Mound Musings: A Look at Pitching in the AL West

Spring Training is underway, and – cross your fingers – we are hopefully headed for the scheduled Opening Day and a full 162-game season. This will be the second of six columns briefly looking at the pitching staff in each division. Just be aware, even if the schedule moves forward as hoped, the pitching plans for most, if not all, teams will be modified. Playing just 60 games in 2020, MLB starting pitchers did not come close to a normal innings workload, and there was no minor league season, so those pitchers saw even less work. Under any other approach, practically all pitchers would be facing an innings cap. Teams will need to address that. So, let's take a look at the:

American League West

Houston Astros – The once dominant pitching staff is but a shadow of its former self. Gerrit Cole wears pinstripes now, and Justin Verlander will miss 2021 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. That's a lot of quality innings to try and replace. They aren't completely without quality. Zack Greinke has been winning games for years, and despite a few more gray hairs, he will probably do it again in 2021. I can't deny his accomplishments, but he has always been a pitcher who enjoys more success than I expect. Beyond Greinke, the rotation looks a little different. I have always liked Lance McCullers, but he missed all of 2019 (Tommy John surgery) and tossed just 55 innings last year. Durability has never been prominent on his resume, so they will likely need to monitor his workload. They will be followed by a couple of fairly well-regarded young arms. Framber Valdez, the only lefty in the group, has been tossing hints that he could be a very useful starter in the rotation. He still needs better command and more consistent secondary stuff to truly take the next step, but a breakout year could be in the cards. Jose Urquidy and Cristian Javier are up next. Both have good (not great) stuff, but they can throw strikes, and that's a plus. Urquidy is probably the safer play (marginally) right now, as Javier is homer-prone, but both are back-of-the-rotation types at best Luis Garcia will get a few starts too, but he isn't all that appealing. And, it could get better someday. Forrest Whitley actually has a Verlanderish ceiling, but he's still learning the trade and probably won't arrive until late this season, if then. He's got it all. Big arm, lively fastball, very good slider and curve, and the real gem, an exceptional change, but he is wildly inconsistent with his whole repertoire.

The Astros bullpen is also a lot thinner these days. Roberto Osuna was waived, so they will be led by last year's interim closer, Ryan Pressly. He was an exceptional set-up man and appears to be competent as a ninth-inning guy. They signed Pedro Baez who will likely combine with Joe Smith in set-up roles. Both are very experienced and capable bridge-builders. The wildcard here is Josh James. He has wipeout stuff when he's healthy, and throwing it for strikes, but neither has been the case often enough.

Recapping the Astros:

The arm to roster: Take a flyer on Framber Valdez. He could make a big splash.

He'll likely be overpriced: I still don't believe Zack Greinke is a sure thing.

Best of the bullpen: Ryan Pressly is easily the best of a pretty thin group.

Los Angeles Angels – The best player in the game is arguably Mike Trout, yet he has no World Series ring to show for it. It's pretty simple. The Angels' pitching of late has been, on the whole, awful. Their No.1 starter with regard to skill set, without question, is Shohei Ohtani. He missed 2019, at least the pitching part, recovering from Tommy John surgery. He tossed just a couple innings in 2020, but he was clearly not ready. If he eventually makes it all the way back, he's a top 10 starter, but that's a big if, and I personally think being a fulltime DH is negatively impacting his mound work. That leaves the heavy workload to a couple of relatively consistent underperformers. Dylan Bundy improved a bit after coming over from Baltimore but not enough for me to pursue him on draft day. He's capable of stringing together some good innings but he can also implode with the best of them. Andrew Heaney flashes some pretty good stuff at times, too but he has dealt with chronic health issues, and he can toss some pretty miserable starts into the mix when he's not clicking. Again, I simply don't trust him. The next spot belongs to a capable young arm, but Griffin Canning has suffered from elbow issues that put put the high risk label on him. I'd take him but only at a discounted price. The rotation will probably be filled out by veterans Jose Quintana and perhaps Alex Cobb. Cobb was once worth consideration, but neither of them are what I would consider viable options for a fantasy rotation. Drafting an Angels' starter is not for the faint of heart. Maybe you'll get lucky, but a contingency plan is a good idea. Dynasty/Keeper players might want to watch for lefty Reid Detmers, who could be fast racked with the need for starting pitching depth this year.

For the past few seasons, the Angels' shaky starting pitchers have turned the game over to an equally shaky bullpen. It could be somewhat better with the arrival of new closer Raisel Iglesias. He's likely to be on a fairly long leash and will generally get the ball in the ninth inning, but there is an option still lurking in the shadows. The guy I actually like in their pen is Ty Buttrey. He impressed me a couple years ago but has disappointed when asked to finish games. Felix Pena and Mike Mayers are also likely to see some work in key situations but don't look fantasy relevant at this point.

Recapping the Angels:

The arm to roster: Shohei Ohtani has the highest ceiling by far, but will we ever see it?

He'll likely be overpriced: I don't think Dylan Bundy can justify his likely price tag.

Best of the bullpen: Raisel Iglesias, but Ty Buttrey remains a dark horse IMHO.

Oakland A's – The first two teams we looked at in this division didn't offer a lot of pitching promise, but now that we move on to Oakland, things get a bit more interesting. They have a very nice collection of starting pitchers, led by young lefty Jesus Luzardo. He has a very lively arm, and a well-developed change, which sets him apart. His third pitch is coming, and if he gets that down, the sky's the limit for this guy. He's worth pursuing aggressively. I also like Sean Manaea. He had shoulder surgery after the 2018 season and was expected to miss all of 2019, but he came back quicker than expected and looked very good, so hopefully the shoulder woes are behind him. I see him developing into a solid starter, and he might offer some value on draft day. I have also touted Frankie Montas. He caught my eye in 2018 and was on his way to a big year in 2019 before being handed a suspension that cost him virtually the entire second half. He just never got it together last year, but it's still there, and a bounce back is very possible. Next in line is. Chris Bassitt, and while he put together a very impressive 2020, I'm not as sold on him as I am on the aforementioned trio. I still think he will need to mix in more off-speed stuff to maintain a level of success. The senior member of the staff just re-signed with the A's. Mike Fiers is really more of a journeyman in my eyes, but his rather pedestrian stuff plays up a bit in pitcher-friendly Oakland, and he does provide one thing that will be crucial this year – innings. One more name to watch is the highly regarded A.J. Puk. There is a chance he could work out of the bullpen as they attempt to monitor the oft-injured southpaw's workload. But, if he stays healthy, he could see a few starts, too, and he has the stuff to be effective.

The A's have consistently fashioned a bullpen full of veterans who fill their roles quite nicely. Unfortunately, arguably the best closer in the game today, Liam Hendriks, has moved on via free agency. As they often do, the A's waited while the free agent market sorted itself out and then signed Trevor Rosenthal. He was a standout a couple years ago, then imploded, before returning to form last year. If we get the "good" Rosenthal, and I think we will, he should be very effective. Jake Diekman has really established himself as a reliable set-up guy and should be a solid caddy for Rosenthal. Veterans Sergio Romo, Yusmeiro Petit and J.B. Wendelken (as well as Puk) give them a lot of flexibility, including the potential for multiple innings when needed.

Recapping the A's:

The arm to roster: Sean Manaea cold come at a discount and looks ready to step it up.

He'll likely be overpriced: I think we could see some regression from Chris Bassitt.

Best of the bullpen: Fireballer Trevor Rosenthal steps in for Liam Hendriks.

Seattle Mariners – The Mariners are quietly but steadily building a contending team. They are probably a year or two away, but it's time to start looking at the pieces. Technically, Marco Gonzales will be at the top of the rotation, but I may be targeting veteran James Paxton on draft day.  Gonzalez is not a true No. 1, but the soft tosser has been consistently improving. He can help in the middle of a fantasy rotation. Paxton, on the other hand, is capable of being an ace. I say this too often, but it's all about staying healthy for him. His fastball velocity is reportedly back, and if opposing managers are leery of adding him, I'll take a shot. I expected better from Yusei Kikuchi last year, but it was another season of lackluster peripherals. That said, there were positives. His pitch mix is evolving; he added a cutter that helps against righty swingers, and his command is improving. He could be a viable guy for the back of your rotation. Justus Sheffield was marginally better in his second season, but the reviews are mixed. He has a nice slider, but overall, his repertoire is just average, and his command still lags behind. I like that he keeps the ball on the ground, but I don't see significant upside. Right now, the fifth spot looks like the domain of fringy (that may be generous) guys like Justin Dunn, interestingly the only righty in this bunch, or maybe another lefty, Nick Margevicius. I'll pass on both, but here is where the future starts coming into focus. Two kids are on the way. Emerson Hancock and Logan Gilbert may not be major contributors in 2021, but both should be on the radar in dynasty/keeper leagues.

The bullpen probably has more to prove than the rotation. It looks pretty thin right now, with Rafael Montero the likely best bet to close games this year. He has the raw stuff to do the job, but he hasn't been the model of consistency. Another possibility is Keynan Middleton, who flashed some potential with the Angels before the injuries set in. They'll likely be preceded in games by a collection of nondescript arms with little or no appeal in fantasy circles. Of note, the M's did make a move toward the future recently when they signed Ken Giles. He won't pitch this year after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but he's a proven closer and is likely to be a factor in 2022.

Recapping the Mariners:

The arm to roster: He's risky, but I like James Paxton to stay healthy and productive.

He'll likely be overpriced: Justus Sheffield lacks significant upside in my eyes.

Best of the bullpen: When it shakes out, I think Yoshihisa Hirano grabs the gig.

Texas Rangers – We conclude our assessment of preseason pitching in the AL West with the Texas Rangers. They will enter the season with Kyle Gibson at the top of their rotation, but his average stuff can be a little too hittable, making him more of an innings eater. That will help the Rangers more than a fantasy team. After Gibson, the starters get a bit more speculative. Maybe Mike Foltynewicz can get things back in order. He looked good in 2018 but has otherwise struggled, so he is a wildcard at best. They also brought in Kohei Arihara, who enjoyed success in the Japanese Pacific League. He profiles like many pitchers from Japan with a wide assortment of pitches and decent command, so he's a possible contributor, but he is still just a midrotation starter. The rotation will be rounded out by guys like Jordan Lyles, who fits as a fifth starter or swingman for them, but has limited value in fantasy circles. Youngsters Dane Dunning and Kyle Cody should also be a part of the rotation. Dunning fits as a lower upside Number 4, but Cody doesn't offer all that much. They will all need to stay healthy, because lack of rotation depth is an ongoing concern as their best pitching prospects, Hans Crouse and Cole Winn, are probably at least a year away from being ready after the minor league season was wiped out in 2020.

I still think closer Jose Leclerc is a potential bright spot in this bullpen. I was high on him when it was apparent the Rangers needed a new endgamer a couple years ago, and I continued to see a lot to like when he was struggling. I'm not ready to give up on him. The other name to know here is Ian Kennedy. He enjoyed success as a closer after moving to the bullpen, and he makes an ideal insurance policy for Leclerc. There has also been talk of Jonathan Hernandez being a ninth-inning option, but I think he will be more useful in a primary set-up role. Others being counted upon in what looks like a pen with some potential, include Brett Martin, Joely Rodriguez and maybe Kolby Allard. Given the weak rotation, the bullpen will probably be heavily relied upon.

Recapping the Rangers:

The arm to roster: Maybe take a flyer on Kohei Arihara, but he's no guarantee.

He'll likely be overpriced: Kyle Gibson helps more in Texas than on a fantasy team.

Best of the bullpen: Jose Leclerc has the tools to be a closer. He needs to show it.

Next week we'll evaluate pitching staffs in the NL Central.