Regan's Rumblings: Beyond Predictions

We all have certain expectations of what certain guys can and will deliver, and that's why projections and rankings elicit such a wide range of responses. Projections are just that, estimates/guesses, and those doing said projections just hope to be as right as they can, as often as they can. This week, however, I'll look at 10 guys off to starts that few, if any, analyst/"expert" could have predicted.

Hunter Pence, OF, TEX

As we wrote in our preseason outlook, things weren't looking good for Pence ever being a fantasy contributor again. We stated that, "Pence has likely played his last game with the Giants but maintains he isn't done playing baseball. Frankly, his numbers say otherwise. " That's all true, as Pence saw his numbers crater in 2018, batting .226/.258/.332 in 97 games with the Giants. So of course, he's hitting .316/.389/.658 with seven home runs and a career-best 11.1 BB percentage. Of course, hitting in Texas is a bit easier than doing so in San Francisco, but this is nuts. Pence's StatCast metrics lend support to his slash line, including career-bests in exit velocity (93.1 percent) and hard hit rate (48.4 percent). His 10.9 percent barrel rate is his best since 2015, so clearly, he's seeing the ball better this year. Now, a 35 percent HR/FB rate isn't sustainable, as his mark last year was 7.7 percent, and league average has generally been in the 11 percentrange historically. It would be easy to conclude that what he's doing isn't sustainable, but what if it is, at least at an 80 percent rate? The strong plate discipline, hard hit rate and reasonable .316 BABIP would seem to indicate that he's revitalized. Maybe something like .280/.345/.500 the rest of the way is a good prediction.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, TOR

It's probably still the case that Guerrero's minor league career is over, but after hitting a combined .376/.433/.629 the past two seasons in the minor leagues, big things were obviously expected. What I didn't expect was that he would be hitting .191/.283/.234 through his first 53 plate appearances. Guerrero has yet to hit a home run and has just two XBH, both doubles. On the plus side, his ratios are solid, including an 11.3 BB percentage and 22.6 K percentage, and it's likely his .257 BABIP will rise. Vlad was also moved to the two-hole over the weekend to change up things, and he responded by going 3-for-6 with a double and two walks over two games, so it's good to see some signs of life. By all accounts, Vlad is too talented to not go on a tear, which could happen at any moment. It's tough to imagine him getting sent down, as he doesn't exactly have anything left to prove in Triple-A. We will continue to preach patience here. Of course, if the Vlad owner in your league is getting frustrated, feel free to pounce, but most of his owners have been burning a roster spot in anticipation of his callup, so don't expect to be able to float a middling offer and expect to secure Vlad's services.

Hunter Dozier, 1B/3B, KC

Between Triple-A and the big leagues last year, Dozier hit just 12 home runs in 531 plate appearances, finishing with a mediocre .229/.278/.395 slash in his 102 big league games. So, for him to be hitting .318/.413/.621 this year is pretty surprising. This is also pretty impressive:

BB% (2018/2019): 6.2%/12.9%

K% (2018/2019): 28.1%/20.6%

Dozier has 12 barrels, which gives him one more than both Bryce Harper and Trevor Story. His exit velocity and hard hit rate are up a bit over last year, so everything seems to be trending up. Dozier is a former first-round pick, so the pedigree is there. I'm more optimistic on his hitting 25-plus homers this year than I am his hitting .280 the rest of the way, as there's little recent track record to suggest he's anywhere near a .300 hitter. All in all, though, he's clearly improved his approach at the plate, making me think he's more of a .270/.350/.480 hitter than a hitter with last year's ugly line.

Tim Anderson, SS, CHW

I'm always skeptical of guys with microscopic walk rates, and Anderson is no exception. He's improved his OPS 210 points year-over-year, batting .331/.362/.535 with eight homers and 12 stolen bases through 149 PA. He's done all this despite a four percent BB percentage, though notably, his strikeout rate is way down, going from 24.6 percent last year to 20.1 in 2019. Anderson is definitely hitting the ball harder, posting a career-best 42 percent hard hit rate (up from 27.9 percentin 2018). He's just 157th in barrels/PA percentage and 260th in launch angle at 9.7 percent, so the power won't likely maintain this pace, though I can see 25 homers after he hit 20 a year ago. A first-round pick back in 2013, Anderson has some prospect pedigree, and though he's never shown this sort of power, he once swiped 49 bases (in 125 games) in a minor league season, and power is often the last tool to develop. Anderson has the speed to maintain a high BABIP (currently .375), and though some BA regression is likely, I can see him finishing with the following numbers: .297/.330/.500 with 28 home runs and 40 stolen bases. Basically Jose Ramirez 2018 with fewer walks.

Joey Votto, 1B, CIN

I guess the big question here is whether this is a slump or the beginning of a steep decline. Save the OBP, Votto's numbers took a dip last year, as he hit a respectable .284/.417/.419, but the average was the lowest of his career (save the 62-game abbreviated 2015 campaign), and his .135 ISO was by far his lowest and was almost down 50 percent from the .258 mark the year prior. This year the decline has accelerated, as a 24.4 K percentage has fueled a .206/.325/.338 start. That's not a terrible strikeout rate, but consider that coming into the year, that mark for his career sat at just 17.5 percent. This one is a bit of a mystery, as there really is not much in his batted ball data to suggest that he should be off to this sort of start. The flyball rate is actually up significantly, and his 39.2 percent hard hit rate, while not elite, is actually higher than his career average. I expect then with a .266 BABIP, that he'll start to get a bit luckier on balls in play, and his seven percent HR/FB rate should trend up. That said, in 12-team mixed redraft leagues, I wouldn't blame you for simply cutting Votto with how bad he's been. It's incredible to think that the Reds are still on the hook for $107 million through 2023 after this season.

Jake Odorizzi, SP, MIN

With 20 consecutive scoreless innings over three starts, Odorizzi has dropped his ERA from 4.37 to 2.32 in the span of a couple weeks. Sure, one of the starts was against Detroit, but the other two came in New York (albeit the Yankees' lineup is rather depleted) and at home against a powerful Astros team. Odorizzi has seen his velocity improve across all his offerings, including his fastball that has gone from 91.1 to 92.4 mph on average year over year. He's still a flyball pitcher, and that is somewhat troubling considering it's unlikely he will be able to maintain anywhere near a 3.8 percent HR/FB rate over the course of the year. To me, Odorizzi is a guy who fits very nicely at the back-end of the rotation, not the front end. The xFIP certainly doesn't buy what he's selling, as that mark sits at 4.48 and is probably a good predictor of what we can expect the rest of the way.

Domingo German, SP, NYY

We knew the Yankees were going to have rotation injuries this year, which would lead to pulling guys from the minors, but I sure didn't see German becoming an indispensable member of the rotation. To me, he was lumped firmly in a group that included Chance Adams, Jonathan Loaisiga, Luis Cessa and others. Tough to distinguish one from another, but German has emerged as a favorite to remain in the rotation for the season. After putting up a 5.57 ERA in 85.2 innings last year, German is 7-1 this season with a 2.70 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, and 2.1 BB/9 despite losing a full mph from his fastball. It's tough to figure out what is truly different this year, as his batted ball data and velocity yield no revelations. His swinging strike rate is actually down year-over-year from 14.9 to 12.9%. His control is definitely better, and it seems the command has improved as well, and certainly the HR rate drop from 1.6 per nine innings to 0.83 is significant. German's 3.93 xFIP is probably a decent predictor of what we can expect the rest of the way, though the wins should continue to be there as the Yankees get guys like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton back over the next several weeks.

Caleb Smith, SP, MIA

Smith is a guy I liked as a sleeper coming off an injury-shortened season in which he posted a 10.2 K/9. I thought that if he was healthy and could somehow improve his shaky control (2018 – 3.8 BB/9), the Marlins could have something. Smith also posted a 2.39 ERA in Triple-A the year prior, so there seemed to be some potential with the southpaw. In our 2019 preseason outlook, we alluded to his 50.8 FB percentage as a potential issue, and to his credit, he's cut that mark to 43.2 percent this year, while elevating his swinging strike rate to an elite 16.7 percent. As a point of reference, only Blake Snell has a higher rate in the big leagues at 19.3 percent. The Marlins likely had no idea what they had in Smith when they acquired him from the Yankees in 2017 in what was at the time, an inconsequential deal, but now he's headed toward being an All-Star.

Reynaldo Lopez, SP, CHW

Among qualified starters, no one outside of Matt Harvey has a worse ERA than Lopez's 6.38, which is highly disappointing a year after he posted a solid 3.91 ERA in 32 starts. In hindsight though, there was some luck involved in 2018's stat line, as Lopez posted a 4.63 FIP with modest ratios, including a 7.2 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9. Like everyone it seems, Lopez has bumped his K/9 up this year, way up in his case to a 10.0 mark, but also like a lot of guys, the homers have come with far greater frequency (1.9 HR/9), and coupled with a worse walk rate (4.5 BB/9), the results have been underwhelming. Lopez is allowing more fly balls, and his hard hit rate is up over 2018. He's also down in velocity 1.3 mph on average, and his slider, which graded as a plus pitch in 2018, has turned the opposite direction this year. Lopez did toss 7.2 innings and allowed one run to pick up the win Monday (not reflected in the above numbers), and that gives him QSs in five of his last six outings, but he'll need to improve his control and figure out lefties (.363 BAA coming into Monday's game) to sustain his recent improvement.

Kenley Jansen, RP, LAD

Jansen has seen his velocity dip in each of the past three seasons now, but his metrics do remain strong, including a 12.3 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9. For the second straight year, though, Jansen's issue has been commanding his cutter on a consistent basis, as he's continued the trend began last year in allowing too many home runs – 2.0 HR/9 this year, 1.6 in 2018. One really bad outing has Jansen's ERA at 4.42, but while he's probably on the tail end of his prime (if not past it), his WHIP stands at an excellent 0.98, he has 12 saves and is in no danger of losing his job. I watch at least 95 percent of the Dodgers' games, and while the drop in velocity is noticeable, it's even more noticeable that he's missing up in the zone far more frequently with the cutter, and hitters are punishing him. That seems to be something that might be correctable, so I'm cautiously optimistic. It should be interesting to see whether the Dodgers pursue Craig Kimbrel once the draft passes early next month and draft pick compensation is eliminated, but I'm thinking it doesn't happen for a couple reasons – money, and the fact neither guy would want to be a setup man for the other.

Apologies for not covering guys you've been pleasantly (or not) surprised by. Feel free to bring up names in the comments section.