK points over 37 minutes while draining 50.0 percent of his attempts, including from behind the arc. Rivers has enjoyed success against Portland dating back to the regular season as well, as he's shot 46.9 percent overall, including 45.0 percent from behind the arc, over five games overall. The Blazers also rank in the bottom 10 in three-point percentage allowed (37.4 percent), including 42.2 percent during the current series, furthering Rivers' case at his very reasonable salary.
Bryn Forbes, MIL at MIA ($3,600)
Forbes is poised to take on a starting role with Donte DiVincenzo out for the remainder of the postseason with the ankle injury he suffered in Game 3, yet the sharpshooter's salary is nowhere near commensurate to his expanded role. Forbes has already put up 30.3 and 18.3 DK points in the last two games of the series while playing just 20 minutes apiece, and he should naturally be in for a larger workload Saturday afternoon. The Heat make for great targets, as Miami is allowing 37.2 percent shooting from three-point range to two-guards and a whopping 64.3 DK points per game to players with shooting guard designations over the last five games, while Forbes has drained 51.5 percent from behind the arc in six games against Miami since the start of the regular season.
