This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
LAL vs. NY (-3), O/U: 205.5
PHI (-2.5) vs. DAL, O/U: 224.5
BKN (-8.5) vs. MIN, O/U: 236.5
SA (-6) vs. ORL, O/U: 220.5
CHI vs. MEM (-2.5), O/U: 229
SAC vs. NO (-3.5), O/U: 232
WAS vs. UTA (-12.5), O/U: 234.5
DEN (-3.5) vs. GS, O/U: 229.5
HOU vs. PHX (-13), O/U: 228
The BKN-MIN matchup will be a popular target as the Nets will be without James Harden and Kyrie Irving. There will be plenty of value options on the Brooklyn side while Karl-Anthony Towns is one of the more appealing spend-up options on the slate. It's a great environment for both sides and features the night's highest total.
WAS-UTA is another good target. Russell Westbrook's viability goes without saying but Utah's backcourt will be in an especially favorable spot as both Jordan Clarkson and Mike Conley are likely to be out. A matchup against the bad Wizards defense is appealing on its own as the Jazz have the highest implied total on the slate and Donovan Mitchell getting a minutes and usage bump in a dual with Westbrook has tournament-winning upside if the game stays competitive.
Injuries to Monitor
James Harden (hamstring) and Kyrie Irving (personal): OUT
Harden will be re-evaluated in 10 days after suffering a strained hamstring while Irving has been ruled out for personal reasons. Bruce Brown and Chris Chiozza are expected to handle the point guard duties tonight.
Jamal Murray (knee): QUESTIONABLE
Murray has missed four consecutive games dealing with a knee injury and is listed as questionable. Facundo Campazzo has been starting at point guard in his absence.
Lonzo Ball (hip): QUESTIONABLE
Ball has missed consecutive games with a sore hip flexor and is listed as questionable. Naji Marshall has been starting alongside Eric Bledsoe in the backcourt.
Kyle Kuzma (calf): QUESTIONABLE
Kuzma has missed back-to-back games due to a calf strain and is listed as questionable. Talen Horton-Tucker has been starting at small forward in his place.
Mike Conley (rest): OUT
Conley will be rested to manage his lingering hamstring injury. Joe Ingles will start at shooting guard in his place.
Kelly Oubre (wrist): OUT
Oubre will miss a second consecutive game after injuring his wrist Friday. Kent Bazemore got the start at small forward last time out.
Jordan Clarkson (ankle): DOUBTFUL
Clarkson appears on track to miss a third consecutive game due to a sprained ankle. Donovan Mitchell and Ingles should see extended run with Conley also out.
Elite Players
Guard:
Russell Westbrook ($11,000)
Westbrook has recorded triple-doubles in eight of his last nine games and he's scored at least 50 DK points in 10 straight. He's been the top play on most nights for awhile now, and yet he continues to be less popular than he should be as people chase increasingly elusive ceilings from Luka Doncic among others. The Wizards have a tough matchup against the Jazz, but Westbrook put up 80 DK points against them March 18th.
Donovan Mitchell ($9,200)
Mitchell is a great option in the same matchup. He's topped 50 DK points in three consecutive games and should get a slight bump in minutes and usage as the Jazz will be without Mike Conley and likely Jordan Clarkson.
Center:
Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,500) and Nikola Jokic ($10,400)
Towns continues to be incredibly consistent as he's scored at least 50 DK points in 10 consecutive games. The Timberwolves have a very favorable matchup against the Nets, who are notoriously bad at stopping opposing centers.
Jokic has stepped up in the absence of Jamal Murray as he's now topped 50 DK points in five straight games after previously struggling from a fantasy standpoint following the addition of Aaron Gordon. Denver is in nice spot against Golden State and my interest in Jokic will depend on the status of Murray, as I'm looking for upside above all else.
Forward:
Zion Williamson ($9,700)
Zion has been very impressive since returning from a three-game injury absence. He's put up 68.25 and 57.25 DK points in back-to-back games and it's only a matter of time before his salary reaches five figures. The Pelicans have a favorable matchup against the Kings.
Luka Doncic ($10,700)
Doncic continues to underwhelm, as he's topped 50 DK points in just four of his last 10 games and hasn't hit a ceiling game in that span either. If Porzingis were to rest then I might have some interest, but other than that he's just a leverage option and I wouldn't expect him to be overly popular in a tough matchup against the Sixers.
Expected Chalk
Brooklyn Nets
Bruce Brown ($4,800)
With James Harden and Kyrie Irving ruled out, Brown will likely see extended run at point guard. Tyler Johnson is also out, meaning the Nets are thin on the bench as well. I'd expect Brown to get the start but if for some reason it was Chris Chiozza ($3,100), he would be the chalk instead of Brown.
The starting lineup will dictate popularity on the rest of the Nets value. I'd expect Joe Harris ($5,600) and Jeff Green ($4,600) to be moderately popular but whoever starts at center in place of the resting LaMarcus Aldridge will be more appealing. Nicolas Claxton ($3,100) would be the chalk of the slate if he got the start while Blake Griffin ($4,500) has considerable upside for his salary if he were to play extended minutes.
Value Picks
Note: The Nets are among my top value picks but since I mentioned them in chalk, I'll highlight some guys that won't be quite as popular.
John Wall ($8,000)
Wall's salary is just too cheap for his upside. It's likely depressed because he continues to miss games but when he starts, he plays mid-30s minutes and gets all the usage he wants. Until his salary goes up, he's a good option regardless of matchup.
Jonas Valanciunas ($7,300)
Valanciunas has scored at least 40 DK points in three consecutive games and is coming off a whopping 69.5 yesterday. Recency bias will likely see his popularity rise in a favorable matchup against the Bulls.
Andre Drummond ($6,800)
Drummond has topped 35 DK points in consecutive games and his salary has dropped to a more favorable level. The matchup against the Knicks might not seem ideal, but the game staying competitive is more important than the total when it comes to Drummond as he has ceiling potential regardless.
Ja Morant ($6,800)
Morant has been disappointing this season, but his salary has dropped under 7K for the first time in 10 games. He's topped 35 DK points in three straight games and the depressed salary means he has considerable upside against the Bulls.
Joe Ingles ($5,700)
Ingles has scored at least 30 DK points in back-to-back games as he's seen increased run in the absence of Jordan Clarkson. With Clarkson likely out again and now Mike Conley out as well, Ingles should see plenty of minutes and usage to pay off his salary in a favorable matchup against the Wizards.
