This article is part of our Weekly Pitcher Rankings series.
I've been thinking a lot about playing time lately. Skills projections are more science than art, but playing time lacks the same reliance on science. The focus is on the player's history, as opposed to how the entire field of players responds to a certain level of recent playing time.
History demonstrates players with "X" years of "Y" innings rarely come close to recent totals, yet we project the high totals. The same is true for batters and plate appearances.
Things can change, but with only two weeks left in the season, we're looking at an inordinate number of pitchers with at least 30 starts. Here is last season's distribution:
GS | No. of pitchers |
---|---|
33 | 4 |
32 | 17 |
31 | 13 |
30 | 9 |
Total | 43 |
Including this weekend, there are 16 more days in the season, so the maximum number of remaining starts is three, with the slim chance of four. To reach 30, a hurler needs to currently be at 27.
GS | No. of pitchers |
---|---|
31 | 5 |
30 | 9 |
29 | 17 |
28 | 14 |
27 | 13 |
Total | 58 |
There is a chance a handful of pitchers start 34 games. There will almost no doubt be more than last season's four with 33 starts and 17 with 32 starts. Granted, innings are important too, but those are also tracking higher in this group. Projecting the number of starts for some pitchers in 2024 is going to be challenging.
As for this week, there are 95 games, a bit more than an average
I've been thinking a lot about playing time lately. Skills projections are more science than art, but playing time lacks the same reliance on science. The focus is on the player's history, as opposed to how the entire field of players responds to a certain level of recent playing time.
History demonstrates players with "X" years of "Y" innings rarely come close to recent totals, yet we project the high totals. The same is true for batters and plate appearances.
Things can change, but with only two weeks left in the season, we're looking at an inordinate number of pitchers with at least 30 starts. Here is last season's distribution:
GS | No. of pitchers |
---|---|
33 | 4 |
32 | 17 |
31 | 13 |
30 | 9 |
Total | 43 |
Including this weekend, there are 16 more days in the season, so the maximum number of remaining starts is three, with the slim chance of four. To reach 30, a hurler needs to currently be at 27.
GS | No. of pitchers |
---|---|
31 | 5 |
30 | 9 |
29 | 17 |
28 | 14 |
27 | 13 |
Total | 58 |
There is a chance a handful of pitchers start 34 games. There will almost no doubt be more than last season's four with 33 starts and 17 with 32 starts. Granted, innings are important too, but those are also tracking higher in this group. Projecting the number of starts for some pitchers in 2024 is going to be challenging.
As for this week, there are 95 games, a bit more than an average period. When in doubt, keep in mind rotations will be in greater flux next week with some starters being shut down, or held back for the playoffs, so this is the time to pull out all of the stops.
As always, the schedules are pulled from the Probable Starters page, so please direct questions in that direction. I'm happy to address rankings inquiries below.
UPDATED: Monday September 18, 12:20 AM ET
Week of Sept. 18-24
Mixed
Rank | Pitcher | TM | OPP | Comments |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Spencer Strider | ATL | PHI, @WAS | |
2 | Freddy Peralta | MIL | @STL, @MIA | 2.55 ERA and .51 WHIP with 23 K and 1 BB over last 17.2 IP |
3 | Justin Verlander | HOU | BAL, KC | |
4 | Brandon Woodruff | MIL | @MIA | |
5 | Tarik Skubal | DET | @OAK | |
6 | Framber Valdez | HOU | KC | |
7 | Luis Castillo | SEA | @OAK | |
8 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | @ATL, NYM | Risky rematch vs. Braves, but needs to make a statement for the playoffs |
9 | Blake Snell | SD | COL | |
10 | Zac Gallen | ARI | SF | |
11 | Corbin Burnes | MIL | @STL | |
12 | Max Fried | ATL | @WAS | Missing time has him fresh down the stretch |
13 | Tyler Glasnow | TB | TOR | |
14 | Zach Eflin | TB | LAA | |
15 | Pablo Lopez | MIN | LAA | |
16 | Gerrit Cole | NYY | TOR | |
17 | Eduardo Rodriguez | DET | @LAD, @OAK | |
18 | Sonny Gray | MIN | LAA | |
19 | Justin Steele | CHC | PIT | |
20 | George Kirby | SEA | @OAK | |
21 | Kevin Gausman | TOR | @NYY | |
22 | Kodai Senga | NYM | @MIA | |
23 | Logan Webb | SF | @ARI | |
24 | Joe Ryan | MIN | @CIN, LAA | |
25 | Bobby Miller | LAD | DET | |
26 | Chris Bassitt | TOR | @ TB | |
27 | Jose Berrios | TOR | @NYY | |
28 | Cristopher Sanchez | PHI | NYM | Deserves better than a 2-4 record |
29 | Merrill Kelly | ARI | SF | |
30 | Aaron Civale | TB | LAA | |
31 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | BOS, SEA | |
32 | Tanner Bibee | CLE | BAL | |
33 | Jordan Montgomery | TEX | BOS, SEA | Rangers leaning on him to turn around with Scherzer out |
34 | Clayton Kershaw | LAD | SF | |
35 | Lance Lynn | LAD | DET, SF | Allowing homers is not a good thing |
36 | Kyle Bradish | BAL | @HOU | Good rehearsal for playoff ball |
37 | Lucas Giolito | CLE | @ KC | |
38 | Charlie Morton | ATL | @WAS | |
39 | Braxton Garrett | MIA | NYM | |
40 | Ryan Pepiot | LAD | DET, SF | Outpitching peripherals, but good home matchups |
41 | Michael King | NYY | TOR | |
42 | Reid Detmers | LAA | @ TB | |
43 | JP Sears | OAK | SEA, DET | |
44 | Jesus Luzardo | MIA | MIL | |
45 | Hyun Jin Ryu | TOR | @ TB | |
46 | Bryan Woo | SEA | @OAK, @TEX | |
47 | Chris Sale | BOS | CWS | |
48 | Hunter Greene | CIN | MIN | |
49 | Mitch Keller | PIT | @CHC | |
50 | Seth Lugo | SD | COL | |
51 | Griffin Canning | LAA | @ TB | |
52 | Jordan Wicks | CHC | COL | |
53 | Yusei Kikuchi | TOR | @NYY, @ TB | |
54 | Andrew Abbott | CIN | PIT | |
55 | Zack Littell | TB | TOR | |
56 | Javier Assad | CHC | PIT, COL | |
57 | Reese Olson | DET | @LAD | |
58 | Brayan Bello | BOS | @TEX | |
59 | Wade Miley | MIL | @STL | |
60 | Kyle Hendricks | CHC | COL | |
61 | J.P. France | HOU | KC | |
62 | Bailey Ober | MIN | @CIN | |
63 | Joey Lucchesi | NYM | @MIA | |
64 | Mike Clevinger | CWS | @WAS, @BOS | |
65 | Ranger Suarez | PHI | NYM | |
66 | Kenta Maeda | MIN | @CIN | |
67 | Logan Gilbert | SEA | @TEX | |
68 | Eury Perez | MIA | NYM | |
69 | Michael Wacha | SD | COL, STL | |
70 | Bryce Elder | ATL | PHI | |
71 | Nick Pivetta | BOS | CWS | |
72 | Kutter Crawford | BOS | @TEX, CWS | |
73 | Logan Allen | CLE | @ KC | |
74 | Jose Quintana | NYM | @PHI | |
75 | Cal Quantrill | CLE | @ KC, BAL | |
76 | Sawyer Gipson-Long | DET | @OAK | |
77 | Tanner Houck | BOS | @TEX | |
78 | Jameson Taillon | CHC | PIT | |
79 | Mix 12 Reliever | |||
80 | Cole Ragans | KC | @HOU | |
81 | Gavin Williams | CLE | BAL | |
82 | Patrick Sandoval | LAA | @ TB | |
83 | Chase Silseth | LAA | @MIN | |
84 | Mix 15 Reliever | |||
85 | Taj Bradley | TB | LAA, TOR | |
86 | Shane Bieber | CLE | BAL | |
87 | Clarke Schmidt | NYY | TOR, ARI | |
88 | Aaron Nola | PHI | @ATL | |
89 | Cristian Javier | HOU | BAL | |
90 | Carlos Rodon | NYY | ARI | |
91 | Hunter Brown | HOU | BAL | |
92 | Taijuan Walker | PHI | NYM | |
93 | Ben Lively | CIN | MIN, PIT | |
94 | Tyler Anderson | LAA | @MIN | |
95 | Joe Boyle | OAK | DET | |
96 | John Means | BAL | @HOU, @CLE | |
97 | Bailey Falter | PIT | @CHC | |
98 | Kyle Wright | ATL | PHI, @WAS | |
99 | Grayson Rodriguez | BAL | @CLE | |
100 | Edward Cabrera | MIA | NYM, MIL | |
101 | Bryce Miller | SEA | @TEX | |
102 | Johan Oviedo | PIT | @CIN | |
103 | Adrian Houser | MIL | @STL, @MIA | |
104 | Ken Waldichuk | OAK | DET | |
105 | Dane Dunning | TEX | SEA | |
106 | Sean Manaea | SF | @LAD | |
107 | Alex Cobb | SF | @ARI, @LAD | |
108 | Chase Anderson | COL | @ SD | |
109 | Jose Butto | NYM | @MIA, @PHI | |
110 | Alex Faedo | DET | @LAD | |
111 | Gavin Stone | LAD | SF | |
112 | Connor Seabold | COL | @ SD | |
113 | Brandon Williamson | CIN | PIT | |
114 | Keaton Winn | SF | @LAD | |
115 | Dean Kremer | BAL | @CLE | |
116 | Michael Lorenzen | PHI | @ATL | |
117 | Miles Mikolas | STL | MIL | |
118 | Brandon Pfaadt | ARI | @NYY | |
119 | Randy Vasquez | NYY | ARI | |
120 | Josiah Gray | WAS | CWS | |
121 | Dakota Hudson | STL | @ SD | |
122 | Kyle Gibson | BAL | @HOU | |
123 | Dylan Cease | CWS | @BOS | |
124 | Brady Singer | KC | CLE, @HOU | |
125 | Johnny Cueto | MIA | MIL | |
126 | Jon Gray | TEX | BOS | |
127 | Ryan Feltner | COL | @CHC | |
128 | Ty Blach | COL | @ SD, @CHC | |
129 | Ross Stripling | SF | @LAD | |
130 | Joey Wentz | DET | @OAK | |
131 | Drew Rom | STL | MIL, @ SD | |
132 | Zack Greinke | KC | CLE | |
133 | Ryne Nelson | ARI | @NYY | |
134 | Connor Phillips | CIN | MIN | |
135 | Kenny Rosenberg | LAA | @MIN | |
136 | Luis Ortiz | PIT | @CIN | |
137 | David Peterson | NYM | @PHI | |
138 | Alec Marsh | KC | CLE | |
139 | Jack Flaherty | BAL | @CLE | |
140 | Jordan Lyles | KC | @HOU | |
141 | Jose Urena | CWS | @WAS | |
142 | Paul Blackburn | OAK | SEA | |
143 | Luis Medina | OAK | DET | |
144 | Zach Davies | ARI | @NYY | |
145 | Matt Waldron | SD | STL | |
146 | Andre Jackson | PIT | @CIN | |
147 | Chris Flexen | COL | @CHC | |
148 | Pedro Avila | SD | STL | |
149 | Zack Thompson | STL | MIL | |
150 | Jake Irvin | WAS | ATL | |
151 | Quinn Priester | PIT | @CHC | |
152 | Joan Adon | WAS | CWS, ATL | |
153 | Jesse Scholtens | CWS | @WAS | |
154 | Jackson Rutledge | WAS | CWS | |
155 | Adam Wainwright | STL | MIL, @ SD | Rooting for No. 200 |
156 | Touki Toussaint | CWS | @BOS | |
157 | Tylor Megill | NYM | @PHI | |
158 | Kyle Muller | OAK | SEA | |
159 | Patrick Corbin | WAS | ATL | |
160 | Trevor Williams | WAS | ATL |
American League
National League
Rank | Pitcher | TM | OPP | Comment |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Spencer Strider | ATL | PHI, @WAS | |
2 | Freddy Peralta | MIL | @STL, @MIA | 2.55 ERA and .51 WHIP with 23 K and 1 BB over last 17.2 IP |
3 | Brandon Woodruff | MIL | @MIA | |
4 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | @ATL, NYM | Risky rematch vs. Braves, but needs to make a statement for the playoffs |
5 | Blake Snell | SD | COL | |
6 | Zac Gallen | ARI | SF | |
7 | Corbin Burnes | MIL | @STL | |
8 | Max Fried | ATL | @WAS | Missing time has him fresh down the stretch |
9 | Justin Steele | CHC | PIT | |
10 | Kodai Senga | NYM | @MIA | |
11 | Logan Webb | SF | @ARI | |
12 | Bobby Miller | LAD | DET | |
13 | Cristopher Sanchez | PHI | NYM | Deserves better than a 2-4 record |
14 | Merrill Kelly | ARI | SF | |
15 | Clayton Kershaw | LAD | SF | |
16 | Lance Lynn | LAD | DET, SF | Allowing homers is not a good thing |
17 | Charlie Morton | ATL | @WAS | |
18 | Braxton Garrett | MIA | NYM | |
19 | Ryan Pepiot | LAD | DET, SF | Outpitching peripherals, but good home matchups |
20 | Jesus Luzardo | MIA | MIL | |
21 | Hunter Greene | CIN | MIN | |
22 | Mitch Keller | PIT | @CHC | |
23 | Seth Lugo | SD | COL | |
24 | Jordan Wicks | CHC | COL | |
25 | Andrew Abbott | CIN | PIT | |
26 | Javier Assad | CHC | PIT, COL | |
27 | Wade Miley | MIL | @STL | |
28 | Kyle Hendricks | CHC | COL | |
29 | Joey Lucchesi | NYM | @MIA | |
30 | Ranger Suarez | PHI | NYM | |
31 | Eury Perez | MIA | NYM | |
32 | Michael Wacha | SD | COL, STL | |
33 | Bryce Elder | ATL | PHI | |
34 | Jose Quintana | NYM | @PHI | |
35 | Jameson Taillon | CHC | PIT | |
36 | Aaron Nola | PHI | @ATL | |
37 | Taijuan Walker | PHI | NYM | |
38 | Ben Lively | CIN | MIN, PIT | |
39 | NL Reliever | |||
40 | Bailey Falter | PIT | @CHC | |
41 | Kyle Wright | ATL | PHI, @WAS | |
42 | Edward Cabrera | MIA | NYM, MIL | |
43 | Johan Oviedo | PIT | @CIN | |
44 | Adrian Houser | MIL | @STL, @MIA | |
45 | Sean Manaea | SF | @LAD | |
46 | Alex Cobb | SF | @ARI, @LAD | |
47 | Chase Anderson | COL | @ SD | |
48 | Jose Butto | NYM | @MIA, @PHI | |
49 | Gavin Stone | LAD | SF | |
50 | Connor Seabold | COL | @ SD | |
51 | Brandon Williamson | CIN | PIT | |
52 | Keaton Winn | SF | @LAD | |
53 | Michael Lorenzen | PHI | @ATL | |
54 | Miles Mikolas | STL | MIL | |
55 | Brandon Pfaadt | ARI | @NYY | |
56 | Josiah Gray | WAS | CWS | |
57 | Dakota Hudson | STL | @ SD | |
58 | Johnny Cueto | MIA | MIL | |
59 | Ryan Feltner | COL | @CHC | |
60 | Ty Blach | COL | @ SD, @CHC | |
61 | Ross Stripling | SF | @LAD | |
62 | Drew Rom | STL | MIL, @ SD | |
63 | Ryne Nelson | ARI | @NYY | |
64 | Connor Phillips | CIN | MIN | |
65 | Luis Ortiz | PIT | @CIN | |
66 | David Peterson | NYM | @PHI | |
67 | Zach Davies | ARI | @NYY | |
68 | Matt Waldron | SD | STL | |
69 | Andre Jackson | PIT | @CIN | |
70 | Chris Flexen | COL | @CHC | |
71 | Pedro Avila | SD | STL | |
72 | Zack Thompson | STL | MIL | |
73 | Jake Irvin | WAS | ATL | |
74 | Quinn Priester | PIT | @CHC | |
75 | Joan Adon | WAS | CWS, ATL | |
76 | Jackson Rutledge | WAS | CWS | |
77 | Adam Wainwright | STL | MIL, @ SD | Rooting for No. 200 |
78 | Tylor Megill | NYM | @PHI | |
79 | Patrick Corbin | WAS | ATL | |
80 | Trevor Williams | WAS | ATL |