Regan's Rumblings: Strong Second-half Starts

As I type these words on the morning of July 29, I know there will be more action over the next couple days, but as of NOW, the biggest move has been the Mets' odd acquisition of Marcus Stroman. For a team sitting 11.5 back in the division with seven clubs ahead of them in the Wild Card race, it's obviously a move more for 2020 when it seems unlikely that the rotation will contain both Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler. Either way, we should see a ton of relievers change teams over the next couple of days, so get that FAAB money ready to buy some saves.

This week, I'm taking a look at some non-superstars off to great second-half starts. We've all seen the "old" Jose Ramirez return (.366/.387/.775 in 2H) while Christian Yelich is hitting his usual .377/.441/.705. Here though are 10 guys who maybe we weren't expecting this from.

Danny Santana, OF, TEX (.403/.431/.839, 6 HR, 3 SB)

Talk about a guy coming out of nowhere. Santana the past four seasons at the big league level hit just .219/.256/.319 with six homers and 28 steals in 735 plate appearances. This year he's somehow hitting .324/.355/.588 with 15 home runs and 12 stolen bases. Santana is walking at just a 4.1 percent clip while striking out in 27.6 percent of his PAs, and while a .406 BABIP isn't likely sustainable, it's tough to explain a .264 ISO, a mark that was just .100 from 2015 to 2018. Santana did start to show more power in the Braves organization last year, hitting 16 home runs for Triple-A Gwinnet in 82 games, but taking that production and duplicating it at the big league level? No chance we could have predicted that. Santana's 35.4 FB percentage isn't that notable, though he's elevating the ball more this year, as evidenced by a 13.6 degrees launch angle (6.6 career), and his 44.1 percent hard hit rate is notably higher than his 31.4 percent career mark. So yes, hitting the ball harder at a higher launch angle is going to get one more home runs. Santana exited Sunday's game with a calf injury, but if it's minor, he could garner serious trade interest over the next couple of days considering the lack of viable bats on the trade market.

Yuli Gurriel, 1B, HOU (.406/.431/.739, 6 HR)

At one point when OF/1B Yordan Alvarez was tearing up the minor leagues, it was thought that Gurriel could be in for a reduction in playing time. He was hitting just .253/.283/.382 on June 9, but in the 38 games since, the Cuban is batting a robust .372/.413/.750 with 16 home runs and an improved 5.4 BB percentage. Gurriel has already topped his career high with 20 home runs, and he remains a very tough guy to strike out (10.6 percent K percentage). When one puts the ball in play, good things often happen, and they sure are now for the 35-year-old. It's not a surprise to see him hitting .300, as Gurriel hit .299 and .291 the past two seasons, but the power is what has been the biggest surprise. Then again, who isn't hitting for more power this year? Gurriel also has 12 home runs this month compared to just one in April, but he's historically been a slow starter (.266/.307/.411 in March/April), so perhaps we should have seen this one coming.

Ramon Laureano, OF, OAK (.400/.444/.818, 5 HR, 2 SB)

Remember when Laureano was available in 12-team mixed leagues? Good times. It was understandable though, as he was hitting just .176 through his first 10 games and .216 on May 7. Since that date, the 25-year-old has hit .313/.361/.615 with 18 homers and nine stolen bases in a large sample size – 70 games. That tells me this guy is pretty good. Laureano started garnering some attention in 2016 when he hit a combined .319/.428/.528 with 15 homers and 43 stolen bases between A+ and AA. He then slumped during a full year at the Double-A level in 2017 before recovering to appear in 107 games with the A's last year while hitting a promising .288/.358/.474. Laureano has some warts to his game, including a 5.3 BB percentage and 27 K percentage, but he has a cannon for an arm and should be in the lineup every day, even during the inevitable second-half slump. He's carrying a .344 BABIP that may result in some BA regression, but considering last year's .388 BABIP, he may be one of those guys who can sustain an elevated BABIP thanks to his legs. Not bad for a guy who lasted until pick No. 466 in the 2014 draft.

Mark Canha, OF, OAK (.310/.420/.638, 5 HR)

After hitting just .227/.323/.343 versus RHP last season, Canha appeared headed for the short side of a platoon in 2019, but with Stephen Piscotty (knee) having missed all of July, Canha has received regular playing time. He's certainly taken advantage, and he's reversed his platoon splits, hitting .258/.390/.556 against RHIP while still posting a solid .869 OPS against southpaws. With Piscotty nearing a return, it will be interesting to see how the A's divvy up playing time, but it's easy to see Canha receiving the lion's share of the playing time at one of the OF corners, pushing Robbie Grossman to a bench role. You can't really bench Matt Olson (21 homers), Ramon Laureano (see above) or Khris Davis, so look for Grossman to be the odd man out.

Mike Yastrzemski, OF, SF (.339/.377/.661, 4 HR)

We've seen many players with famous lineages over the years, including Pete Rose Jr., Chris Gwynn, Wilton Guerrero and Tim Raines Jr. not be able to live up to that lineage, and Yastrzemski figured to be another one. Coming into this year, he was a 28-year-old career minor leaguer with a career slash of .260/.337/.428 that was just good enough for him to stick around the fringes of baseball, possibly due in part to his famous grandfather and the unique last name. This year though, with Yastrzemski hitting .316/.414/.676 in Triple-A and the Giants in desperate need of outfielders with a pulse, he got his first look, and the results have been surprising. After hitting just .214/.286/.321 in his first 16 games, he's hit .302/.338/.587 since, with eight homers in 126 at-bats and a reasonable 23.5 K percentage. His 0.26 BB/K could be a precursor to some second-half troubles, but if he can get that mark closer to his 0.47 minor league career mark, that will certainly help. Austin Slater would seem to be his primary competition for at-bats, and since being recalled on July 1, Slater has a .908 OPS, but Yastrzemski should continue to receive regular at-bats while he's hitting. It's just tough to buy too much into a 28-year-old rookie.

Teoscar Hernandez, OF, TOR (.295/.380/.750, 6 HR)

When a guy who has put up this stat line in the second half is still hitting just .219/.287/.427, you know the start to his season was brutal. Indeed, before his recent run, Hernandez was hitting .204/.267/.361 on July 7. We've seen this from him before. Remember last April when he hit .306.377/.677 before finishing the year with 163 strikeouts and a .239/.302/.468 slash line. With a HR/AB rate of 19.2 for his career, I tend to believe the power is real, but he's also a .235 career hitter with a 30.9 K percentage, so it's really tough to see him as much more than a .230 hitter.

Reynaldo Lopez, SP, CHW (1-1, 1.71 ERA, 10.71 K/9, 1.71 BB/9)

After somewhat of a breakout 2018 (3.91 ERA in 32 starts despite a so-so 151:75 K:BB in 188.2 innings), the hope was that the 25-year-old would take another step forward this year, but instead we have a guy with a 5.52 ERA through 21 starts. Lopez though did fan 10 in his last start, and in his last eight starts (49.2 innings), he's pitched to a 3.99 ERA, an improved 1.13 WHIP, and an excellent 47:9 K:BB. Lopez has improved his K/9 year-over-year from 7.2 to 8.4 while lowering his BB/9 from 3.6 to 3.2. He's unfortunately caught the widespread HR bug, posting a 1.8 HR/9 (1.2 last year), and a 52-point increase in his BABIP to .312 has led to more hits than innings pitched. Lopez has improved his swinging strike rate to 10.9 percent over last year's 9.2 mark, though that is still low relative to league average. Lopez remains a volatile guy with upside, though until he can consistently control and command his fastball, it will be tough for him to reach his No. 2 starter ceiling.

Yu Darvish, SP, CHC (1-0, 2.00 ERA, 10.5 K/9, 1.0 BB/9)

The 32-year-old's six-year $126 million contract has been a disaster so far, but to his credit, he's at least been providing value lately. After a 5.40 ERA through his first 11 starts, Darvish has a more normal 3.75 mark in his last 10, including a 0.88 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, and 1.9 BB/9. 2013 may end up being his career year, but Darvish is throwing harder than he did back then, and his 45.9 GB percentage is the best he's posted since his 2012 rookie season. As has been the case the past two years, HR's have been a big issue (1.6 HR/9), so despite the decent GB percentage, when the ball gets hit in the air, it goes far. Darvish has an ERA over 5.00 at home since joining the Cubs, so I'd probably stream him in 12-team mixed leagues for now until he can reel off a nice run that includes strong starts at Wrigley Field.

Asher Wojciechowski, SP, BAL (2-1, 2.21 ERA, 11.1 K/9, 1.3 BB/9)

I've bought into Orioles' starters in recent years, including Chris Tillman and Kevin Gausman, so I remain wary of guys like Wojciechowski, a 30-year-old journeyman who entered the season with a 6.64 ERA in 78.2 innings, but who carried a solid 80:26 K:BB. What caught deeper league owners scrambling to the waiver wire was his July 21 start that saw him toss 7.1 innings of one-hit no-run ball against Boston that included a 10:2 K:BB. Wojciechowski seemed to make some adjustments last year, posting a 126:37 K:BB in 119.1 minor league innings before getting the call in 2019 to help a terrible Baltimore rotation. Wojciechowski is out of minor league options (he's 30), so with the Orioles less than flush with rotation options, he should get a chance to stick around.

Hansel Robles, RP, LAA (3.00 ERA, 4 saves, 6.0 K/9, 1.5 BB/9)

When you get designated for assignment by the Mets, the natural assumption is that you're not going to have a lot of real-life or fantasy value going forward, but Robles has defied that sort of thinking. Entering this season with three career saves in 224 appearances, Robles has 16 saves in 48.2 innings with an excellent 2.77 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 46:12 K:BB. His velocity has climbed dramatically the last two years, going from an average fastball of 94.9 mph in 2017 to 96 mph last year and finally, 97.1 mph this season. His 8.5 K/9 is a bit low for a closer, but limiting home runs (0.74 HR/9) has been key, and his 2.2 BB/9 is a marked improvement over the 4.0 career mark he had headed into 2019. The smart thing for the Angels would be to cash in on what could be a fluke season and deal Robles by Wednesday and give the job to Ty Buttrey, but Robles isn't a free agent until after the 2021 season, so the Angels could easily justify keeping him around barring a strong offer. Assuming he stays, Robles should maintain the closer role for the balance of 2019.