Top MLB Betting Picks for April 15: MLB Same-Game Parlays and Props
2026 Regular-Season Betting Record: 0-3
2026 Regular-Season Player Props Betting Record: 0-3
The final game of this three-game series has plenty of star power on the mound, as Clay Holmes faces off with Shohei Ohtani.
Without further ado, let's examine a same-game parlay and a player prop for tonight's game:
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MLB Picks for Mets at Dodgers
- SGP: Dodgers +0.5 and Under 3.5 Runs- F5 (-115 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Shohei Ohtani Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+118 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers Best Bets
The Mets have been a significant disappointment over the first three weeks of the season and sit at the bottom of the NL East with a 7-11 mark. But Holmes has been one of the few legitimate bright spots. The veteran right-hander enters Wednesday's showdown with Ohtani in very good form, having posted a 2-1 record, 1.50 ERA and 1.11 WHIP across the 18 innings covering his first three starts. He's allowed just a single ball to leave the yard during that span as well, and he holds a 1.42 ERA and 2-0 mark on the road.
Holmes' advanced metrics appear to largely corroborate the legitimacy of his surface numbers. The 33-year-old has a 3.59 xERA – notably higher than his conventional 1.50 figure but still very respectable – and he's surrendering a minuscule 3.8 percent barrel rate and modest 36.5 percent hard-hit rate, per Statcast. Holmes is also conceding a .238 xBA and paltry .345 xSLG, so hitters aren't exactly squaring up on him very often. His track record against current Dodgers hitters is favorable as well, as he's held their talented array of bats to a collective .162 average and .539 OPS across 44 career encounters, recording 12 Ks along the way.
Ohtani is off to a strong start in his own right as both batter and pitcher, posting a 1-0 record, spotless ERA and 0.75 WHIP in the 12 innings covering his first two starts. He's scattered five hits along the way, and he's pitched to a .191 xBA and tiny 2.9 percent barrel rate as well. The veteran righty has also always been a tough pitcher to get to early in games, as he boasts .208, .181 and .174 batting averages allowed in the first, second and third innings, respectively, over the course of his career. Ohtani has also frequently stymied the current Mets hitters he's faced before – the notable trio of Bo Bichette, Luis Robert and Marcus Semien – holding them to a collective .222 average and .333 slugging percentage in 41 career plate appearances.
Given the caliber of both arms and the struggles of the Mets offense at the moment – New York is averaging the fifth-fewest runs per game (3.5) while stranding the 11th-most runners in scoring position per contest as well (3.7) – and Holmes' past success versus Los Angeles, I'm going with a same-game parlay of a relatively low-scoring first three frames and a bet on the Dodgers being tied at worst.
Then, even though New York is struggling to push runs across, the Mets have actually been making frequent contact against righties, posting an acceptable 20.5 percent strikeout rate against righties. Ohtani's strikeout numbers are also down over his first two starts, as he has just a 17.0 percent strikeout rate in the early going. Consequently, I'll go with the Under at plus money on his 6.5-strikeout prop.
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MLB Picks Recap
- SGP: Dodgers +0.5 and Under 3.5 Runs- F5 (-115 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Shohei Ohtani Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+118 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
