This article is part of our Regan's Rumblings series.
Pitchers and catchers reporting, Opening Day, the World Series, and the All-Star break are all great parts of the baseball season, but it's tough to beat the frenzy surrounding July 31. There are so many competitive teams this year, that perhaps we won't have as many sellers than in years past, but with the elimination of the August 31 waiver deadline, we should still see plenty of movement over the next few days. There are 10 teams that would be out of the playoffs if the season ended today, but each of the 10 are fewer than six games out of a playoff spot. With that, here are 10 predictions on things that could happen over the next few days:
Will Smith is still a closer on August 1, but for a new team
As of Monday, the Giants sit at 50-50, a mere 2.5 back of a Wild Card slot, but with five teams either ahead of them or tied (Arizona). Their eight games ahead of the deadline include three at home against the Cubs, three in San Diego and two in Philadelphia. Should they go say 6-2 in those eight, do they still deal Madison Bumgarner and perhaps multiple relievers? If team President Farhan Zaidi gets what he considers to be great offers, I can see the Giants selling, but no one really knows at this point. I think either way, that the demand for Smith will be there to the point where Zaidi gets an offer he
Pitchers and catchers reporting, Opening Day, the World Series, and the All-Star break are all great parts of the baseball season, but it's tough to beat the frenzy surrounding July 31. There are so many competitive teams this year, that perhaps we won't have as many sellers than in years past, but with the elimination of the August 31 waiver deadline, we should still see plenty of movement over the next few days. There are 10 teams that would be out of the playoffs if the season ended today, but each of the 10 are fewer than six games out of a playoff spot. With that, here are 10 predictions on things that could happen over the next few days:
Will Smith is still a closer on August 1, but for a new team
As of Monday, the Giants sit at 50-50, a mere 2.5 back of a Wild Card slot, but with five teams either ahead of them or tied (Arizona). Their eight games ahead of the deadline include three at home against the Cubs, three in San Diego and two in Philadelphia. Should they go say 6-2 in those eight, do they still deal Madison Bumgarner and perhaps multiple relievers? If team President Farhan Zaidi gets what he considers to be great offers, I can see the Giants selling, but no one really knows at this point. I think either way, that the demand for Smith will be there to the point where Zaidi gets an offer he can't refuse. Could Smith be a setup man on August 1? Sure, if he's dealt to say the Yankees, Astros or maybe the Dodgers. If we look at realistic teams that seem likely to make offers, here's how I see his role:
Closer: Braves, Red Sox, Brewers, Twins, A's, Phillies, Cardinals, Rays, Nationals
Setup man: Cubs, Astros, Dodgers, Yankees
So most likely, Smith is still accumulating saves come August. As to who takes over in San Francisco, that's tough, as we could also see guys like Sam Dyson and Tony Watson on the move. My guess is they use Mark Melancon as they attempt to rehabilitate his value.
Nicholas Castellanos is traded, further cementing playing time for Harold Castro
An impending free agent, Castellanos seems likely to be dealt next week. Castro has become pretty much an everyday player already, but this should put him atop the RF depth chart. He's hitting a surprising .302/.315/.424 with a pair of home runs and stolen bases. Of course, a 37:4 K:BB (25.2 K percentage, 2.7 BB percentage) is of some concern, and he does have just a 3.5 BB percentage at the AA and AAA levels, so Castro obviously loses some value in OBP leagues. He offers very little power, and his 20-plus SB speed seemed to fall off last year, but in AL-only leagues, he could have some value in the second half.
Castellanos meanwhile is hitting .316/.356/.565 through 16 games in July, so he's doing his best to get out of Detroit. He should be a starter wherever he goes and would be a nice fit with a team like the Cardinals.
Alex Colome is traded to a team with an established closer, Aaron Bummer becomes new closer
Colome has one more year of team control, but he's already making $7.4 million this year and would be in line for something in the range of $10 to 12 million in 2020. The White Sox are 11 games back of a Wild Card slot, so they should be firmly in sell mode, with Colome the most likely player to be dealt. He's had a solid season with a 2.33 ERA and is 21-for-22 in save chances, but contenders are smart. They may not be as likely to hand the ninth inning to a guy with a 3.93 FIP and 7.0 K/9. Of course, if he goes to a team like the Braves, he would easily be the top option there. Should Colome be dealt as expected, Aaron Bummer would be next in line most likely. He's had a great year with a 1.73 ERA and 0.98 WHIP after entering the year with a 4.36 career ERA in 67 games and most notably, he's generating an elite 68.5 GB percentage.
Felipe Vazquez and Brad Hand aren't traded
Unless the Indians go 0-8 this week and suffer major injuries to key players, they should be buyers as opposed to sellers. Earlier in the year, guys like Hand and Trevor Bauer were considered prime trade candidates, but they've now won 13 of their last 16 to move within three games of the Twins in the AL Central and are atop the Wild Card picture as well. A team like the Dodgers (or any contender really) would love to have Brad Hand, but unless a team makes a crazy offer that includes MLB ready (or current) talent, Hand stays.
Unlike the Indians, the Pirates have no shot at a playoff spot, but I still don't see them dealing Vazquez. He's on an extremely team-friendly deal through 2023 (via a pair of team options), so the return would have to be massive. Vazquez has been a top-five closer this year, posting a 1.91 ERA, 21 saves, and an elite 14.0 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9. In terms of what it would take to acquire Vazquez, one report had the Pirates asking the Dodgers for two of their top four prospects (in some order Gavin Lux, Will Smith, Dustin May and Keibert Ruiz) and perhaps more. I guess when the Pirates see that a couple months of Aroldis Chapman netted the Yankees Gleybar Torres, the high asking price is justified. I can see the Dodgers, for example, including Ruiz, another top-10 prospect, and a couple lower prospects with upside, but ultimately, I think Vazquez stays.
Joe Biagini becomes the new closer in Toronto
Coming off a 4.65 ERA last year with the Astros and Blue Jays, Toronto rolled the dice and brought him back on a one-year deal, and it's paid off nicely. Ken Giles is controllable through arbitration through 2020 before becoming a free agent, but it seems very likely he'll be dealt this month. He's been great in odd-numbered seasons in his career:
Year | ERA |
2015 | 1.80 |
2016 | 4.11 |
2017 | 2.30 |
2018 | 4.65 |
2019 | 1.64 |
Assuming Giles goes, Daniel Hudson would seemingly be next in line, but I'd expect Toronto to capitalize on his surprising year (2.72 ERA) and deal him too. That leaves Biagini and his 3.68 ERA. Biagini hasn't been great (1.32 WHIP), but he does average 94.1 mph with the fastball with solid ratios – 9.0 K/9, 3.1 BB/9. Biagini's track record prior to 2019 isn't great (5.59 ERA, 1.50 WHIP from 2017-2018), but fantasy value for relievers is all about opportunity, and Biagini should have one.
Padres clear OF log jam, deal Hunter Renfroe
It's not as much a logjam with Franchy Cordero out with a quad injury, but finding room for Renfroe, Manuel Margot (.308/.407/.603 in his last 27 games), Franmil Reyes and Wil Myers has been a challenge. Myers' contract is untradeable ($67.5 million from 2020 to 2022!), so unless the Padres want to eat a huge chunk of that, I'm guessing Renfroe or Reyes is traded for pitching help. Renfroe is a flawed player (28 K percentage), but he has 28 home runs, and if you focus on OPS only, his .247/.308/.588 slash line looks pretty impressive, especially considering his pitcher-friendly home park. The Padres won't accept anything less than full value for a guy with his power who is controllable through 2023, but he's very much available. How about Renfroe, Logan Allen, and a non top-10 Padres prospect to Detroit for Matthew Boyd? If Renfroe is dealt, that helps the playing time for all Padres' outfielders and likely means they recall Josh Naylor as a backup.
Mike Minor's fantasy value soars with deal sending him to Atlanta
The Rangers are 50-49, 6.5 games out of a wild card slot, but this doesn't look anything like a playoff team. Even with Minor, the Rangers rank 11th in the AL with a 5.05 team ERA, and though they are sixth in runs, the Rangers are also hitting just .249 as a group. Minor's value would seemingly never be higher, as he carries a 2.86 ERA and 131:45 K:BB in 129 innings. Minor has been roughed up a bit lately (6.06 ERA and five HR in three starts), but any contender would surely upgrade their rotation by dealing for him. The Rangers would assuredly want young pitching in return, and not coincidentally, that's what the Braves have in droves. They obviously aren't dealing Mike Soroka, but guys like Max Fried, Kyle Wright, Bryse Wilson, Ian Anderson, Joey Wentz and Sean Newcomb would certainly be on the table. Something like Anderson, Wright and a prospect in the 15 to 20 range should be able to get a deal done.
Freddy Galvis traded, Bo Bichette promoted
Galvis sports a 99 wRC+, so despite the 15 homers and respectable .274/.310/.454 slash, he's been a hair under league average offensively, but Galvis boasts a plus glove, allowing him to be headed toward a 2+ WAR season. There's value in that to a contender, so while a playoff team may not have an everyday job for him, Galvis would improve any team's bench, so I'd expect him to get plenty of interest on the trade market. That could clear a path for Bichette, who is hitting .295/.350/.497 in Triple-A, including a .915 OPS in his last nine games. Bichette should be a perennial .300 hitter with 25 to 30 stolen bases, and in his prime, 20-plus home runs seasons should be the norm. He strikes out less than 20 percent of the time, which should help ensure a smooth transition to big league pitching.
Dodgers deal Joc Pederson, promote Gavin Lux
After hitting Double-A pitching to the tune of .324/.408/.495, Lux has ramped it up since his promotion to Triple-A, posting a crazy .487/.552/.961 slash in his first 18 games. Overall, the middle infielder has 20 home runs and seven steals while striking out 19.8 percent of the time and walking in 10.3 percent of his PAs. Lux currently ranks No. 9 overall on RotoWire's Top 100 prospects, and unless Christian Yelich forces a trade to the Dodgers, Lux is staying put. Just over the past week, Lux, a natural shortstop, has received some action at second base, making it clear that the organization feels he's close to contributing at the big league level. If he can handle the position over the next couple weeks, expect him to be working the middle with Corey Seager. Pederson meanwhile is hitting a respectable .240/.329/.528 with 23 home runs, but the emergence of Alex Verdugo has led to the Dodgers trying Pederson at first base, where the results have been mixed at best. He may not have a ton of appeal to a rebuilding club considering his contract is up after next year, but could the Dodgers flip him for prospects and then use those players in a deal for a relief pitcher? Perhaps.
Red Sox find new closer on July 31
The Red Sox bullpen ranks 10th in the AL with a 4.53 ERA, so it seems likely they will be in the market for relief pitching this month. Maybe Nathan Eovaldi is the answer, or maybe Brandon Workman (1.84 ERA, 12.7 K/9…but a 6.1 BB/9) really is better than we thought, but I think the Sox will find a way to upgrade this month. They will have to be creative due to budget constraints and a mediocre farm system, but dealing for say Ian Kennedy (with the Royals kicking in a TON of cash) could happen, though some may argue that Kennedy needs to stay in a smaller market. Alternatively, perhaps the Red Sox fall further than their current three-game Wild Card deficit and look to sell or hold this year.
