Regan's Rumblings: Big Second Halves in Store?

As I head into post-break mode and re-evaluate my roster, I like to assess guys who may have gotten off to slow starts, but have picked things up over the last month or so. Unfortunately, many fantasy owners have access to the same data I do and may not sell low on any of these guys, but it's worth noting players who enter the second half hitting well. Whether they are worth adding off the wire or trading for will be discussed below.

Note: Stat lines are from the last 30 days through Sunday's action.

Chris Taylor 2B/SS/OF, LAD

.363/.443/.613, 3 HR, 3 SB

[Editor note: Taylor was hit by a pitch and broke his arm shortly after this story was written and will miss 4-6 weeks.]

Taylor entered May hitting just .171, but he's turned things around lately, and though he may not be a regular at any specific position, he's seen time at five positions, qualifying in most leagues at three of them. In the span we're talking about here, Taylor has posted a strong 13.4 BB percentage, easily topping his 9.7 percent season-long rate. The strikeouts have still been there (26.8 percent), but the added patience certainly hasn't hurt. Taylor saw his OPS drop 75 points last year after a breakout 2017 (.288/.354/.496), but the recent hot streak and the fact he's still just 28 means it's probably not quite time to say definitively that 2017 will be his career season. Encouragingly, he's already swiped seven bases after stealing just nine last year, so a 15-20 HR/15-20 SB season is very possible as long as the hits keep falling. Taylor probably sees most of his playing time at second base going forward with A.J. Pollock back in the outfield mix, but expect manager Dave Roberts to continue to find ways to get his bat in the lineup.

Josh Donaldson, 3B, ATL

.310/.422/.774, 11 HR, 2 SB

It's been a bit of a rollercoaster season for Donaldson, but he's been hot lately, and most importantly, after playing in just 52 games in 2018, Donaldson has appeared in 90 of the team's 94 games so far in 2019. Now, can he keep this up? Recall that before a rough 2018, Donaldson was among the league's elite, batting a combined .285/.387/.559 while averaging 37 home runs a season from 2015 to 2017. At 33, he's hardly ancient in terms of baseball age, so it wouldn't be a huge surprise if he had a handful of .900+ OPS seasons still left in the tank. The Braves have the NL's No. 2 ranked offense (behind the Rockies of course), and that should allow for plenty of opportunities for Donaldson to continue to pile up the counting stats. Shoulder and calf injuries limited Donaldson's production last year, but assuming those issues are behind him, I'd expect top-five 3B production the rest of the way.

Ramon Laureano, OAK

.294/.357/.671, 9 HR, 3 SB

An .835 OPS in 48 games from August to September last year had Laureano atop a lot of preseason sleeper lists, but after hitting .176 in his first 10 games this year, he found himself among fantasy's most dropped players. Hopefully though, you were able to get a share or two before Laureano turned things around in a big way. His 18 homers and 11 steals have a ton of appeal, and if he can just hit for a decent BA, Laureano is a guy with top-100 overall upside. The lack of plate discipline (5.1 BB percentage, 26.6 K percentage) is the most troubling aspect of his game, though I do like the improvement in his flyball rate from 31.5 to 39.9 percent. Laureano, though, is chasing more pitches out of the zone this year, and his swinging strike rate is well above league average at 13.1 percent. Laureano's plate discipline issues could ultimately derail things for the 25-year-old, but he did post a reasonable 0.42 BB/K in the minors, so improvement should eventually come in that area.

Christian Vazquez, C, BOS

.316/.341/.633, 7 HR

I don't know how many times I've rostered Vazquez in two-catcher leagues only to get frustrated and drop him. Not that anyone cares about anyone else's fantasy team, but of course I own zero Vazquez shares now. One phrase we used in Vazquez's preseason outlook this year was, in reference to the Boston catching situation in total, was "utter futility." Ouch. Vazquez hit just .207/.257/.283 a year ago, but budget constraints and a lack of internal competition led to Vazquez getting another shot at being the No. 1 catcher, and he's taken advantage. Coming into the season, Vazquez had just 10 career home runs in 922 at-bats, but has 15 this year in just 266 at-bats. Let's look at the power first. Vazquez is hitting the ball harder per Statcast (42.1 percent hard hit rate versus 28.6 percent in 2018). His launch angle (12 degrees) is right in line with last year's 12.6, while his exit velocity is up slightly from 87.2 mph to 90 mph. More notably, he's improved his barrel rate from 1.9 to 6.9 percent, but this table is also relevant:

Typically, this number clocks in around 11 to 12 percent for the league as a whole, so perhaps Vazquez was just barely missing some home runs in prior years, but with a little added exit velocity and more barrels, the HR rate has normalized somewhat. I don't see him reaching 25 home runs, but 20 to 22? Sure. In terms of his 90-point year-over-year increase in his batting average, the hard hit rate increase and his BABIP jumping from .237 to .320 explains a lot of that. Vazquez was a .246 career hitter coming into the season, so it's hard to imagine him jumping to a near-.300 level, but .270 I'd buy.

Eric Sogard, 2B, TOR

.330/.402/.534, 4 HR, 2 SB

At 35-59, not a lot has gone right for the Blue Jays this year, but Sogard is one exception. Sogard seemingly lost the second base job to Cavan Biggio, but he's seen time at six positions, with several of his recent starts coming as a DH. Sogard's days of regular playing time were seemingly over after the veteran hit just .134 last year in 97 at-bats, but baseball is always full of surprises. Sogard hit a somewhat promising .273/.393/.378 for the Brewers in 2017 before last year's drop-off, so seeing him hitting .296 currently isn't super-surprising, but like so many guys this year, the power output has been completely unexpected. Sogard entered this year with 11 career home runs in 1,556 at-bats, but he's nearly doubled that output with 10 homers this year in just 240 at-bats. His HR/FB rate is a reasonable 11.1 percent and he has increased his FB percentage to 44.2 versus a 36.8 career mark, but this still seems flukish given some of his Statcast metrics, including a measly 1.4 percent barrel rate and an 85 mph average exit velocity (145th in baseball). I guess I can see him hitting .280 the rest of the way, but it wouldn't be a huge surprise to see fewer than 15 home runs by season's end. Regardless, I have to think he's traded to a contender later this month, opening up a spot for Bo Bichette.

Yasiel Puig, OF, CIN

.370/.422/.815, 10 HR, 4 SB

Puig was supposed to have a huge year. Fresh start. Hitter's park. In a walk year. It hasn't worked out that way overall, but the mercurial Puig has been hot lately. Overall, he's hitting a modest .260/.302/.502, though his .2452 ISO is a career best. Puig hasn't posted a BA above .267 since the 2014 season, so temper your expectations there, but 30-plus home runs is a real possibility, and with 13 steals, he has a shot at his first 20-plus SB season. Puig's 0.24 BB/K is a career low, and in his last 32 games, he's posted just a 3.9 BB percentage, though he's also hit .331 during that span. I really don't know what to expect from him the rest of the way, but I wouldn't argue if you held onto him and hoped for the best, or sold high.

Lance Lynn, SP, TEX

5-0, 2.00 ERA, 10.3 K/9, 1.0 BB/9

After missing all of 2016 due to Tommy John surgery, Lynn has gradually regained more than a full two mph on his fastball and has managed to survive pitching in Texas. Coming off a 4.77 ERA last year with the Twins and Yankees, Lynn somehow scored a three-year deal with the Rangers, and he's made that deal look good. The excellent 9.9 K/9 aside, what's really helped Lynn is his sudden improvement in his control. After BB/9s of 3.8 and 4.4 the prior two seasons, Lynn sits at an excellent 2.1 this year, allowing him to post a 2.85 FIP, giving us confidence that his 3.69 ERA could continue to drop despite the tough environment for pitches. Lynn's struggles against left-handed hitters have continued, as they are batting .279 against him, but the improved control has allowed him to mitigate that damage. I do wonder whether the Rangers would sell high on guys like Lynn and Mike Minor later this month, but my guess is he sticks around and continues to perform.

Andrew Cashner, SP, BOS

3-1, 1.38 ERA, 5.2 K/9, 1.0 BB/9

Perhaps this deal doesn't work out for the Orioles, but trading three-plus months of Cashner for a pair of 17-year-old lottery tickets was a nice move regardless. Cashner has gained a full one mph on his fastball this year, and his 3.83 ERA in the AL East is excellent, but the peripherals suggest things could turn south. Casher's 6.2 K/9 is well below league average, and while his 2.7 BB/9 is much improved over last year's 3.8, is anyone really confident that this is a guy who can be a consistent fantasy asset going forward? I continue to think that Cashner would add two mph to his fastball as a reliever, and we know the Boston bullpen could use the help, but at least for now, Cashner is a starter and he has no real competition for the No. 5 starter job.

Adam Wainwright, SP, STL

1-1, 2.63 ERA, 10.5 K/9, 2.3 BB/9

After pitching to a 4.54 ERA while averaging less than 100 IP a year from 2015-2018, expectations were rather low for Wainwright in his 15th MLB season. Then after posting a 4.82 ERA through his first 10 starts, we figured a demotion to the bullpen was inevitable for the 37-year-old. So, then what happens? Vintage Wainwright of course. During that span, the 37-year-old has posted a 10.0 K/9, which is unbelievable considering he's never even posted a 9.0 mark over a full season ever. His very mediocre 7.6 percent swinging strike rate (76th among 79 qualified starters) could be a bad omen, so unless he can continue to drive down his 3.5 BB/9 and keep the ball in the park, things could get ugly. I'm less than optimistic that a strong finish is in order.

Liam Hendriks, RP, OAK

0.00 ERA, 6 saves, 13.5 K/9, 0.0 BB/9

Does anyone actually want to argue that closers aren't volatile? A year after posting one of the best seasons for a closer in baseball history (38 saves, 0.78 ERA, 100 strikeouts), Blake Treinen is no longer the A's closer. He's struggled to a 4.54 ERA, and in his last eight appearances, Treinen has an 11.37 ERA while walking more than he has struck out. Enter Liam Hendriks. A failed starter and previously a mediocre reliever, Hendriks has come out of nowhere to post a 1.21 ERA while adding 1.5 mph to his fastball and improving his control markedly. Hendriks hasn't walked a batter since June 12, and in his last 14.2 innings, he hasn't allowed a run while posting a 22:0 K:BB. Perhaps Treinen figures things out soon, but I'd bet big on Hendriks leading the team in saves the rest of the way.