This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
We've got an interesting seven-game slate on tap Saturday night, one that features six of seven contests with point spreads of more than nine points. That does raise a red flag for DFS purposes, considering there could be some capped minutes for higher-salary players if many of those contests do unfold as oddsmakers envision. However, there are also a solid number of mid- and lower-salary options that can help mitigate some of the risk and some games that could feature an above-average amount of offense.
Slate Overview
Here's a closer look at the two games with the highest projected totals on Saturday's slate as of early Saturday morning:
Sacramento Kings at Utah Jazz (Projected total: 231.0 points)
The Jazz are scoring a Western Conference-high 118.7 points per home game, while the Kings allow a co-NBA-high 118.5 points per contest. However, Sacramento is also a top-10-ranked team on offense, as they've put up 114.4 points per game. However, Utah has been an excellent defense at home, so a significant share of points should come from the Jazz in this spot.
Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors (Projected total: 228.0 points)
The Warriors score 115.1 points per home game, but they also give up 114.1 per contest overall. Golden State is averaging the second-most possessions per game (105.7), which brings a slight bump in pace for the Rockets. Houston should have John Wall back in the lineup after he rested Friday, and the Rockets check in allowing 115.5 points per road game. Houston also scores nearly four more points per game on the road (109.6) than at home (105.8), further adding to the probability the total here can be approached.
Injury Situations to Monitor
NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written, check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate.
James Harden, BKN (hamstring)/ Status: OUT
Harden's ongoing absence should lead to plenty of extra usage for Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving in particular.
Joel Embiid, PHI (knee)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
If Embiid returns to being sidelined, Dwight Howard will step into the starting five, and the rest of the first unit would see big bumps in usage.
Bradley Beal, WAS (hip)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
If Beal were to sit out the second night of a back-to-back set, Russell Westbrook would see a bump in his already massive usage, as would the rest of the Wizards' starting five to a degree.
Fred VanVleet, TOR (hip)/ Status: OUT
VanVleet's fourth straight absence should lead to another start for DeAndre' Bembry and additional usage for the rest of the starting five.
Jarrett Allen, CLE (concussion)/ Status: OUT
In Allen's ongoing absence, Kevin Love should continue handling center duties.
Kyle Lowry, TOR (foot)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
If Lowry can return from a five-game absence, Malachi Flynn could see a decrease in playing time.
Kyle Kuzma, LAL (calf)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
If Kuzma were to sit out, Wesley Matthews would likely enter the starting lineup, while the remaining members of the starting five would see a significant bump in usage.
Jerami Grant, DET (knee)/ Status: OUT
In Grant's second consecutive absence, Sekou Doumbouya and Isaiah Stewart will likely be direct beneficiaries, while Saddiq Bey could also enjoy a bump in usage.
Mason Plumlee, DET (concussion)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
If Plumlee were to miss a second straight game, Isiah Stewart would be due for another start at the five.
Other notable injuries:
LeBron James, LAL (ankle)/ Status: OUT
Anthony Davis, LAL (calf)/ Status: OUT
Larry Nance, CLE (illness)/ Status: OUT
Jordan Clarkson, UTA (ankle)/ Status: DOUBTFUL
Darius Bazley, OKC (shoulder)/Status: PROBABLE
Marc Gasol, LAL (hamstring)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
Elite Players
We have four viable players on Saturday's slate carrying five-figure salaries – Russell Westbrook ($10,900), Kyrie Irving ($10,400), Stephen Curry ($10,100) and Joel Embiid ($10,000).
Westbrook could be set for another ultra-high-usage night if Beal logs a rest day after returning Friday. Irving is in a prime spot against an overmatched Lakers team and without Harden around to swallow up point-guard duties, but there is a blowout risk involved. Curry draws an excellent matchup against the Rockets, and with Wall suiting up for Houston, this could be a very competitive game. Finally, Embiid's status will have to be closely monitored after his in-game knee injury Friday.
There are also several players with salaries in the high four figures that have the ability to deliver elite scores, including Damian Lillard ($9,400), De'Aaron Fox ($9,200), Kevin Durant ($9,100), Devin Booker ($8,900) and Donovan Mitchell ($8,800).
Lillard has a solid matchup against the Pistons, but Fox could have trouble delivering full value on his current salary against Utah. Durant could be in an excellent position to return at least 5x on his current salary with Harden still out and KD's minutes likely to bump up after a successful return Thursday. Booker and Mitchell are both riding high on hot streaks and have excellent matchups versus the Wizards and Kings, respectively.
Expected Chalk
In addition to the players listed in the previous section, other likely chalk plays include: Any healthy members of the Lakers' starting five, especially if Kuzma sits out; Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris and Dwight Howard if Embiid sits out; DeAndre' Bembry with VanVleet out again, and Chris Boucher based on his most recent performance; Isaiah Stewart if Plumlee logs a second straight absence.
Key Values
Chris Boucher, TOR at CLE ($6,800)
There's no doubt Boucher will be rostered through the roof following his 69.8 DK-point performance against the Bulls on Thursday, a tally he managed on the strength of a massive 38-point, 19-rebound double-double. Expecting an encore is a bit of a stretch, but Boucher has delivered at least 40 DK points on nine other occasions this season as well. Given the results Thursday, there's little doubt Boucher will see a fifth straight start, and the matchup against a Cavaliers squad that's ranked in the bottom half of the league in offensive efficiency allowed to centers (31.9 percent) and allows 57.9 DK points per game to the position over the last five games is certainly an appealing one.
Andre Drummond, LAL at BKN (6,500)
Speaking of favorable matchups for bigs, Drummond is in a prime position against a Nets team that's been a doormat against centers all season. Brooklyn allows the sixth-highest offensive efficiency (34.1 percent) to fives, along with the ninth-most DK points per game (66.3) to centers. Meanwhile, Drummond corroborated he was fully recovered from the toe issue that sidelined him in his first game with the Lakers when he posted 38.5 DK points in a tough positional matchup versus the Heat on Thursday. Drummond logged 27 minutes in that contest, and with the bump in pace the Nets will bring and the fact L.A. remains without two prime sources of offense, he could be in for an even bigger workload Saturday.
Enes Kanter, POR vs. DET ($5,900)
Kanter will get another run on the starting five Saturday with Jusuf Nurkic still out with his knee injury, which should leave him in an excellent position to outperform his salary versus a Pistons team that's allowed the eighth-highest offensive efficiency (33.2 percent) to centers, along with 63.5 DK points per game to fives over the last 10 games. Kanter has averaged 42.0 DK points per 36 minutes without Nurkic on the floor this season, and he's delivered over 5x his salary in 26 of his 51 games. Then, consider Detroit is allowing an Eastern Conference-high 52.4 points in the paint per road game, while Kanter is scoring a career-high 84.0 percent of his points in that part of the floor this season.
Other value plays to consider: Kevin Love, CLE vs. TOR ($6,100); Taurean Prince, CLE vs. TOR ($4,600); Isaiah Stewart, DET at POR ($4,500)
