This article is part of our Regan's Rumblings series.
Incredibly, we're about a month away from the trade deadline. There are some clear sellers (Giants, Tigers, Orioles), clear buyers (Dodgers, Astros, Yankees, etc.), while others are expected to base their decision on how the next month plays out. What is clear is that relievers are going to be on the move. Let's look at a handful of bullpen situations that could create value in current setup men while removing a lot of the value once current closers go to contending teams to be setup men.
San Francisco Giants
A free agent after this year, Will Smith seems to have near a 100 percent chance to be on the move, as not only is he an elite reliever, he's also left-handed. Smith's value will be predicated on where he ends up, of course. If it's the Dodgers, he's likely going to be setting up Kenley Jansen, while perhaps netting the occasional save. If he ends up in Tampa Bay, he probably closes over the likes of Jose Alvarado and Diego Castillo. So, who takes over once Smith is gone? I'd probably set the depth chart as follows:
1. Tony Watson
3. Sam Dyson
Of course, guys like Watson, Melancon and Dyson could also be on the move, and I do expect the Giants will deal multiple relievers next month. If I had to guess, I'd say Smith, Watson and Dyson all go, as they aren't part of the Giants' future. That would leave
Incredibly, we're about a month away from the trade deadline. There are some clear sellers (Giants, Tigers, Orioles), clear buyers (Dodgers, Astros, Yankees, etc.), while others are expected to base their decision on how the next month plays out. What is clear is that relievers are going to be on the move. Let's look at a handful of bullpen situations that could create value in current setup men while removing a lot of the value once current closers go to contending teams to be setup men.
San Francisco Giants
A free agent after this year, Will Smith seems to have near a 100 percent chance to be on the move, as not only is he an elite reliever, he's also left-handed. Smith's value will be predicated on where he ends up, of course. If it's the Dodgers, he's likely going to be setting up Kenley Jansen, while perhaps netting the occasional save. If he ends up in Tampa Bay, he probably closes over the likes of Jose Alvarado and Diego Castillo. So, who takes over once Smith is gone? I'd probably set the depth chart as follows:
1. Tony Watson
3. Sam Dyson
Of course, guys like Watson, Melancon and Dyson could also be on the move, and I do expect the Giants will deal multiple relievers next month. If I had to guess, I'd say Smith, Watson and Dyson all go, as they aren't part of the Giants' future. That would leave the expensive and underperforming Melancon and the fire balling, but wild, Moronta to duke it out for save opportunities.
Detroit Tigers
With a 0.93 ERA and 3.55 FIP, Greene has been pitching a bit over his head, but he's still an obvious trade candidate and nice upgrade for contenders. I'm not sure Greene can maintain a .181 BABIP, but his 29:9 K:BB in 29 innings is solid, and he's 21-for-22 in save opportunities. Greene is controlled via arbitration through 2020, so the Tigers could certainly keep him, but the temptation to cash in and look more toward 2021 when guys like Casey Mize and Matt Manning are ready to pitch 180 innings is very possible. Greene seems less likely than Smith to be traded and still be a closer, as he's not a dominant reliever and he's lost some speed on his fastball. Should he be dealt, it's unclear to whom the Tigers would turn. The prevailing thought is that Joe Jimenez is the Tigers' closer of the future, but Jimenez has a 5.16 ERA and 4.6 BB/9. He has been dominant to the tune of a 12.7 K/9, so it seems likely he'd be the guy to get the first crack at the role. Who would be next in line is even less clear. Victor Alcantara has a mediocre 5.2 K/9, Buck Farmer has a 4.71 ERA, and Blaine Hardy is 32 with a fastball that doesn't crack 90 mph. I'd bet on Greene getting dealt and Jimenez taking over, though whether Jimenez finishes as the closer is uncertain.
Chicago White Sox
Alex Colome is controlled via arbitration through the 2020 season, so he's not a lock to be traded, as the White Sox seemingly are looking to compete sooner rather than later in the AL Central. Still, they may look to cash in while his value is at its peak, as Colome's 2020 salary will likely be in the $10 million-plus range, and in having a hot start to 2019, his value may never be higher. Colome has a 2.15 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, and he's yet to blow a save while converting 16. Colome isn't going to maintain a .104 BABIP of course, and his 4.16 FIP is indicative of his underlying metrics (7.7 K/9) not equaling his excellent ERA. The White Sox will likely seize the opportunity to cash in next month, opening up their closer role for someone new. The top candidate to take over would appear to be Aaron Bummer unless the White Sox decide to keep him in a high-leverage setup role. Bummer is a lefty who throws in the mid-90s, and he's pitched to a 1.88 ERA with a 9.8 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 24 innings. His fastball is up more than two full mph compared to last year, and he's generating in excess of four ground balls per fly ball. Should Bummer be left in a setup role, Evan Marshall would probably get the call on the basis of his 1.02 ERA. Marshall, however, has just a 6.1 K/9, so he doesn't exactly profile as the ideal closer. Kelvin Herrera has some experience in the role but he has a 6.75 ERA, though he's been better lately with a 4.26 mark in 6.1 innings with an 8:1 K:BB. Marshall though is likely the guy to stash.
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles bullpen (and team really) is a hot mess, but saves are saves, so don't ignore whomever is closing games there. We have Mychal Givens atop the depth chart right now, but Givens has blown five of his 11 save opportunities and he has a 5.23 ERA, 2.3 HR/9 and 4.4 BB/9. The upside is there as evidenced by his 95 mph average fastball and 13.1 K/9, but he's far from locked in as an established closer. As it stands, Givens can be controlled through 2021, so the Orioles may be best off keeping him rather than selling low, but he's a trade candidate regardless. Should Givens go (or further work his way out of the ninth based on performance), a number of noninteresting candidates could step in. With a fast ball averaging 97.1 mph, Miguel Castro has the tools, but he also has a 5.77 ERA, 4.6 BB/9 and 1.6 HR/9 with a mediocre 7.9 K/9. There is also Shawn Armstrong with his 4.74 ERA, and it just goes further south from there. The Orioles may be best off converting Dylan Bundy or Andrew Cashner into a closer role, though that doesn't appear to be on the horizon.
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto seems to be in a prime position to sell next month, and Giles should be one of their prime pieces. He's not a free agent until after the 2020 season, so the Jays don't have to deal him, but I'd expect they'll get an offer they can't refuse. Giles is in the midst of an All-Star season, posting a 1.33 ERA with 12 saves in 13 chances and very elite ratios – 15.7 K/9, 2.7 BB/9. He's coming off a season in which he posted a 4.65 ERA, but if you look beyond that, he had a 3.07 FIP, 9.5 K/9, and 1.3 BB/9. He's been relatively healthy in his career and is still just 28, so he could certainly net a nice return. He'd close for some contenders (Rays, Twins, Braves) but would set up for others (Dodgers, Cubs, etc.). Who would take over in Toronto? Daniel Hudson is having a nice season with a 2.94 ERA, though his 4.99 FIP is scary. Joe Biagini filled in when Giles was on the shelf briefly recently, and he has a decent 3.51 ERA, 8.9 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9. Biagini would probably be the guy, with David Phelps potentially factoring in at some point.
Cleveland Indians
Brad Hand is controlled at reasonable salaries through 2021, so it would take a haul to get him in a trade, but expect teams to try. The Indians though are very much in the mix for a Wild Card, so the odds seem low (20 percent?) that he would be traded, but it's a possibility. We'll obviously know more about the Indians' intentions as we get closer to July 31. Should Hand and his 1.08 ERA and zero blown saves go, the Indians seem likely to turn to either side-arming Adam Climber (3.58 ERA, 4.94 FIP, 5.9 K/9), 37-year-old Oliver Perez (3.13 ERA, 29:3 K:BB in 23 innings), or the guy who would be my choice, Nick Wittgren (2.63 ERA, 9.9 K/9, 1.3 BB/9).
Pittsburgh Pirates
Felipe Vazquez is an elite reliever controllable through 2023, so it's tough to see him being dealt. Vazquez is a lock for the NL All-Star team on the basis of his 1.91 ERA, 95 percent save conversion rate (20 chances), 13.9 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9. In the unlikely event that he is traded (Dodgers would be perfect), Kyle Crick is the overwhelming favorite to take over.
Kansas City Royals
Ian Kennedy is making $16.5 million this year and in 2020, so the Royals would obviously have to pay that down significantly to facilitate a deal, but the noncompetitive Royals would certainly love to free themselves from even 20 percent of that. Should Kennedy go, the top two candidates to take over would be Wily Peralta and Brad Boxberger. Peralta doesn't look like a great option with his 4.64 ERA and mediocre 22:16 K:BB in 33 innings, though his last 13.2 innings, Peralta has pitched to a 1.98 ERA and 12:4 K:BB. Boxberger has a 5.40 ERA and 1.58 WHIP, but he has a 3.00 ERA in his last nine innings along with 77 career saves.
San Diego Padres
The Padres are just two and a half games out of a Wild Card spot, though they could certainly wind up as sellers. Kirby Yates isn't a free agent until after the 2020 season, and they've already put out word that it would take an overwhelming offer to deal him, but this is a team that already dealt Brad Hand last year despite having three and a half years of control over him. This one all depends on how the Padres play over the last month or so, but I think he's dealt. Craig Stammen is one possibility to take over, but he has an 11.88 ERA in his last 8.1 innings and is far from dominant. 25-year-old Trey Wingenter is interesting with his 96.1 mph average fastball and 12.3 K/9, though his control remains well below-average (5.2 BB/9).
St. Louis Cardinals
A torn UCL most often leads to Tommy John surgery, so expect Jordan Hicks' next appearance to come sometime in 2020. The Cardinals are tied for second in the Wild Card, so they could be looking to add a closer via trade next month if the team plays well between now and then. In the meantime, John Gant should fill the role over Carlos Martinez. In a bout of good luck, Gant is already 7-0 this year with a 2.40 ERA and he's somehow increased the average velocity year over year on his fastball from 93.3 mph to 95.9 mph while posting solid ratios of 8.1 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9. Andrew Miller has a 2.89 ERA over his last 9.1 innings and could be another option, but for now, it's Gant. I expect, though, that the guy who ends the year as the team's closer is not currently on the roster.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The D'backs will certainly deal Greg Holland if they're out of the race next month, but as of Monday, they are just two back of a Wild Card slot, so they're a "hold" right now. Holland has a 2.19 ERA, but due in large part to a 4.4 BB/9, his FIP sits at 3.86, suggesting coming regression. In terms of potential successors, Archie Bradley has an 11.6 K/9, but he's been rocked lately and now has a 5.66 ERA. Yoshihisa Hirano has a 4.76 ERA, and though Yoan Lopez somehow has a 1.20 ERA, his FIP sits at 3.97 due to a nondominant 6.3 K/9. If Holland leaves, expect a committee approach until someone starts standing out among the poor options in Arizona.
If there are any other situations you'd like covered, hit me up in the comments.
