Charles Lee Is Winning More Than His COTY Odds Suggest, But the Trophy Is Still Out of Reach

Charles Lee has engineered one of the more compelling turnarounds in recent NBA history, yet his +20000 odds for Coach of the Year at DraftKings accurately reflect where he stands relative to the award's historical benchmarks.

In his first season at the helm, Lee guided the Charlotte Hornets to a 19-63 record -- a difficult debut shaped in large part by LaMelo Ball's limited availability. In Year 2, the Hornets have already secured a winning season and, with two regular season games remaining, project to finish around 44 or 45 wins. That represents an improvement of roughly 24-25 wins -- above the average wins improvement of +18.5 recorded by the last 15 Coach of the Year recipients.

That number is the most favorable data point in Lee's case. The problem is every other benchmark.

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Analysis

Coach of the Year — Wins Improvement

Last 15 COY recipients vs. Charles Lee 2025–26

+18.5

Avg COY wins improvement

+24

Charles Lee (proj.)

57.7

Avg COY wins total

~43

Lee proj. wins total

COY winners (2010–11 to 2024–25)

Charles Lee 2025–26 (proj.)

15-yr avg (+18.5)

COY wins improvement: past 15 winners averaged +18.5; Charles Lee projects to +24.

Note: COY winners from 2009–10 through 2024–25. Wins improvement calculated vs. the prior full season for each coach's team. Lee's 2025–26 total is projected based on current record (43–36) with games remaining. The 2015–16 Steve Kerr season reflects team wins; Kerr missed 43 games due to injury.  |  Source: NBA.com, Basketball-Reference

Where Charles Lee's COTY Case Falls Short

Over the same 15-year window, the average NBA Coach of the Year guided his team to 57.7 wins and an average playoff seed of 1.7. Charlotte is hovering around the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference, roughly 14 wins below the historical baseline and far removed from the top-seed profile that defines the archetype voters reliably reward. Kenny Atkinson set the template last season with Cleveland: 64 wins, the No. 1 seed in the East, a 16-game improvement.

Lee's candidacy leans on relative expectations -- Charlotte was projected for sub-30 wins -- and a genuine second-half surge that ranks among the league's best stretches since January. Both are legitimate arguments. Tom Thibodeau won the award with 41 wins in 2020-21; Mike Brown took it with 48 in Sacramento. 

Precedent for non-top-seed winners exists, but it is the exception, not the rule.

Can Last Couple Games Make Case?

The Hornets' final two games offer a chance to pad the win total further, but no realistic outcome changes the seeding math. Lee is building something real in Charlotte. The award simply wasn't built for where they are yet.

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