This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
There are eight games in total Saturday, but the DraftKings main slate features six evening matchups, giving us what might be considered by some as an ideal number of contests to work with. The modest number of matchups does simplify our decision-making process to an extent, but the injury report, as has often been the case recently, is dotted with plenty of notable names, many already confirmed out. As customary, this will open some value at the mid-salary and value levels, which always helps make for a more interesting and perhaps challenging roster construction process.
Slate Overview
Here's a closer look at the three games with the highest projected totals on DraftKings Sportsbook for Saturday night's slate:
Minnesota Timberwolves at Utah Jazz (Projected total: 231.0 points)
The Timberwolves are allowing the second-most points per game (118.3), including an NBA-high 121.4 per road game and 124 over their last three overall. The Jazz check in scoring 116.8 per game, including 118.7 per Vivint Smart Home Arena contest, the most of any Western Conference team on its home floor. Meanwhile, while Utah is allowing an NBA-low 104.0 points per home game as well, it's worth noting Minnesota has been much better offensive on the road (114.0 PPG) than at home (107.5). The first game between these teams this season actually resulted in a T-Wolves win in Utah and a 227-point total, so this projected figure seems very conceivable.
San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Pelicans (Projected total: 228.5 points)
While the first game between these teams this season resulted in just 192 combined points, there were 231 combined points scored in the second meeting. The Spurs come in sporting impressive road defense, as they're allowing just 108.8 points per contest. Meanwhile, the Pelicans have been much more generous, surrendering 115.2 points per game, including 114.4 per home contest. On the offensive end, New Orleans is putting up an impressive 116.2 points per home game while San Antonio is clocking a more modest 111.5 per road tilt, but with both teams gunning for the postseason, this could very well be a back-and-forth, higher-scoring affair.
Detroit Pistons at Indiana Pacers (Projected total: 225.5 points)
The Pistons are projected to be on one of their "non-rest" nights when it comes to key players Saturday, which should help their overall offensive upside. Detroit comes in allowing nearly six more points per game on the road (114.1) than at home (108.3), while the Pacers are yielding 113.6 points per Bankers Life Fieldhouse matchup. Indy will still be missing Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner, but they did just score 122 points in their second game without Sabonis on Wednesday and come in with two days of rest. The most recent game between these clubs finished with a combined 227 points, and this total, while just short of that, could very well be realistic considering each club's general defensive deficiencies.
Injury Situations to Monitor
NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written, check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate.
LeBron James, LAL (ankle)/ Status: OUT
James' ongoing absence should continue to lead to plenty of elevated usage for the remainder of the starting five, which should include Anthony Davis for the second straight game.
Donovan Mitchell, UTA (ankle)/ Status: OUT
Mitchell's ongoing absence should continue to lead to elevated usage for the remainder of the starting five and keep Joe Ingles on the first unit.
Anthony Davis, LAL (calf)/ Status: PROBABLE
Davis is expected to play and likely see a bump in minutes from the 17 minutes he logged in his return Thursday against the Mavericks.
Zach LaVine, CHI (COVID-19 protocols)/ Status: OUT
LaVine's ongoing absence Saturday should continue to keep Garrett Temple in the starting five while leading to extra usage for the first unit.
Domantas Sabonis, IND (back)/ Status: OUT
Sabonis' ongoing absence, coupled with that of Myles Tuner, could lead to another starting opportunity for Oshae Brissett, who posted a 23-point,12-rebound double-double Wednesday against the Thunder. The remainder of the starting five, especially Malcolm Brogdon, should continue logging elevated usage as well.
Kristaps Porzingis, DAL (ankle)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
If Porzingis were to sit out, Dwight Powell, Willie Cauley-Stein and Boban Marjanovic could all see extra minutes, while Luka Doncic's usage would likely go up to even higher levels.
DeMar DeRozan, SAN (quadriceps)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
If DeRozan were to sit out, Luka Samanic could remain in the starting five for a second straight game, while the remainder of the starting five would see elevated usage.
Christian Wood, HOU (ankle)/ Status: DOUBTFUL
If Wood sits out as expected, Jae'Sean Tate and Kenyon Martin could be the biggest beneficiaries directly, while the remainder of the starting five would enjoy elevated roles, especially with John Wall also sitting out for rest.
John Wall, HOU (rest)/ Status: OUT
With Wall out and Kevin Porter still in COVID-19 protocols, Armoni Brooks could be in line for a run with the starting five at point guard.
Other notable injuries:
Jerami Grant, DET (quadriceps)/ Status: PROBABLE
Dennis Schroder, LAL (foot)/ Status: PROBABLE
Andre Drummond, LAL (toe)/ Status: PROBABLE
Steven Adams, NOP (ankle)/ Status: PROBABLE
Will Barton, DEN (hamstring)/ Status: GTD
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, LAL (back)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
Markieff Morris, LAL (ankle)/ Status: PROBABLE
Kevin Porter, HOU (COVID-19 protocols)/ Status: OUT
Victor Oladipo, MIA (knee)/ Status: OUT
Nickeil Alexander-Walker, NOP (ankle)/ Status: OUT
Myles Turner, IND (foot)/ Status: OUT
Monte Morris, DEN (hamstring)/ Status: OUT
Eric Gordon, HOU (groin)/ Status: GTD
Elite Players
We have five players with five-figure salaries on Saturday's slate – Luka Doncic ($11,000), Nikola Jokic ($10,900), Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,500), Nikola Vucevic ($10,200) and Zion Williamson ($10,100).
Doncic could be taking the floor without Kristaps Porzingis and gets a rematch with a Lakers team he put up 58.3 DK points against in Thursday's matchup. Jokic is facing a Rockets team he's already averaging 69.0 DK points against in two games this season, and that's the most generous team in the league in terms of giving up rebounds, but there is real blowout risk attached with Houston down both John Wall and almost certainly Christian Wood as well. Towns is part of the game with the highest projected total of the night but has to deal with Rudy Gobert down low, while Vucevic will once again operate without Zach LaVine in a game versus a Heat team he's already averaged 51.7 DK points against in three games this season. Finally, Williamson has averaged 47.1 DK points in two previous games against the Spurs and is averaging 43.3 DK points over his last five, so he may have a difficult time delivering a true 5x return on his hefty figure.
Healthy players with salaries in the high four figures capable of also delivering elite scores include Jimmy Butler ($9,500), Anthony Davis ($9,400), Brandon Ingram ($8,800) and Malcolm Brogdon ($8,300).
Butler put up 52.8 DK points the one prior time he saw his old Bulls squad this season and checks in averaging hefty 44.4 DK points in his last five games. Davis is likely going to have a difficult time living up to his salary due to playing time restrictions, while Ingram is averaging 47.9 DK points in his first two games against the Spurs. Brogdon will once again operate without Domantas Sabonis and just put up 61.8 DK points without his teammate on Wednesday. He's averaging 49.1 DK points per 36 minutes overall without his teammate this season.
Expected Chalk
In addition to the players just mentioned in the prior section, other likely chalk plays include:
Caris LeVert, IND ($8,100)
Should be in plenty of rosters with Sabonis out.
Michael Porter, DEN ($8,000)
Recent performances and favorable matchup against Rockets should lead to plenty of clicks.
Derrick White, SAN ($6,800)
Had an outstanding performance last time out, although that came with both Dejounte Murray (rest) and DeMar DeRozan out.
Joe Ingles, UTA ($6,600)
Has scored 35.0 to 53.3 DK points in the last three and still sports a salary that's well below that level of production.
Kelly Olynyk, HOU ($6,700)
Averaging 35.3 DK points over the last six games and will be without both Wall and very likely Wood on Saturday.
Oshae Brissett, IND ($4,200)
Should draw another start in Sabonis' stead and has put up 24.0 and 51.5 DK points in the last two.
Key Values
Joe Ingles, UTA vs. MIN ($6,600)
As just mentioned, Ingles has scored 35.0 to 53.3 DK points in his last three contests, his first trio of starts in Donovan Mitchell's current absence. Ingles is averaging 35.4 DK points per 36 minutes overall without Mitchell on the floor this season and faces a Timberwolves team that's allowed the fourth-highest offensive efficiency (25.4 percent) to two-guards, including 40.4 percent three-point shooting to the position. Minnesota is also surrendering 58.4 DK points per game to players with shooting guard designations this season, including the most (89.7) in the last 10.
Mason Plumlee, DET at IND ($4,900)
Plumlee should be in the starting five after sitting out Thursday against the Spurs and is coming off having put up 44.0 DK points in his last game against the Mavericks. The veteran big man racked up 35.0 DK points in his one prior game against the Pacers this season as well and will be facing the inexperienced Oshae Brissett frequently down low with both Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis sidelined. Indiana already comes in ranked in the bottom 10 in offensive efficiency allowed to centers (32.9 percent), and the Pacers are giving up the second-most DK points per game (80.7) to players with center designations over the last 10 contests.
Oshae Brissett, IND vs. DET ($4,200)
Speaking of Brissett, the young big is coming off two strong performances (24.0 and 51.5 DK points) and should enjoy a hefty role once again Saturday due to the depleted nature of the Pacers frontcourt. The 22-year-old will face a Pistons team that's surrendered eighth-highest offensive efficiency (33.6 percent) to centers, as well as the ninth-most DK points per game (53.6) to fives for the season. Additionally, Detroit's sub-46.0 percent shooting on the road should lead to some extra opportunities on the defensive glass for Brissett, who just recorded a season-high eight in that category against the Thunder on Wednesday.
Other value plays to consider: Derrick White, SA at NO ($6,800); T.J. McConnell, IND vs. DET ($5,500); Thaddeus Young, CHI at MIA ($5,300); Daniel Theis, CHI at MIA ($4,000); Armoni Brooks, HOU at DEN ($3,800)
