Team Previews: AL Central

Team Previews: AL Central

This article is part of our MLB Team Previews series.

American League Central Team Previews

Editor's Note: Click on a team under Projected Final Standings to jump to that particular team's rundown.

Projected Final Standings

Kansas City Royals: 88-74
Cleveland Indians: 85-77
Detroit Tigers: 82-80
Chicago White Sox: 80-82
Minnesota Twins: 74-88

Kansas City Royals

State of the Franchise

The Royals have won two straight American League Championships and just won their first World Series in exactly 30 years in 2015. It's a great time to be a Royals fan, but even with the hardware, this roster is struggling to garner respect from projection systems. The Royals did lose some major pieces -- Johnny Cueto, Ben Zobrist, Alex Rios and Ryan Madson left via free agency, and Greg Holland is out for the season with an elbow injury -- but the core of the lineup remains. Haven't we learned our lesson about this team yet?

I look at this roster on paper and I totally understand why systems like PECOTA see a losing team. Kansas City's rotation is extremely shallow, with Volquez at the top and free agent retread Ian Kennedy checking in as the No. 3 starter. The bullpen won't be as deep as it has been in the past, and the Royals have major holes at right field and second base. But this is a weak division and pundits have been made to look like fools by this core for two straight years. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me

American League Central Team Previews

Editor's Note: Click on a team under Projected Final Standings to jump to that particular team's rundown.

Projected Final Standings

Kansas City Royals: 88-74
Cleveland Indians: 85-77
Detroit Tigers: 82-80
Chicago White Sox: 80-82
Minnesota Twins: 74-88

Kansas City Royals

State of the Franchise

The Royals have won two straight American League Championships and just won their first World Series in exactly 30 years in 2015. It's a great time to be a Royals fan, but even with the hardware, this roster is struggling to garner respect from projection systems. The Royals did lose some major pieces -- Johnny Cueto, Ben Zobrist, Alex Rios and Ryan Madson left via free agency, and Greg Holland is out for the season with an elbow injury -- but the core of the lineup remains. Haven't we learned our lesson about this team yet?

I look at this roster on paper and I totally understand why systems like PECOTA see a losing team. Kansas City's rotation is extremely shallow, with Volquez at the top and free agent retread Ian Kennedy checking in as the No. 3 starter. The bullpen won't be as deep as it has been in the past, and the Royals have major holes at right field and second base. But this is a weak division and pundits have been made to look like fools by this core for two straight years. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. I won't get fooled again. Their margin for error is slimmer than last year, but I expect the Royals to at least compete for a wild card slot again in 2016.

Pitcher to Watch

Wade Davis became the first pitcher in major league history to record two seasons with at least 50 innings pitched and an ERA of 1.00 or lower in 2015, as he allowed just seven earned runs in 67.1 innings. There's an argument to be made that Davis's past two seasons are the best we've ever seen from any individual relief pitcher. He has allowed just three home runs over those two years with 187 strikeouts against 43 walks. He has no weaknesses and is almost impossible to square up. The Royals' bullpen is going to lack the depth it has had in previous seasons, but with Davis waiting to close, teams know they're going to have to find a way to get the lead in the first eight innings against Kansas City.

Hitter to Watch

The Royals' success over the past two years has done a fantastic job of masking the fact that Eric Hosmer has utterly failed to develop into the power slugging first baseman people expected he'd become as a prospect. Hosmer failed to reach 20 home runs for the fifth time in five major league seasons. Hosmer hit .297/.363/.459 last year and finished with a career high 122 OPS+, but considering the average AL first baseman hit .254/.330/.444 and hit 26 home runs per 650 plate appearances, Hosmer isn't giving much more than league average at the plate these days. He's just 26, and his best power days may be ahead of him, but until he shows he's more than a glorified gap-to-gap hitter, he's a mediocre fantasy first baseman.

Projected Lineup

vs. RHP

Alcides Escobar (SS)
Lorenzo Cain (CF)
Eric Hosmer (1B)
Kendrys Morales (DH)
Mike Moustakas (3B)
Salvador Perez (C)
Alex Gordon (LF)
Omar Infante (2B)
*Jarrod Dyson (RF) (will be replaced by Paulo Orlando to start the year)

vs. LHP

Alcides Escobar (SS)
Lorenzo Cain (CF)
Eric Hosmer (1B)
Kendrys Morales (DH)
Mike Moustakas (3B)
Salvador Perez (C)
Alex Gordon (LF)
Omar Infante (2B)
*Jarrod Dyson (RF)

Projected Rotation

Edinson Volquez
Yordano Ventura
Ian Kennedy
Kris Medlen
Danny Duffy

Bullpen Hierarchy

Closer: Wade Davis
Setup: Kelvin Herrera, Luke Hochevar
Middle Relief: Joakim Soria, Tim Collins

Riser

Lorenzo Cain had all of 17 home runs in five previous MLB seasons heading into 2015, and just 49 in over 700 games and 3,000 minor league plate appearances. Last year, he exploded for a career high 16 homers in 140 games as he set or tied career highs across the 5x5 statistical board (101 runs scored, 72 RBI, 28 steals, .307 batting average). Cain is more of a line drive hitter than a power hitter and it wouldn't be a surprise if he dipped back into single digits in 2016, but the way he hit the ball with authority has him poised to move into the heart of Kansas City's lineup, and that means those gains he made in runs scored and RBI should remain. His ability to run and hit for average make him worthwhile even if the power slips; if it sticks, he's one of the best all-around outfielders in the game.

Faller

Edinson Volquez has been walking a tightrope the past few years with his shaky control. He has walked at least three batters per nine innings in every season of his career, and 2015 was the first time he struck out more than twice as many batters as he walked since 2008. Volquez is just two seasons removed from leading the National League in earned runs, when he posted a 5.71 ERA in 170.1 innings between the Padres and Dodgers. Volquez's peripherals over the past years have been closer to that of a 4.00 ERA pitcher than a 3.00 ERA pitcher. His stuff is nasty, but if his control slips at all, disaster could be on the horizon.

Sleeper

Mike Minor was ineffective in 2014 and didn't pitch at all in 2015, both due to a lingering shoulder injury. Dayton Moore taking a chance on an ex-Braves prospect is nothing new — see above — but Minor showed plenty in his Atlanta career to make him worth the spring training invite. Minor is only two years removed from a season in which he went 13-9, recorded a 3.21 ERA in 204.2 innings and struck out 8.0 batters per nine innings. His career numbers are a bit underwhelming — 38-36, 4.10 ERA, 3.90 FIP and 7.8 K/9 in 110 career starts — but Minor is just 28 and is worth watching if he can sneak his way into the Royals' rotation.

Supersleeper

The Royals are shallow in the outfield this year, especially with Jarrod Dyson down with an oblique injury. That gives spring training invitee Travis Snider a decent shot at making the roster and working his way into some playing time. Every time Snider has managed to earn at least 300 plate appearances, he has topped double-digit home runs. With the weak competition he faces in the Royals' outfield, a good spring training would set him up nicely for plenty of at-bats in 2016.

Cleveland Indians

State of the Franchise

Cleveland is working on three straight winning seasons but hasn't seen the divisional round of the playoffs since 2007. 2016 is seen as their best chance to reverse that trend in a while. They've already suffered some blows, however, as Michael Brantley is out with a shoulder injury and Abraham Almonte will miss 80 games for a performance enhancing drug suspension. But Cleveland has a strong young core, and if one or two of their role players can step up, they'll be in the thick of the race.

The addition of Francisco Lindor gives Cleveland a legitimate superstar to put with All-Stars like Brantley and Jason Kipnis. If Corey Kluber can return to form and if Cleveland gets some growth from pitchers like Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer, they could be a formidable team. But they are already dealing with injuries entering the season, are shallow in the outfield and at the corner positions, and have a lot of question marks between the rotation and the bullpen. Projection systems seem to love this roster, and they should be in the race, but I don't see enough here to definitively put them above either Detroit or Kansas City.

Pitcher to Watch

Carlos Carrasco was fantastic in his first full season as a starter, going 14-12 with a 3.63 ERA and 216 strikeouts in 30 starts. Add in 2014 and Carrasco has a 3.17 ERA with 356 strikeouts in his last 317.2 innings, making him a legitimate front-line starter. His peripherals are fantastic -- he struck out over a batter per inning again in 2015 and walked just 2.1 batters per nine innings, giving him a brilliant 2.84 FIP. Full seasons of players like Francisco Lindor, Juan Uribe and Rajai Davis should give Cleveland an improved defense over 2015 as well, so Carrasco could even improve on his brilliant breakout season.

Hitter to Watch

Francisco Lindor impressing in his rookie season was to be expected; the man has been topping prospect lists since Cleveland drafted him back in 2011. But despite the high expectations, Lindor's game was still more advanced than anybody could have expected out of the 21-year-old. Not only did he hit for a .313 average, he slugged 12 home runs in just 99 games and finished with a .482 slugging percentage and flashed well above-average defense at the game's second-toughest position. Lindor has already proven he can play at a superstar level. If he continues to grow -- and at 22, there's no reason why he can't -- he could be a perennial MVP candidate.

Projected Lineup

vs. RHP

Jason Kipnis (2B)
Francisco Lindor (SS)
Michael Brantley* (LF)
Carlos Santana (DH)
Yan Gomes (C)
Mike Napoli (1B)
Rajai Davis (CF)
Will Venable (RF)
Juan Uribe (3B)

*Brantley will be out until late May or early April and will likely be replaced by Colin Cowgill or Zach Walters until then.

vs. LHP

Jason Kipnis (2B)
Francisco Lindor (SS)
Michael Brantley* (LF)
Carlos Santana (DH)
Yan Gomes (C)
Mike Napoli (1B)
Rajai Davis (CF)
Lonnie Chisenhall (RF)
Juan Uribe (3B)

Projected Rotation

Corey Kluber
Danny Salazar
Carlos Carrasco
Trevor Bauer
Cody Anderson

Bullpen Hierarchy

Closer: Cody Allen
Setup: Bryan Shaw, Tommy Hunter
Middle Relief: Zach McAllister, Jeff Manship, Kyle Crockett

Riser

Jason Kipnis rebounded from a brutal 2014 and rediscovered his line drive swing, as he hit .303/.372/.451 in 141 games. While he finished with single digit home runs for the second consecutive year, Kipnis knocked 43 doubles and seven triples and scored 86 runs as a result. Kipnis doesn't hit enough flyballs to threaten 20 home runs any more, but chances are a few of those doubles and triples will turn into home runs in 2016 and return him to double digits. Even if it doesn't, he has found his ability to hit for average again and has stolen at least 12 bases in four straight seasons. That's more than enough to stand out in a shallow second base crop.

Faller

Carlos Santana was more or less the same player in 2015 as he was in 2014; what he lost in batting average (drop from .268 to .231) he made up with an increase in power (27 HR, 85 RBI in 2015 against 20 HR, 74 RBI in 2014). Even with the poor batting average, a persistent problem in Santana's career given his moderate strikeout rate and lack of speed, that power plays at most positions. Unfortunately, Santana lost both his third base and catcher eligibility in 2015, as he played 132 games at first base, 21 at DH and zero anywhere else. He's still worth rostering at first base, but American League first basemen hit 26 home runs and knocked in 84 runs per 650 plate appearances last year, and Santana's power won't stand out there like it did at third base (20 HR/650 PA average) or catcher (19 HR/650 PA).

Sleeper

The combination of Michael Brantley's injury and Abraham Almonte's suspension has opened up what seems like a sure Opening Day starting role for Rajai Davis, a sneaky pickup by Cleveland this offseason. He stole 18 bases in 112 games for Detroit last season after stealing at least 30 in each of the previous six years. Now that he has an inside track at a starting job, Davis has a great chance of getting back to 30. He was still a league average hitter in 2015 (.258/.306/.440), and his 11 triples suggest he still has the legs to be a menace on the bases.

Supersleeper

If Yan Gomes struggles again in 2015, backup catcher Roberto Perez did enough in 2015 to intrigue fantasy owners. In just 226 plate appearances, he hammered seven home runs and posted a sharp .750 OPS. His 28.3% strikeout rate means he won't hit for average, but he has excellent plate discipline and surprising power. Gomes was brutal last year, as he hit .231/.267/.391, and if Gomes can't turn that around, Perez could work his way into consistent at-bats, and if he does so, he could finish in the 15-20 home run range.

Detroit Tigers

State of the Franchise

The bottom fell out for the Tigers in 2015 after four straight American League Central championships, as they suffered their first losing season since 2008 and dropped to last in the division with a 74-87 record. Their 689 runs scored marked their worst offensive season since the legendarily awful 43-119 club in 2003, and their 803 runs allowed marked their worst since 2004. They made some big splashes in free agency by picking up Justin Upton and Jordan Zimmermann, but will it be enough to rebound?

If healthy, the Tigers have a better core of star players than anybody in the division, one that matches up with just about any team in the league. But they are going to be relying on a number of players over 30, and the odds that they can stay healthy for an entire season are slim. Chances are, they'll need to find a bench player or a back-of-the-rotation starter to step up and surprise if they're going to make a playoff run. If they catch fire in the first half, this is a team that could really beef itself up by filling holes in their rotation or lineup at the deadline and make a run at the playoffs, but if Justin Verlander fails to return to form or Miguel Cabrera gets hurt again, they'll be in big trouble.

Pitcher to Watch

Justin Verlander sliced over a run off his career-worst 4.54 ERA from 2014, as he posted a 3.38 mark in 20 starts after returning from a triceps injury that sidelined him to start the season. Verlander is now three seasons removed from his last full season of ace-level performance, and at 33 years old, injuries and declining stuff are ever pressing concerns. But Verlander was fantastic in his final 14 starts after getting his legs back under him last season, as he posted a 2.27 ERA with 91 strikeouts against just 20 walks in his final 99.1 innings. Verlander is coming into spring healthy for the first time in two years now, and that should give fantasy owners some confidence there's some of the old Verlander left in him yet.

Hitter to Watch

After a breakout 2014 season in which he hammered 23 home runs and posted a .315/.358/.553 batting line, J.D. Martinez had to confirm those gains were real. He had to reassure us pitchers wouldn't adjust and turn him back into the pumpkin that hit just .250/.272/.378 in 2013 for the Astros, as the strikeout issues that made Martinez an easy out in Houston remained even as he hammered home runs in Detroit. And while Martinez's average dropped to .282 and is unlikely to get back over .300 any time soon, he left no doubt about his mammoth power. Martinez slugged 38 home runs and actually saw his isolated power rise from .238 to .253. He set a career low in groundball rate (34.2 percent) and continues to make the most of it when he manages to make contact, which should put to rest any doubts that his strikeout issues will hamper him in the future.

Projected Lineup

vs. RHP

Ian Kinsler (2B)
Justin Upton (LF)
Miguel Cabrera (1B)
J.D. Martinez (RF)
Victor Martinez (DH)
Nick Castellanos (3B)
James McCann (C)
Jose Iglesias (SS)
Cameron Maybin (CF)

vs. LHP

Ian Kinsler (2B)
Justin Upton (LF)
Miguel Cabrera (1B)
J.D. Martinez (RF)
Victor Martinez (DH)
Nick Castellanos (3B)
James McCann (C)
Jose Iglesias (SS)
Cameron Maybin (CF)

Projected Rotation

Justin Verlander
Jordan Zimmermann
Anibal Sanchez
Mike Pelfrey
Daniel Norris

Bullpen Hierarchy

Closer: Francisco Rodriguez
Setup: Mark Lowe, Alex Wilson
Middle Relief: Justin Wilson, Drew VerHagen, Bruce Rondon

After giving saves to Joakim Soria, Bruce Rondon, Neftali Feliz and Alex Wilson last year, the Tigers added some stability to their bullpen with the acquisition of Francisco Rodriguez. K-Rod doesn't have a typical closer's repertoire any more — his fastball hovers in the low 90s and his real weapon is a nasty changeup — but it's hard to argue with the 82 saves he recorded in the past two years with the Brewers.

Riser

Cameron Maybin finally escaped from cavernous Petco Park in 2015 and promptly recorded his best MLB season at the plate, as he hit 10 home runs and stole 23 bases in 141 games with a respectable .267/.327/.370 line for the Braves. He did all of this in one of the major league's worst lineups, and a move to Detroit, where he can set the table from the bottom of the lineup for hitters like Justin Upton and Miguel Cabrera, should only help. When given starting at-bats, as he was in 2011, 2012 and 2015, Maybin has averaged just under 30 stolen bases per season. Look for the Tigers to utilize that speed and give him a bump in runs and RBI totals with their superior batting talent as well.

Faller

Anibal Sanchez saw his ERA jump from 2.43 in 2013 to 3.43 in 2014 and all the way to 4.99 in 2015. Sanchez turned 32 years old over the offseason, and it's hard to see how he's going to stem the tide. He relied on a minuscule 3.1% HR/FB to keep the floodgates from bursting in 2014, and in 2015, he allowed 29 home runs in just 25 starts. Not only did his HR/FB jump to 16 percent — nearly 1 in 6 flyballs he allowed left the yard — but he allowed almost exactly as many flyballs as groundballs after averaging 1.25 GB/FB for his career. Sanchez is coming into the season healthy and will probably have a rebound relative to his brutal 2015, but until Sanchez proves he can keep the ball in the yard, it's hard to expect him to be more than a league average starter at best.

Sleeper

Daniel Norris had successful throat surgery to combat thyroid cancer in the offseason and is now poised to win the Tigers' fifth starter job with a strong spring training. Norris reached the majors last year and posted a 3.75 ERA between the Blue Jays and Tigers but was shaky with control and command, as he served up nine home runs in just 60 innings (1.35 HR/9). Norris also recorded just a 6.8 K/9, a disappointing mark after he regularly struck out over a batter per inning throughout the minor leagues. But now Norris has experienced the show, and after a tumultuous year, he's cancer free and in a stable situation with the Tigers. He was competent even despite last year's struggles, and he has huge upside if he can rein in his control.

Supersleeper

Michael Fulmer was the prized piece the Tigers received from the Mets in the Yoenis Cespedes deal, and the supplemental first-round draft pick has a shot to work his way into the Tigers' rotation at some point this season, although he'll likely begin the year at Triple-A. Fulmer's big weapon is a fastball that touches the mid-90s as a starter, and he used that to post a 2.24 ERA in 22 starts last year, 21 of which were taken at the Double-A level, where the 21-year-old was over two years younger than the average player. There are concerns about the effort level of his delivery that have some expecting he'll wind up in the bullpen (and potentially as a closer), but for now, the Tigers look committed to trying him as a starter, and if he impresses early and the aging and suddenly shallow Tigers rotation suffers any injuries, he could be the one called up to fill the gap.

Chicago White Sox

State of the Franchise

Since winning the World Series in 2005, the White Sox have made the postseason just once and are now working on four losing seasons in the past six years. Ownership has faced accusations of cheapness, and after watching the White Sox once again sit largely idle in the free agent market with a payroll likely to once again rank in the bottom half of the league, it's easy to understand where miffed fans are coming from. Did the White Sox put enough around superstars Chris Sale and Jose Abreu, or are they going to waste another year of these stars' peaks?

Between Sale, Abreu, Jose Quintana, Carlos Rodon, Todd Frazier, David Robertson and Brett Lawrie, the White Sox might have the best core in the division. But the White Sox have some huge holes in their lineup, and their unwillingness to go out and get a player like Alex Gordon or Dexter Fowler to help beef up their outfield might cost them a chance at a playoff run. As is, there are just too many gaping holes on this roster to believe the star power will carry them through in 2016.

Pitcher to Watch

Carlos Rodon struggled through control issues in his rookie season but still managed a 3.75 ERA with 139 strikeouts in 139.1 innings -- not bad for a 22-year-old. Rodon induced swinging strikes on over 10 percent of his pitches and flashed a fastball that regularly touched the mid-90s (93.4 mph average). Rodon has already showed he can be a league average pitcher even if he has no idea where the ball is going. If he can harness his pitches and throw them with command? Look out, as he could very well join Chris Sale as another ace in the White Sox's rotation.

Hitter to Watch

Todd Frazier posted a mediocre .309 on-base percentage in 2015, but what he lacked in discipline he more than made up for with power, as he slammed 35 home runs and tied Mike Trout for fifth in the majors with 79 extra-base hits. Playing in Great American Ball Park certainly helped, but US Cellular field is one of the best parks for home run sluggers, so he shouldn't see much drop off there. Frazier now has 54 home runs and 33 stolen bases over the past two seasons, and it's practically impossible to find that kind of power-speed balance at the hot corner anywhere else.

Projected Lineup

vs. RHP

Adam Eaton (CF)
Melky Cabrera (LF)
Jose Abreu (DH)
Todd Frazier (3B)
Brett Lawrie (2B)
Adam LaRoche (1B)
Dioner Navarro (C)
Avisail Garcia (RF)
Jimmy Rollins (SS)

vs. LHP

Adam Eaton (CF)
Melky Cabrera (LF)
Jose Abreu (DH)
Todd Frazier (3B)
Brett Lawrie (2B)
Adam LaRoche (1B)
Dioner Navarro (C)
Avisail Garcia (RF)
Jimmy Rollins (SS)

Projected Rotation

Chris Sale
Jose Quintana
Carlos Rodon
John Danks
Mat Latos

Bullpen Hierarchy

Closer: David Robertson
Setup: Zach Duke, Jake Petricka, Nate Jones
Middle Relief: Scott Carroll, Zach Putnam, Dan Jennings

Riser

Adam Eaton was already an intriguing player after a 2014 season in which he stole 15 bags and hit a cool .300, but he had just four major league home runs in his first two seasons, covering nearly 200 games. Eaton hammered 14 home runs in 2015 and still hit a solid .287 with 18 stolen bases, a game changer for his value. No longer will he be a complete drag on power numbers, a critical improvement considering Eaton doesn't run enough to justify losing out on the home runs and RBI typically available from the outfield. And at the top of the White Sox's lineup, in front of Abreu and Frazier, Eaton should score runs early and often.

Faller

Melky Cabrera utterly dropped off the table in 2015, as his OPS dropped nearly 100 points from .808 to .709. He finished with a .273/.313/.394 line and was below replacement level according to FanGraphs. The White Sox made no effort to improve their outfield situation this offseason and Cabrera is still in line to start in left field, but he doesn't provide much fantasy value. He doesn't have the power to guarantee his excellent strikeout rate (12.9 percent in 2015) will translate to a great batting average, as he has hit between .270 and .280 in two of the past three seasons. When he hit .301/.351/.458 with 16 home runs for Toronto in 2014 it looked like the old Melky was back, but at this point mediocrity looks like Cabrera's ceiling.

Sleeper

Jimmy Rollins is a non-roster invitee to White Sox camp, but he's a lock to make the team and will likely usurp the starting job from Tyler Saladino. Rollins hit a brutal .224/.285/.358 last season but still managed 13 home runs, 12 stolen bases and 71 runs scored, solid marks among the shallow shortstop crop. A move to US Cellular Field should suit Rollins well, as he's a flyball hitter who could see balls that were caught on the deep warning tracks of Dodger Stadium fly out of the park this season. With the lack of options at shortstop, he's worth a flyer.

Supersleeper

Erik Johnson tweaked his mechanics to great results in Triple-A in 2015 last year, as he struck out 136 and recorded a 2.37 ERA in 132.2 innings in the minors last year. His MLB performance was shaky (3.34 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 35 innings but 17 walks and eight home runs allowed), but Johnson has a chance to work his way into the rotation in 2016, particularly if John Danks continues his run of uninspiring performances. He has an outside chance to make the rotation out of camp as well. Keep an eye on this former top prospect.

Minnesota Twins

State of the Franchise

The Twins gave their fans some hope in 2015 after four consecutive 90-loss seasons, as the infusion of young talent like Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario and Kyle Gibson helped the Twins compete into September. The Twins were certainly competing ahead of schedule -- not all the young players excelled, as Byron Buxton struggled, and the veterans around them lacked the star power necessary to reach the playoffs. The Twins went just 34-39 in the second half and need to keep improving before they are real contenders, but for the first time in about a half-decade, Twins fans can see the light at the end of the tunnel.

There is more potential in this Twins Opening Day lineup then there has been for a few years, but everything will have to go right for this team to turn into a competitive outfit in 2016. The rotation and bullpen are both shallow, and just about every one of Minnesota's young players will need to take a major step forward. That's simply too much to ask this quickly, even if the AL Central looks weak this season. While Minnesota won 83 games last year, they struggled in the second half and could see those growing pains continue with such a young roster.

Pitcher to Watch

Phil Hughes didn't have his fastball last year, as his velocity dropped to a career low 90.7 mph after three consecutive years above 92.0. He still showed impeccable control, but without the heat, Hughes had no chance of keeping the ball in the yards, as he served up 29 home runs in just 25 starts, a 1.7 HR/9. Home runs have always been a problem for Hughes, whose fastball is straight as a string and is punished when he leaves it over the heart of the plate. He finished with a 4.40 ERA last season, nearly a full run worse than his solid 2014 debut with the Twins. Hughes dealt with a back injury for much of the season. If he shows up healthy at spring training and is touching the mid-90s with his fastball, there's a good shot he can get back to that level (16-10, 3.52 ERA, 186 K in 209.2 IP). But without the velocity, Hughes is a back-end starter at best.

Hitter to Watch

Miguel Sano crushed an absurd 36 extra-base hits, including 18 home runs, in just 80 games after receiving a July callup. He also walked 53 times and struck out an absurd 119 times, bringing three-true-outcomes slugging a la Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn back in style. But few mashers have ever been as advanced at such a young age as Sano showed at just 22 years old last season. He walked a brilliant 15.8% of the time and made sure he made his rare contact count, as FanGraphs data recorded 43.2 percent of his batted balls as "hard hit" -- for reference, J.D. Martinez led qualified players at 42.3 percent, followed by David Ortiz, Matt Kemp, Chris Davis and Paul Goldschmidt. Sano probably strikes out too much to expect a repeat of the respectable .269 average, but his power potential stacks up well with anybody in professional baseball, and it will be exciting to see what he can do with a full season of plate appearances. Sano is also slated to be moved to right field to start the 2016 season, perhaps a dubious experiment for the Twins, but great news for his fantasy value as he moves off DH.

Projected Lineup

vs. RHP

Byron Buxton (CF)
Brian Dozier (2B)
Joe Mauer (1B)
Miguel Sano (RF)
Trevor Plouffe (3B)
Byung-ho Park (DH)
Eddie Rosario (LF)
Kurt Suzuki (C)
Eduardo Escobar (SS)

vs. LHP

Byron Buxton (CF)
Brian Dozier (2B)
Joe Mauer (1B)
Miguel Sano (RF)
Trevor Plouffe (3B)
Byung-ho Park (DH)
Eddie Rosario (LF)
Kurt Suzuki (C)
Eduardo Escobar (SS)

Projected Rotation

Phil Hughes
Ervin Santana
Kyle Gibson
Ricky Nolasco
Tommy Milone

Bullpen Hierarchy

Closer: Glen Perkins
Setup: Kevin Jepsen
Middle Relief: Michael Tonkin, Casey Fien, J.R. Graham, Tyler Duffey

Riser

Byron Buxton struggled through his first MLB campaign, as he suffered a thumb injury and was poor when he managed to take the field, amassing a brutal .209/.250/.326 line in 138 plate appearances. Don't worry too much about that, though -- the 22-year-old torched Double-A for a .283/.351/.489 line and 20 stolen bases in just 59 games and hit .400 in his first 13 Triple-A games to earn his promotion, and that kind of advanced performance from such a young player is extremely rare. With Aaron Hicks out of the picture, Buxton is in line to be the Opening Day center fielder. With full-time at-bats, he's a great bet for at least 20 stolen bases even if his bat fails to mature this season. If it does and he shows the gap-to-gap power that fueled his minor league success, Buxton could become one of the game's best leadoff hitters.

Faller

Eduardo Escobar hit 12 home runs as he became a surprising source of power out of Minnesota's middle infield. The result of his power surge was a .262/.309/.445 line, and his .754 OPS marked a career high. But Escobar had never before hit more than seven home runs in a professional campaign. Escobar has proven to be a useful player for the Twins, a roughly league-average hitter over the past two years who has cracked 66 doubles. But Escobar doesn't run (three steals since 2014) and isn't likely to reach double-digit home runs again. He'll be at the bottom of Minnesota's lineup and will struggle to find run scoring or RBI opportunities, making him easy to pass over even at a desolate shortstop position.

Sleeper

Byung-ho Park slammed a ridiculous 105 home runs over the past two seasons in Korea, and he played on average just 132 games those two seasons thanks to their shorter campaigns. His 2015 season was his third consecutive year with an OPS over 1.000 and his fourth with at least 30 home runs and 100 RBI. There will certainly be the question of how he adapts to MLB pitching, but you simply don't hit 50 home runs in a 140-game season without stupendous raw power. Unfortunately, Park is slated to be Minnesota's designated hitter, which would limit him to utility slots, but he may get some chances to spell Joe Mauer at first base and pick up extra positional eligibility.

Supersleeper

John Ryan Murphy was acquired to be Minnesota's backup catcher in the deal that sent Aaron Hicks to the Yankees. But Kurt Suzuki is 32 years old and coming off a brutal 2015 campaign in which he managed just a .240/.296/.314 batting line in 131 games. Murphy has been blocked by Brian McCann in New York but has showed a solid bat over the past two years with a .280/.324/.394 line over 99 games. If Suzuki continues his struggles to open 2015, Murphy could slide into the starting role, making him a particularly good target late in AL-only or other similarly deep leagues.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jack Moore
Jack Moore is a freelance sports writer based in Minneapolis who appears regularly at VICE Sports, The Guardian and Baseball Prospectus Milwaukee, among others. Follow him on Twitter @jh_moore.
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