This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Monday provides with a diverse complement of games, and we should be able to create a variety of lineup builds with elites and value plays from an assortment of fast-paced contests.
SLATE OVERVIEW
ORL (-7) vs. POR O/U: 223
NY (-10) vs. HOU O/U: 229.5
UTA (-8.5) @ CLE O/U: 219.5
MIL (-3.5) @ MIA O/U: 226.5
ATL (-2) vs. MEM O/U: 240.5
DAL (-3.5) @ CHI O/U: 224.5
IND (-2.5) @ SA O/U: 220.5
It's hard to beat the tempo of the MEM/ATL game, and as usual, the Rockets are going to speed things up with the Knicks. Due to the question marks surrounding Luka Doncic's status, I can't really make many calls in the DAL/CHI game until we get closer to tipoff.
INJURY SITUATIONS TO MONITOR
Luka Doncic (thumb) QUESTIONABLE
Doncic got the day off Sunday due to his thumb issue, and his current status is unclear. If he were to miss today's game, Delon Wright ($4,600) would be in line for another start. All of the starters got big boosts in Doncic's absence, so their value would come into play immediately.
Khris Middleton (neck) QUESTIONABLE
Donte DiVincenzo ($4,500) would draw the start if Middleton can't go, and Wesley Matthews ($3,400) should also see some additional time if Middleton is scratched.
LaMarcus Aldridge (shoulder) DOUBTFUL
Jakob Poeltl (knee) OUT
Boosts to all four starters Monday, and Trey Lyles ($4,800) emerges as a very chalky start. Rudy Gay ($4,300) is a riskier way to go, but he did surpass 30 DKFP in this scenario against Orlando.
Darius Garland (groin) OUT
This absence shouldn't factor heavily into our builds, but Matthew Dellavedova ($3,400) would likely draw the start here with Dante Exum (ankle) also out. Collin Sexton ($6,000) will shoulder a heavier load in the backcourt, and we may see some extra production from Kevin Porter ($4,900) as well.
Cam Reddish (back) QUESTIONABLE
Dewayne Dedmon (elbow) OUT
It's a high-paced game, so keep a close eye on Reddish's status as a pivot could be very valuable here. De'Andre Hunter ($5,000) could end up shifting over to the three in the starting lineup, but I wouldn't venture too far beyond him. Bruno Fernando ($3,400) will draw the start at center in Dedmon's place.
ELITE PLAYERS
Let's discuss Milwaukee a bit before we begin. Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400) is almost prohibitively priced, but the potential absence of Khris Middleton adds an additional wrinkle into Giannis' viability. Without Middleton on the floor, Giannis' usage almost hits a whopping 40 percent, and he also spits out about two DKFP per minute in this scenario. If Middleton sits, you have to consider spending up here.
James Harden, HOU ($10,500) @ NY
Harden threw up 61 DKFP against the Knicks in their last matchup, and I see no reason why he can't put up a similar number at MSG tonight. I have no problem with using him as a cash or tournament core, and I think there's enough value on this slate to grab him and an additional elite.
Trae Young, ATL ($10,400) vs. MEM
The pace of this game is listed as one of the fastest we'll see all season (240 O/U), and the battle between Young and Ja Morant ($7,200) should be fun to watch. I'm actually OK with either point guard, but Young possesses explosiveness that Morant produces with less frequency. We have no game history for either player, so it's tough to tell how the backcourt will factor in, but both point guards should be in line to meet value.
CJ McCollum, POR ($9,300) @ ORL
McCollum is working overtime without Damian Lillard and, despite the hefty price, I can still justify an add for McCollum in an underdog game on the road. He's averaged almost 56 DKFP over the past five games, and if he can get going from beyond the arc, he should have no problem getting close to that number again. He shot 50 percent from long range on the way to a 50 DKFP score against the Magic in their last matchup.
John Collins, ATL ($8,900) vs. MEM
Sorry, I know I threw a lot of elite guards your way, so it only makes sense to headline this fast-paced game again and list Collins as my favorite big man in the contest. The Grizzlies are a bit understaffed in the frontcourt with both Jaren Jackson and Brandon Clarke out for extended periods, and Collins has posted 46-plus DKFP over his past three games, achieving the same in six of his last 10. Again, we have no game history, but Collins should still rule the frontcourt for the Hawks until Clint Capela returns.
Domantas Sabonis, IND ($8,800) @ SA
With LaMarcus Aldridge and Jakob Poeltl out, the Spurs are vulnerable up front, putting Sabonis in a plum position Monday. He's in the midst of a three-game tear during which he's averaging 51 DKFP per contest. Sabonis' four-position eligibility makes him easy to fit into a variety of builds, and I'll probably give him 50 percent exposure in my builds as a result.
Also consider: Luka Doncic ($10,300), if he plays. If he doesn't, then Kristaps Porzingis ($8,600) emerges as a target you can't ignore, especially after his 76 DKFP performance against Minnesota in Luka's absence.
EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS
Elfrid Payton, NY ($6,700) vs. HOU
The Rockets are explosive offensively but abysmal on defense, although the addition of Robert Covington elevates their resume in that department. Payton's numbers have jumped around a bit, but he plays markedly better at home and displays remarkable consistency in this assist column. His 19.3 percent usage rate isn't quite where I'd like it to be, but at $6,700, he can reach value with the positive pace differential of this contest.
Jonas Valanciunas, MEM ($6,800) @ ATL
Valanciunas will line up opposite Bruno Fernando in Atlanta tonight, so he'll have a significant size and experience advantage in this fast-paced contest. He's hovered around 50 DKFP over his past two games, which is likely due to the increased pressure he's under as he tries to shore up their decimated frontcourt. Valanciunas is a first-half player who tends to fade down the stretch, but as long as he sees 30 or more minutes, he should have no trouble meeting value at this price.
Robert Covington, HOU ($6,200) @ NY
The Knicks rank near the bottom of the league in wing defense, and for the most part, Houston's small-ball approach has turned into a successful experiment, due in large part to Covington. His defensive measurables don't translate into DFS numbers, but as he demonstrated against the Celtics, he can combine his pure shooting with an impressive showing off the glass on almost any given night. With the Knicks allowing an average of 38.4 FP to his position, Monday could be one of those nights where Covington stuffs all aspects of his game into the box score.
Also consider: DeMar DeRozan, SA ($7,500) vs. IND, Eric Bledsoe, MIL ($6,500) @ MIA
VALUE PLAYS
As per usual, a lot of my value plays exist in the injury section. Trey Lyles and Collin Sexton are my top two from that group, followed by Kevin Porter.
Goran Dragic, MIA ($5,500) vs. MIL
Although Dragic and Kendrick Nunn ($5,400) can be a frustrating combo to figure out, I think Dragic's experience is better suited against the Bucks, and he's already demonstrated an affinity for playing against them. He put up 46 DKFP in their last matchup despite a less-than-stellar shooting night, so who knows what he can accomplish if his shot warms up.
Dillon Brooks, MEM ($5,300) @ ATL
Although a host of players have come to the rescue to prop up Memphis' interior game, Brooks is easily the most recognizable name of the bunch, and he still clocks in at a very reasonable price despite the increased workload. The improved play of De'Anthony Melton ($4,400) has allowed Brooks to cede some of the backcourt duties so that he can focus on helping out at the wing, and he's put up DKFP totals as high as 41 in recent games. He's also registered some clunkers, but they occurred against the Lakers and Clippers. The Hawks aren't even on the same planet defensively.
Jordan Clarkson, UTA ($5,100) @ CLE
I think we're allowed to call this a bit of a revenge game for Clarkson. He came over to Utah from Cleveland earlier this season, and he's settled nicely into a second-unit role where he's able to spell both Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell with equal ease. His floor sits just below 5x value, and he's shown the ability to exceed that threshold frequently in recent weeks with totals above 25 DKFP in six of his last 10 games. His experience against the Cavs should allow him for a few more minutes of playing time tonight.
D.J. Augustin, ORL ($3,200) vs. POR
Although Markelle Fultz is the point guard of the future, Augustin is still in Orlando as a viable backup and now that he's returned to the lineup, he should be able to generate encouraging results at this exceedingly low price. Fultz is also streaky and can run cold at any given moment, and Augustin's numbers have slowly trended up since his return five games ago. He's a reach, but his ability to save you money makes him a bit better than a punt play.
Also consider: Mitchell Robinson, NY ($5,500) vs. HOU
