Mickey Moniak

Enough has been said about Moniak being a colossal bust that it may surprise some to note that he's still only 24. The 2016 first-overall pick has failed to live up to that billing thus far, but he made some noise in the minors last season, slashing .312/.362/.600 with eight homers, 20 RBI and five steals over 138 plate appearances between three levels and four clubs. The Phillies moved on from him after he went just 6-for-46 with 19 strikeouts during an opportunity in the majors, trading him to the Angels in a deal that netted them Brandon Marsh. Moniak got off to nice start with his new team, slugging two homers in five games immediately after the trade. He then broke his left middle finger and missed over a month, and when he returned in September the steam was gone, as he went 8-for-46 with a 1:20 BB:K the rest of the way. The Angels would love to see Moniak turn things around and erase the bust label, but it's hard to look past the career .218 OBP and 39.5% strikeout rate he's posted thus far as a big-leaguer. Los Angeles traded for Hunter Renfroe in the offseason, effectively eliminating Moniak's chance of competing for a starting or platoon role. At this point, it would probably be a win for him to emerge as a decent fourth outfielder.

Moniak has had his share of deserved detractors over the past few years, and he's quite unlikely to live up to the lofty expectations that come with being a number one overall pick, but he's now officially a major leaguer after appearing in eight games last season. There's very little to analyze about his debut, as he came to the plate just 18 times, hitting .214/.389/.214, but the fact that he made it at the young age of 22 is certainly a positive. Where exactly he fits into the Phillies' outfield plans this season isn't entirely clear. He could presumably use some more seasoning in the minors, as he skipped Triple-A entirely while the minor leagues were shut down. None of the team's primary center field options (Roman Quinn, Adam Haseley and Scott Kingery) had very convincing 2020 campaigns, though, so there's a chance Moniak could play a significant role this year if he looks good early in the minors.

You might not be able to tell from Moniak's current prospect reports and rankings, but the 2016 first-overall pick has actually been trending in the right direction for over a year now. After hitting poorly for all of 2017 and the first part of 2018, he posted a .774 OPS over his last 59 games of 2018 and followed that up with a .741 OPS at Double-A Reading last season. That was good for a solid 115 wRC+, a number to which he added 11 homers and 15 steals. That's a decent performance for a center fielder, especially considering he began the season at just 20 years old. Being able to hold his own while being young for his level is just about the only thing Moniak has going for him at this point, though, as his hype is far from where it should be for a first-overall pick. He could debut this season but will need to add something to his game if he's to look like anything other than a fourth outfielder.

Moniak's .270/.304/.383 line for High-A Clearwater last season was a small improvement on his .236/.284/.341 showing at Low-A Lakewood in 2017, but it's still a performance that better suits a non-prospect than a first overall pick. Digging deeper into Moniak's season reveals at least some reason for optimism. Over his first 54 games, he recorded an ugly .592 OPS, but he posted to a .774 mark across his final 59 games, a change spurred by a drop in strikeout rate paired with an increase in walks and balls in the air. Still, even the revitalized version of Moniak is a relatively uninteresting fantasy prospect, as he managed just five homers and six steals. A respectable average without much power or speed is a profile that looks a lot like 2018 Jason Heyward but with worse defense, which doesn't make for a very exciting fantasy piece. Moniak will have to take at least one more step forward, if not several, to have much value in dynasty leagues.

"Safe" and "high floor" are dangerous words to throw around regarding high school prospects, but that was the selling point when the Phillies selected Moniak with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 draft. He was supposed to be a slick defender in center field with impact speed and a plus-plus hit tool -- think Lorenzo Cain or Ender Inciarte. Unfortunately, evaluators who saw Moniak in the Sally League in 2017 did not see 1-1 caliber player. They didn't even see a first-round talent. He was lost at the plate, particularly against lefties, and was not a plus runner. The early returns suggest the Phillies whiffed on that pick. The problem with his profile, even at the time of the draft, was that if he did not hit as expected, he might just be a fourth outfielder. A hit tool is the hardest thing to scout, and it is particularly hard to scout on the prep circuit. It's a hard pill to swallow, but his lack of upside makes it hard to continue to roster him in most dynasty leagues.

The first overall pick in the 2016 draft was considered one of the top high school bats available, bringing superb contact skills along with exceptional speed. His potential plus-plus hit tool, noteworthy speed and good defense in center field give him a solid floor as a fantasy prospect, but his value will be limited if he does not develop more power as he fills out. After signing, Moniak started at the Gulf Coast League, where he hit .284/.340/.409 with a home run and 10 steals in 176 at-bats. A hip injury, which was believed to be caused by fatigue, sidelined him for some of the instructional league in October, but he returned to the field before play ended. The Phillies will likely start Moniak off at Low-A Lakewood this season and keep him there the entire year.